Turning a corner or a False Dawn? Towers and it's future

[Matt.GC]

I've wanted to create this thread for a while based on discussion in a number of threads since Merlin were taken private. There's been a lot of discussion around the future direction of delisted Merlin, fun fair rides, opening hours, events, the addition of Wickerman, the experience of the accomodation etc and all have their respective threads for discussion.

But a subject that keeps cropping up is what all this means overall for Towers and the direction it's going in where there seems to be quite a gulf of opinions that can't be explored with wider discussion elsewhere as they would derail the threads they're posted in. So I thought it would be interesting to hear your views here.

It's been a few years since Merlin went private. In 2021, after the Covid 2020 that almost never was, most of us were surprised at the immediate change in direction that many would have thought would not have been possible from the PLC days beforehand.

We had fun fair flats drafted in, which was either seen as an admission that the park had removed far too many attractions over the years or that it would just be a temp measure to improve capacity post pandemic. Although unacceptable 10-4 days remained, they were far fewer in number and we saw some of the longest opening hours we've seen ever, sometimes almost seeming quite excessive. Then we had the events and investment in entertainment which seemed to come from nowhere and was a complete reversal of previous strategies. We also had food vans propping up the woeful permanent food and bev offering. Wickerman has broken with tradition in having work on its theming take place every year since it opened to keep it looking as it should rather than the usual strategy or cutting the ribbon and walking away to leave it's theming to rot.

In the years that have followed we've seen further breaks with tradition. The gimmick that was the unsustainably cheap as chips Season Pass has been binned off and a much more sensible ATAP offering has been brought back in. Most of us have been well aware that Nemesis has been reaching the end of its life for a while now, yet millions are being spent retracking it! Duel has finally been put out of it's misery, but it looks unlikely we'll see TV screens and an ageing IP, they're actually doing the previously unthinkable of investing in it just to make it better. Talking of indoor attractions, last year they put a planning application in for an indoor coaster - in coaster corner no less - an attraction they may have considered unmarketable in the past that actually fills a hole in the lineup built in an area no one ever thought the GP would set foot in ever again.

Outside of Towers, we've seen an expansion of Chessington that includes the (previously unthinkable) addition of a B&M and Thorpe are getting a Mack hyper. So there's been a lot of posts around giving them a chance, green shoots, turning a corner, hope for the future and alike.

But I put to you today that I'm not so sure the leopard has changed it's spots all that much. Chessingtons new coaster appears to be yet another low capacity attraction and we all know Chessington needs low throughput rides like a hole in the head. Thorpe's Brake Run: The Ride seem to have old school PLC Merlin's finger prints all over it, taking the height record for no other reason than for marketing, leaving us with something so short in relation to its height that it needs a massive brake run to slow it down.

Fun Fair flats could be staying at Towers for a third year with not a single permanent replacement in sight. Opening hours seem to be being rolled back again. Nemesis seems to be coming back with all the usual formulaic Merlin bells and whistles attached to it's theme. It's been years now since we saw so many shop and food outlet closures and these still remain. Food is so bad that it's being contracted out to an external company. The hotels are in the worse state they've ever been in whilst prices rise to eye watering levels. Although blamed on PLC Merlin, Walliams Cuckoo Dungeon Land remains in an embarrassing state. Scarefest has been lackluster and stale recently. Outside of Wickerman, fixing something at Towers seems to involve some new Leak Signs and lashings of purple paint and little else. There's fears for the future of the Monorail, Blade and Enterprise. The Rapids is now brand damagingly bad.

Am I being too harsh? Are some of these things just inevitable due to the wheels set in motion years ago? Are they trying to paint the park out of a corner, they just need more time and making mistakes along the way? Do you believe there's a long term wider plan we just don't know what it is? Do the changes in direction with the good stuff give you enough hope that they'll get there in the end?

I'd love to hear your thoughts.

 

[Dave]

There are some positive signs in that rides that need refurbishment have had some money spent, and an SBNO ride is set to reopen. Also the events have improved overall with Xmas and Octoberfest offering more, though Scarefest has deteriorated.

On the other hand flat ride investment is none existent, the hotels continue to deteriorate yet prices are increasing and F&B has been outsourced with a 10% increase in prices on top of the already inflation busting price rises Merlin introduced last year.

At the moment, overall I would say things have not improved all that much, there may be signs that it could but more evidence needed.

 

[havaska]

I mean, the games in the queue line for Spinball have been removed repaired and replaced. That’s something I never expected to ever see. So I feel the green shoots are justified.

 

[AT86]

At the moment I am quietly confident that a corner has been turned. It’s early days of course, and the arrival of a new CEO could mean a change in strategy that de-rails things before they really get started.

But in terms of investment I am struggling to remember a time even in Tussauds days when we saw three consecutive seasons with the level of spending on the likes of Duel replacement (£3-4million?), Nemesis replacement (£8million?) and Project Horizon (£12million).

Now of course they are catching up on the last few years when investment has been so poor, but if they continue to work on the existing attractions (Rapids, monorail, Dungeons) whilst investing in new stuff and maintain the operating budgets to allow for events then the park will be in a significantly improved state than it was at the end of 2019 when Merlin went private.

 

[Matt N]

It’s an intriguing question for sure.

Personally, I think that this change could be a genuine long-term improvement. You seem quite keen to dismiss the large spate of CAPEX projects across the group as of late, but I would argue that that is a very promising sign in itself.

You may remember that prior to the company going private, Merlin did a big corporate announcement in October 2017 where they stated that they were going to be slashing Resort Theme Park CAPEX by a considerable amount between 2018 and 2022. Things like Wicker Man and Colossos Kampf der Giganten, which I believe had already been committed towards by that point, were not affected, but the company stated that capital expenditure into the Resort Theme Parks was to be decreased by a drastic amount in order to fund the development of new midway attractions and Legoland parks.

And I do think that this took shape to some degree. For instance, Thorpe Park’s management teased towards a “Project 2020”, strongly inferred to be a major coaster being planned for 2020, at a 2017 TTSP event. This never materialised, and I’ve heard rumblings that this was due to Merlin’s RTP-wide reduction of CAPEX. At the time of the private buyout going through in November 2019, no major CAPEX projects were known about or under construction in the entirety of the Resort Theme Parks division, to my knowledge. Until the announcement of Jumanji The Adventure at Gardaland in mid-2021, to open in 2022, last major CAPEX project within the Resort Theme Parks division was Colossos Kampf der Giganten, opened in 2019. Even before COVID, no major projects were planned or known about for the foreseeable future after that. From having viewed John Burton’s LinkedIn page, the recent spate of major CAPEX projects (Jumanji at Gardaland, Jumanji at Chessington, Exodus at Thorpe Park) only entered planning in May 2020, which is after the private buyout occurred.

Before I ramble on for too long about CAPEX, my point is; the very fact that these major CAPEX projects are happening in the first place is a sign of improvement, in my view. We are currently seeing epic CAPEX investment on a scale that we have not seen in years, if not decades, from Merlin, and based on Merlin’s media soundbites prior to the private buyout, I question whether that would have happened had the company not gone private. You can argue for days about whether Nemesis is returning with a formulaic theme, or whether Thorpe’s coaster is too short, or whether Chessington’s coaster has a throughput that’s too low, but I’d argue that the fact that we have these things to argue about in the first place is a sign of improvement given Merlin’s pre-buyout words inferring strongly against the company increasing CAPEX within the Resort Theme Parks division in the way that they have.

In terms of the other things; I also suspect that the massive increase in events, as well as the fair increase in opening hours, is a long term improvement stimulated by the private buyout. Some might argue that this was simply Merlin cashing in on COVID, but you may remember that prior to the pandemic, events like Oktoberfest and the Festival of Thrills were planned for 2020, so events were clearly on the company’s mind even prior to COVID.

As for some of the things being said against the company having “changed its spots”; it is worth noting that some of these are not controlled by Merlin, but are instead managed at a park level. For instance, Scarefest being less than well received last year cannot necessarily be attributed to Merlin, as Alton Towers manages its own events in-house, to my knowledge. The much warmer reception to events like Fright Nights at Thorpe Park also suggests that the lukewarm reception to Scarefest 2022 isn’t down to Merlin. I’d also argue that maintenance and how the parks choose to maintain their attractions is not necessarily controlled by Merlin, and I’m led to believe that the RetroSquad was a park level decision rather than a Merlin level one. As for why they haven’t been replaced yet; you’re never realistically going to get multiple permanent flat rides built alongside the massive spate of major CAPEX investments we’re currently receiving, so I’d give them a few more years on that one.

So in answer to the question; I’d argue that we could definitely be seeing things improve for the better. The increases in CAPEX and events do suggest an overall prosperous upward path, in my view, even if not everything has seemingly changed at first glance.

 

[BarryZola]

I was pleasantly surprised when they didn't decide to have closed days on Mondays and Tuesdays (for example) at non-peak times for the upcoming season. I think that could have been a real possibility under the old ownership. I am generally a pessimist but even I get the general feeling that the purse strings seem to generally be slightly loosening at the moment.

 

[Zeock]

I believe that Merlin are turning a corner due to the major investment that they are putting in to all their parks, especially the Nemesis retrack, which they certainly did not need to do, but by doing so allowed what is commonly referred to as the best coaster in the UK to keep going for many years to come.
However, there are places where they are still going downhill, such as in food and beverage.

 

[Danscott22]

My thoughts align pretty much with @Matt N 's post. I remember thinking year upon year that none of the Merlin owned parks were getting the investment they deserve, and here we are in 2023, with the timeline from 2023 including 5 new coasters (Exodus, Mandrill Mayhem, Legoland 2 duelling coasters, Horizon??), a SBNO ride re-opening and a massive dark ride refresh at Towers. It was only in 2018 that Dark Forest was opening at 11, and Forbidden Valley was opening at 12, and the future really did look quite bleak.

 

[Matt.GC]

Some interesting opinions here so far guys.

There's a lot of noise tonight, and rightly so, around the hotels at Towers. Just when it looked like it couldn't get any worse, the situation does exactly that. The rate of decline in accommodation quality has been staggering the last couple of years.

Granted, we have some shiny new hardware on its way, but is this not investment that effectively we should have had if PLC Merlin hadn't spent most of a decade ripping lead out of the roof? Have they not hit such a low only a few years ago that we'll celebrate anything that remotely resembles some form of major investment cycle the likes of which we had not very long ago at all anyway? So even if we're back to where we were, say, 8 years ago - is that a good thing or was it inevitable anyway in some form or another?

Again, I could be thinking too bleak (which I naturally do about everything anyway) but the early Merlin years started this way with major investments right out of the blocks and then it ended with an era that made the late Broome and DIC years look like small little wobbles by comparison.

It will of course take a long time and a hell of a lot of investment to sort the place out after so much damage has been done over many years. Towers is not just grappling with lack of investment in big new projects and the last minute PLC Merlin cuts, but a lack of theming maintenance, aging infrastructure and attractions, shuttered food outlets and failure to replace retired rides etc which has all built up over a number of years, the best part of a decade actually. So it could be argued that I'm just not giving them enough time. But looking at the lack of progress with park food (both quality, range and selection of outlets) and the shockinig and break neck decline of the hotels coupled with the 'just slap purple paint on it' strategy of cosmetic maintenance, I have my concerns.

If there are wonderful grand plans coming over the hill, we of course won't see much of it yet as we've really only had 2 seasons of the new era. But when I look at the upcoming season, other than new Duel and being able to see Nemesis construction, I can't think of many compelling reasons to visit?

 

[DistortAMG]

For me, the level of investment going on right now across the RTP's says some corner has been turned. Not sure what corner has been turned, but something has changed. Large investments happening right now across all parks, is unprecedented in the history of Merlin. This has never before happened like it is happening now. I do not think it is a coincidence that this has happened after Merlin went private.

Some investments may not be the most well thought out or ideal, Jumanji and Thorpe's coaster spring to mind, but while they may not have got the green light and funding until much later in the process and after Merlin went private, they were more than likely in development in some capacity well before Merlin went private, due to their large scale and the time that is need to bring such large projects to life. So it is very natural for them have hallmarks of the dark ages, seeing as a lot of work probably have been done on the designs, in said dark ages and under a very different Merlin.

Nemesis and Duel, being refurbishments were probably not even conceived let alone green lit until after Merlin was privatised, so their hallmarks are far more different, and probably would not have happened in the dark ages. I think they show a very different direction, they are being developed under a totally different Merlin, without any overlap from the dark days. Very different to the Chessington and Thorpe cases I would say. This is before we even get started on Sub Terra and Horizon. I think all of these attractions, show indications of the direction the company might be headed.

As for fairground rides, the park clearly needed stuff quickly to boost capacity, very possibly a multi year contract for the park. I think the proper large case investments are more indicative of a direction than these.

I think the direction is different, but it takes a long time to change the direction of such a large ship such as Merlin, but the early signs are promising. Rome was not built in a day and all the problems created over a long time cannot be fixed overnight or within a few seasons. But it does appear steps are starting to head in the right direction in some key areas

Yes, the lead was ripped out the roof over decades. The fact it is being put back is what is remarkable.

 

[Benjsh]

I'm personally more optimistic for the park than I have been in a long long time. That's not to say they have sorted everything out because that's clearly not the case. However with Nemmy V2, Haunted House V3, NST comeback and Project Horizon on the....well horizon, then we can't be overly critical can we? Wickerman is great too of course and Gangster Granny is a perfectly good family dark ride. We can't forget those.

Just would like to see the back of the Retrosquad tbh. I sort of understood the need for them at the time but they never sat well with me from the off despite that. They don't belong at Towers. It cheapens the whole place.

 

[RIPCorky]

This seasons ride line up is the weakest in many a year as it stands, imagine if things don't go to plan and they end up opening weekend with no Haunted House, Nemesis, Sub Terra, and Enterprise? Add to that the ever unreliable Air, Thirteen, Hex, Rita and that fair ground ride in FV that kept breaking.
Even the smiler looks and rides like it's double it's age. Thank goodness they've had the foresight to preserve Nemesis

They've a long way to go before this park is back to it's former glory. Hopefully with project horizon they learn from past mistakes on recent coaster builds. Build quality (smiler) that's reliable (Thirteen) and with a decent throughput.

 

[jon81uk]

Generally there seems to be improvements in capital expenditure but not in operating budgets. Single biggest thing AT could do to improve right now would be better staff wages. Get more staff and employees who care about the product they are selling and service should improve. If someone felt well paid and proud of where they worked I’d hope some of the bad hotel food examples would go away as staff would more likely to say, I’m not serving that it looks terrible.

I was pleasantly surprised when they didn't decide to have closed days on Mondays and Tuesdays (for example) at non-peak times for the upcoming season.

Personally I think one closed weekday but longer hours on the open days is better.

 

[jon81uk]

Generally there seems to be improvements in capital expenditure but not in operating budgets. Single biggest thing AT could do to improve right now would be better staff wages. Get more staff and employees who care about the product they are selling and service should improve. If someone felt well paid and proud of where they worked I’d hope some of the bad hotel food examples would go away as staff would more likely to say, I’m not serving that it looks terrible.

I think a large amount of current issues can be traced back to underpaid staff and just not enough staff and Aramark appear to be going to make that worse not better.

I was pleasantly surprised when they didn't decide to have closed days on Mondays and Tuesdays (for example) at non-peak times for the upcoming season.

Personally I think one closed weekday but longer hours on the open days is better.

 

[AT86]

Generally there seems to be improvements in capital expenditure but not in operating budgets.

I would argue that operating budgets are significantly improved in the last few years and based on the opening hours for 2023 that have been posted they continue to be held or perhaps even raised slightly further.

Staggered openings seem to be a thing of the past thank goodness, suggesting more money in the pot to run the park.

Last year there were 3 extra events during the main season compared to before Merlin went private and looking at the 2023 hours there are no 4pm closes in June or July and only 4 days in September (the week between the schools going back and Oktoberfest starting). Even last year there were some Oktoberfest dates that had 4pm closes, these seem to have gone for the upcoming season.

I’d say things are moving in the right direction when it comes to operating budgets.

 

[jon81uk]

I’d say things are moving in the right direction when it comes to operating budgets.

Lets see what things are like in the main season, I suppose with F&B handed to Aramark its their problem now but getting all food outlets staffed and open as well as decent bar and restaurant service levels is the next issue. So its staffing budgets that will still need to be the sticking point.

 

[AT86]

Lets see what things are like in the main season, I suppose with F&B handed to Aramark its their problem now but getting all food outlets staffed and open as well as decent bar and restaurant service levels is the next issue. So its staffing budgets that will still need to be the sticking point.

I suspect that all departments except F&B will be staffed ok this year. If I was a F&B returner I would be applying to other departments to remain employed by Merlin, leaving Aramark with more of an uphill battle to employ people on their pitiful wage offering.

 

[jon81uk]

I suspect that all departments except F&B will be staffed ok this year. If I was a F&B returner I would be applying to other departments to remain employed by Merlin, leaving Aramark with more of an uphill battle to employ people on their pitiful wage offering.

Its just unfortunate that F&B is the single biggest issue across the park and hotels and I don't think anyone on this forum has the same faith in Aramark that Merlin do.

 

[ChristmasPud]

especially the Nemesis retrack, which they certainly did not need to do, but by doing so allowed what is commonly referred to as the best coaster in the UK to keep going for many years to come.

So they certainly did need to do it, or they'd lose one of their major assets at the park. Like we saw the necessity to replace old flat rides and the short sighted decision to ignore this problem came back to haunt them.

But I think definitely Duel and Nemesis show they are turning a corner as far as banishing this terrible "marketing says no" excuse for not maintaining their attractions previously.

It's not cheap but it is surely affordable for Merlin, who are building new Legolands every few years and wasted millions £££s on unnecessary /short lived additions like DBGT and Sub Terra. They will reap the rewards now that they're investing in their older bread and butter attractions.

Looking optimistic

 

[Matt N]

Again, I could be thinking too bleak (which I naturally do about everything anyway) but the early Merlin years started this way with major investments right out of the blocks and then it ended with an era that made the late Broome and DIC years look like small little wobbles by comparison.

That’s a fair argument, but one thing I would say is that I feel that the circumstances are very different now for multiple reasons.

The first is that from about 2010 onwards, I gather that Merlin were positioning the company to be floated on the stock market. Even though Merlin wasn’t floated on the stock market until late 2013, Nick Varney expressed very clear intentions of making the company a PLC from about 2010 onwards. This would naturally have affected the way in which the company invested and managed its business; Merlin would probably have tried to resort to some of the ways of a PLC from that point to try to make themselves attractive on the stock market in the coming years. Looking at the history of Merlin, I think that there is a correlation between when the “decline” is perceived to have begun (based on the hearsay of those who were around at the time, I’d pinpoint this to be somewhere around 2011… I don’t know if you’d agree) and when the company started making noises about being floated on the stock market (also in around 2010-2011, to my knowledge). This time, the company has gone private following a 6 year stint on the stock market that was deemed counterintuitive to the company’s prosperity, so I highly doubt that Merlin will be positioning to go public again any time soon.

The second thing I would say is that there is one major catalyst that massively amplified things and caused decline from the middle of the last decade… the Smiler crash. You can say what you want, but that crash had a truly catastrophic effect; the Merlin attendance graph suggests that in 2016 (the nadir of the post-crash years, and the first full season post-crash), attendance was around 25% lower than it had been in 2014, and it should be noted that 2014 was not an overly high year in itself according to the same graph (~2.3 million, which was actually the lowest post-Merlin year prior to the Smiler crash). When you sustain a massive attendance drop like that in such a short amount of time, you’re never going to escape without severe measures being taken. 2016’s attendance figure was 1.75 million according to the graph, which, 2020 aside, is the lowest year since at least 1984… that’s really quite a remarkable stat when you put it like that, and I think it shows that the park came closer to total disaster than many realise in the years post-Smiler. With this in mind, I think the cuts that happened were inescapable.

Had the Smiler crash not happened, I certainly think that we would not have seen rides like CATCF, Ripsaw and possibly even The Flume close, I think that we would not have seen shows like The Pirates of Mutiny Bay and Ice Age 4D mothballed, and I think that we would not have seen things like 4pm closes and midweek closed days.

Also, I’d be intrigued to know; why do you feel that the post-Smiler years were so vastly worse than any other time in the park’s history? I admittedly wasn’t there for this era, so my this is entirely based on the hearsay of others, but from what I’ve heard, the Charterhouse/DIC Tussauds years don’t sound any better. In 2004 in particular, Charterhouse culled rides at a rate beyond the rate at which Merlin culled them in 2016, and I also gather that events like Scarefest were unceremoniously cancelled in 2004, which never happened under Merlin. I admit that I could be wrong there, as I do not have first hand experience of this era, but that’s just my opinion based on what people have previously said about the mid-2000s at Alton Towers.