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UK politics general discussion

Matt N said:
Boris Johnson and the cabinet have insisted that he will soldier on, but his position is growing more unstable…
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Boris and some of the cabinet have - their public comments of support are few and far between at present. Even Rishi Sunak's tweet in the last hour didn't directly address Johnson himself.



Let's not forget Oliver Dowden isn't just chairman too, he was also a cabinet member. He was also one of Boris's big supporters for leadership along with Robert Jenrick and Rishi Sunak. The silence from the majority of them at the moment will no doubt be somewhat worrying Johnson to say the least...
 
Losing a 24,000 majority in a seat that has been Conservative since its creation is going to cause alarm bells to start ringing for many Conservative MPs. You can't cover things like that up in the same way you can attempt to cover up and gloss over parties and policies.
 
rob666 said:
If our Matt isn't optimistic about Boris's chances, what hope can the man possibly hold?
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I mean, he could hold on, I don’t deny that, but it does look like the Conservative party vultures are circling him now…

The thing is, though, what can they do to remove him? Another confidence vote won’t be possible until 2023, so what can they do in the interim if they’re so desperate to get shot of him?
 
Yes today has seen some big blows for the conservatives, Devon is a massive Tory stronghold for them to loose that seat is crazy and with that sort of majority turning it over with a big majority like that was amazing and the LibDems should be very happy. As for Wakefield going Labour again, it was hardly a surprise but hopefully it's a sign of things to come.
 
Matt N said:
I mean, he could hold on, I don’t deny that, but it does look like the Conservative party vultures are circling him now…

The thing is, though, what can they do to remove him? Another confidence vote won’t be possible until 2023, so what can they do in the interim if they’re so desperate to get shot of him?
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You find a good comrade with a small ice axe.
Shot of him...good idea though.
 
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Random question; out of interest, which party holds your local political seat and how safe are they?

I live in the Forest of Dean political constituency, which is a Conservative seat held by Mark Harper. Even though this constituency has had a Labour MP in the past, the Conservatives’ vote share has increased every election since they first won the seat, and I’d say we’re bordering on being a safe Tory stronghold now; Mark Harper (Conservative) had close to 60% of the vote in 2019, and his next closest opponent (Labour) had only 28%… it would require at least a 15% swing for there to even be a chance of the Conservatives being unseated at the next election, and our seat has never seen a swing anywhere near that big before.

In that sense, I almost feel like my vote is a bit pointless here; I will of course still vote at the next election, but I do almost wonder what the point of me voting Labour is if our seat will most likely vote Tory by a huge majority…
 
Matt N said:
Random question; out of interest, which party holds your local political seat and how safe are they?

I live in the Forest of Dean political constituency, which is a Conservative seat held by Mark Harper. Even though this constituency has had a Labour MP in the past, the Conservatives’ vote share has increased every election since they first won the seat, and I’d say we’re bordering on being a safe Tory stronghold now; Mark Harper (Conservative) had close to 60% of the vote in 2019, and his next closest opponent (Labour) had only 28%… it would require at least a 15% swing for there to even be a chance of the Conservatives being unseated at the next election, and our seat has never seen a swing anywhere near that big before.

In that sense, I almost feel like my vote is a bit pointless here; I will of course still vote at the next election, but I do almost wonder what the point of me voting Labour is if our seat will most likely vote Tory by a huge majority…
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My seat is currently Conservative, albeit by 4.8%. It's classed as a red wall seat, although it was a Conservative seat for a good few years before 1992 as well.

Whilst there's a lot of talk about much of the Tory vote just not going out and voting, there's a lot to be said about how the Lib Dems and Labour vote was spread too. The Lib Dems lost their deposit in Wakefield as they all but pushed their votes to Labour. Likewise in Tiverton, Labour lost their deposit and pushed their votes to the Lib Dems. That's the sort of thing that brought the huge swing that we saw last night, especially down in Devon.

Does this mark a turning point in how future elections would be run? It's really difficult to tell at this point. A 15% swing for your constituency for example Matt would've previously been seen as nigh-on impossible to overturn, but under the current situation - not so much.

That's the sort of thing that should really be worrying the Conservative Party, especially if Johnson would still be in power for the next election. Apathetic traditional voters, and opposition parties getting their act together with informal alliances in each constituency with the sole aim of getting rid of him. There'll no doubt be a lot of soul searching over the coming days to work out whether a change of leader can:

a) Put a stop to/reduce such informal voting alliances as parties fight on the merit of their manifestos over previous performance/scandals
b) Have a (remote?) chance of changing the minds of voters in time for a next election

I just cannot see Johnson even remotely being electable in a future General Election, so I think more MPs will struggle to see that maintaining the status quo is the right thing to do. The amusing thing is that if their confidence vote was left to say tonight or Monday, he'd have been out the door. I'm actually wondering whether the extra letters were chucked in by Johnson's supporters to tip the balance for a vote early prior to the election, rather than those who were actually wanting rid.
 
Craig said:
I just cannot see Johnson even remotely being electable in a future General Election, so I think more MPs will struggle to see that maintaining the status quo is the right thing to do. The amusing thing is that if their confidence vote was left to say tonight or Monday, he'd have been out the door. I'm actually wondering whether the extra letters were chucked in by Johnson's supporters to tip the balance for a vote early prior to the election, rather than those who were actually wanting rid.
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I think the only thing which will save Boris Johnson's skin now is in fact a General Election.

We know he's not a man of honour. We know his primary interest is saving his own skin. We know that he has no interest in a life in politics after he loses the keys to Number 10 and absolutely will not give those up, even under circumstances surely any previous PM would have done.

Imagine after clinging on throughout the Summer period, and perhaps with a few further resignations or maybe just general bad news, around conference season Graham Brady informs the PM he has x many letters asking that the rule regarding how long a leader is safe for following a vote of confidence - and should he decide not to resign he will have to make the change (this is rumoured to be the discussion which finally lead to Theresa May setting her timetable for stepping down in 2019).

His options are:
  1. Resign
  2. Face an imminent vote of confidence which presumably would represent a real threat this time, and be forced out
  3. Advise Her Majesty that the time is right for her to dissolve parliament and for a general election to be held
I think he'd go for option 3 and gamble his dissenting MPs fall back in line in the name of winning an election.

At best, he would win another commanding majority off the back of whatever campaign it is Lynton Crosbie is cooking up. His authority would then be pretty much absolute for a fresh period.

At worst, he'd lose and perhaps even lose his constituency, making history again (not that he has any intention of staying in politics after his time as PM ends, of course).

It'd be a fascinating campaign. Even more so if Durham Police decide to issue fines...
 
Yup, completely agree that an election is a possibility, there were many who thought that was a possibility after the confidence vote. However, I think there's also been a short sharp shock that their "old faithful" selling points such as Brexit and immigration just don't have the cut through that they had before. Don't even get me started on the imperial measures rubbish.

When people are seeing their fuel at £2 a litre, fuel and food prices at silly levels too - anything else is a really hard sell. It's even more difficult when you're the party that's been in power for 12 years promising "change".

Whatever happens I agree it'll be interesting as hell though, especially if tactical voting like yesterday actually becomes a thing, rather than something that's just talked about without actually really happening.
 
Craig said:
Yup, completely agree that an election is a possibility, there were many who thought that was a possibility after the confidence vote. However, I think there's also been a short sharp shock that their "old faithful" selling points such as Brexit and immigration just don't have the cut through that they had before. Don't even get me started on the imperial measures rubbish.

When people are seeing their fuel at £2 a litre, fuel and food prices at silly levels too - anything else is a really hard sell. It's even more difficult when you're the party that's been in power for 12 years promising "change".

Whatever happens I agree it'll be interesting as hell though, especially if tactical voting like yesterday actually becomes a thing, rather than something that's just talked about without actually really happening.
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I agree. I think the attack lines might be preventing the benefits of Brexit from being undone or whatever.

The question ultimately isn't whether the chances of winning are strong enough, it's whether Boris Johnson is so selfish he would gamble the remaining 2 years of time his colleagues have with (still) a commanding majority in a death-or-glory election campaign or whether he'd ultimately prefer for there to be a Conservative government moving forward, led by someone else.

I honestly don't know the answer but I can find scant evidence of him showing any party loyalty up to now.
 
I must admit it's great to see the Conservative party breaking itself apart like this. They knew what Boris Johnson was but they let him be their leader so they could swoop to power, except now the dream has turned sour and that same person is causing them severe reputational damage and they don't know what to do next.

Deal with the devil at your own risk.
 
Alsty said:
I must admit it's great to see the Conservative party breaking itself apart like this. They knew what Boris Johnson was but they let him be their leader so they could swoop to power, except now the dream has turned sour and that same person is causing them severe reputational damage and they don't know what to do next.

Deal with the devil at your own risk.
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They didn't even need him to "swoop to power" they were in power before Brexit! David Cameron had a majority. Then he had the Brexit vote, stepped down and it all went to poop.
 
jon81uk said:
They didn't even need him to "swoop to power" they were in power before Brexit! David Cameron had a majority. Then he had the Brexit vote, stepped down and it all went to poop.
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They were in office but not in control from between the 2017 and 2019 elections. I think swoop to power is a fair characterisation of the events of Summer/Autumn 2019.
 
A snap general election soon could be a stroke of genius from BJ. We know he likes a good gamble, especially when it's someone else who pays the gambling losses. The reason he's quietly threatening this and leaking it to all his MP's that currently have knives out is that he knows an election campaign will have to shut most of them up. I think you'd be surprised how much the Tories will unite at a GE.

On the other side of the fence, a still deeply divided Labour Party will have to create a manifesto in a hurry in full view of the public. Cue all the left Vs centre squabbling and shadow cabinet ministers and even Kier himself having to try and get behind policies they're not 100% behind ala Corbyn with anything to do with Brexit.

If BJ waits it out until the boundary changes that work in the Tories favour come into effect, I think you'd be surprised how much of a chance he has. Many traditional Tories who couldn't come out and defend him in Tiverton and Honiton will hold their noses on the way to the polling station to keep Labour out. There's still a fair amount of Brexit loving, Corbyn hating people out their defending Boris. The raving nationalists in Scotland will still be successfully doing their bit to keep the Tories in power as it gets them closer to their insane independence ideologies.

If I'm thinking electorally only, the best chance labour has is for the current government to go full term. Things will only get worse, the Tories will continue to fight with eachother. BJ defenders in the the red wall will be so poor by then that they won't be able to think of anything else. Labour can get some blank pages out and have 2 years to write a manifesto that actually fixes the country. The Lib Dems also have 2 years of solidifying their resurgence and will be better placed to hold back Tory seats in the South west. For many, it'll be anything but Tory by then and Labour can sign a coalition deal with the lib Dems which, let's face it, is their only real prospect of forming a government no matter how bad the current government gets.
 
I think @Matt.GC has got a point but I don’t think BJ wants a election he is threatening it to keep the red wall tories in line. I think he may well try ASAP once the boundary changes are in place, so the end of next year, makes a lot of sense. Labour should start there campaign for the next election whenever that might be nowl getting a outline manifesto ready. I think Labour are in with a a chance, especially if they work with the LibDems and the greens.
 
Things are growing ever more precarious for Boris Johnson, as another scandal has befallen the government… this time, it is alleged that Chris Pincher, the deputy chief whip and Conservative MP for Tamworth, assaulted two men while drunk at a Conservative member’s club, and numerous other allegations of sexual assault have been levelled towards him. He resigned as deputy chief whip a couple of days ago, and after experiencing heavy backlash about him still being an MP, Boris Johnson later suspended him from the Conservative Party.

The bit that is most damaging for Boris Johnson, however, is that there are reports of him knowing about Pincher’s past allegations and history before hiring him, and putting these aside due to Pincher’s personal loyalty towards Johnson. Johnson reportedly said that he knew Pincher was “handsy” and he uttered the words “Pincher by name, Pincher by nature”.

This has fuelled fresh calls for him to go and given extra ammunition to Conservative rebels, who are said to be considering trying to change the 1922 Committee rules to allow for another confidence vote against him.
 
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