UK politics general discussion

[tayspru]

Some people will always vote Tory if it’s better for their pocket, it simply doesn’t matter how divisive, hateful and careless the party becomes. Money before morals tends to float their boat

 

[rob666]

I mean it probably wasn't wise to make a vote on fracking a confidence issue, especially when you're essentially telling people to vote against something that's in your manifesto but here we are

I think the key word in the text from Downing Street this morning is that the disciplinary action will be "proportionate". So I'd guess there's a possibility they won't lose the whip and they'll use the confusion about it as a mitigating factor to get out of it causing too much of a kick off. But with this government, who knows?

It's been a long night shift for me at work, let's see if she lasts my nap. I'll be counting minister's resignations rather than sheep I think

So, today's big question sir...Had she gone by the time you woke up then?

 

[BigT]

I think @BigT is saying that if Boris did come back then he should put it to the country and let them decide again.

I don't see any issue with that.

Whoever gets the job should announce a general election date. Possibly next spring.



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That’s exactly what I’m saying.
Look the bar has been set high for a reason, let’s see if he has the support or not but he is still one of the most popular Tories with the public (the bar is somewhat low though).
He’s a marmite figure I get that, but for election campaigns they don’t have any better.
I’d say for damage limitation he’s the right man for the job, he can come in, claim he still has a mandate, try and push through some of the manifesto promises and then go to the country at some point next year.

Do I think he will win that election? No but I don’t think it would be a huge Labour win either.

 

[Craig]

So, today's big question sir...Had she gone by the time you woke up then?

I kid you not - my alarm was set for 13:30! So I guess officially it was just after I'd woke up

 

[Matt N]

I must say, I did not expect such a quick resurrection of resignation and leadership contest talk... when she was elected, I thought that Liz Truss would at very least last to the next election, due in 2024.

Out of interest, who would you guys like to be our next Prime Minister out of the potential candidates within the Conservative Party?

Of the likely candidates within the Conservative Party, I wouldn't be averse to Rishi Sunak myself; he seems to me like a relative steadying hand, and someone you can trust. I also wouldn't be against Penny Mordaunt for similar reasons. To be honest, though, I'm sure most of them would be perfectly good candidates, even if my personal preference leans toward a more moderate/centrist Conservative.

I wouldn't be averse to a General Election before too long, though... things have changed a lot since 2019, and even putting that aside, the Conservative Party is now deviating quite significantly from Boris Johnson's 2019 manifesto, which the party was elected on. Therefore, I'd argue that the right thing to do would be to go back to the people and request a new mandate for their new policy. Unless, of course, Boris Johnson, the man with the mandate, makes a triumphant return...

Although I must admit that a small part of my lust for a GE comes from the fact that I recently joined the Forest of Dean Electoral Register and am looking forward to casting my first vote!

 

[Dave]

That’s exactly what I’m saying.
Look the bar has been set high for a reason, let’s see if he has the support or not but he is still one of the most popular Tories with the public (the bar is somewhat low though).
He’s a marmite figure I get that, but for election campaigns they don’t have any better.
I’d say for damage limitation he’s the right man for the job, he can come in, claim he still has a mandate, try and push through some of the manifesto promises and then go to the country at some point next year.

Do I think he will win that election? No but I don’t think it would be a huge Labour win either.

He had a mandate he never acted on.

Where was levelling up?

He was the PM yet oversaw the highest per capita death rate in Europe for covid and despite everyone banging on about our vaccine programme it wasn’t even in the top 10 fastest roll out.

He got brexit done then spent his time arguing the deal he agreed for Northern Ireland was bad… yet he agreed it.

He promised 40 new hospitals, we have none.

What did BJ actually achieve?

Labour actually are quite happy if he gets back in power. Not sure they are panicking about anyone but Mordaunt would be the biggest challenge to them.

 

[Tom]

The anti-growth coalition bringing back the blonde mop could be the least damaging thing they do at this point. His charisma is the only thing that can cut through in many of the seats they need to hang onto.

 

[Matt.GC]

The notion of Boris coming back really shows the desperation that Tories are feeling right now. Even on £80odd thousand per year, some of them are worried about their mortgages and pensions when they loose their seats in 2 years time.

They'll do anything to stop that happening. Even if that means you, me and everyone in-between going financially to the wall in the meantime. We're all being thrown under the bus to save a few dozen people their jobs.

They have three options right now. 1. Is to put their own selfish interests first and reinstate a shameful liar and criminal in the hope he can swindle and hoodwink his way through the next election and thus save as much of them as he can. 2 Is to show a little bit of respect for the rest of us and elect someone competent to limit the damage of the next 2 years until some of them end up getting the boot. 3 is to put their constituents and the whole country first and call a general election to get rid of a government they know is rotten and incompetent to the core, at least that way they can go out holding their heads up high knowing they did the right thing for the people they claim to represent.

I don't like this country and much of its populace. If I wasn't born here, spoke a different language and had qualifications behind me, I wouldn't live in this declining laughing stock of a country. We've got the government we voted for and, frankly, deserve. But as Tony Blair said after the EU referendum, the public are entitled to change their minds. I hope we've all learned a valued lesson from all this. Never trust the Tories implicitly. Whether it's the wars waged on working people and trade unions, the poll tax or the shambolic mini budget, this party always end up here.

This is what they do, what they've always done and what they've always believed in. Shame on anyone who leant their vote to them, defended them, felt sympathy for them or fell for their nonsense. I swore when I was a child that I would never ever vote for them and I never will to my dying day. Even in the darkest days of madman Corbyn backed by his antisemitic Trotskyists, I never even considered voting Tory for a single second. Shame on all those working class people in the heartlands who did. Enjoy your double fuel bills this winter, the £300 extra on your mortgage and 10.1% hike in inflation whilst every pound in your pocket devalues because this is what you voted for.

 

[shakey]

Shame on all those working class people in the heartlands who did. Enjoy your double fuel bills this winter, the £300 extra on your mortgage and 10.1% hike in inflation whilst every pound in your pocket devalues because this is what you voted for.

While I totally agree the current government is a laughing stock and needs replacing, the cost of living crisis is not really down to the government, despite the opposition's claims.

It is largely due to the war in Ukraine and other global factors.

Average inflation in the EU is higher than the UK. Germany has a 10% inflation rate. Netherlands 14% . And even the US it is over 8% and they are less affected by the war than Europe.

It's a similar story with interest rates, in fact the UK are at the lower end in that regard.

There have also been demonstrations over the cost of living in Germany and France recently.

I am not trying to defend the shambolic government of the UK but don't expect wonders when labour take over. If they manage to bring inflation and interest rates down then it will probably be because that's what is happening in other countries.

Global problems tend to topple governments . It did for Labour after the 2008 financial crisis and it will do for the Tories now. It's just that the Tories have also managed to shoot themselves in the foot by completely falling apart as a coherent government.








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[AstroDan]

Brexit plays in too. Cameron hoped Brexit would solve infighting once and for all.

Lolz.

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[Rob]

I find the idea that Johnson could be back as PM quite astonishing. Have MPs completely forgotten what happened just a short while go? Lies, parties, a cabinet walk out, public disgust. And the fact he is facing a parliamentary investigation. If his position was untenable only a few months ago then it still is now.

 

[Craig]

While I totally agree the current government is a laughing stock and needs replacing, the cost of living crisis is not really down to the government, despite the opposition's claims.

It is largely due to the war in Ukraine.

Average inflation in the EU is higher than the UK. Germany has a 10% inflation rate. Netherlands 14% . And even the US it is over 8% and they are less affected by the war than Europe.

It's a similar story with interest rates, in fact the UK are at the lower end in that regard.

There have also been demonstrations over the cost of living in Germany and France recently.

I am not trying to defend the shambolic government of the UK but don't expect wonders when labour take over. If they manage to bring inflation and interest rates down then it will probably be because that's what is happening in other countries.

Global problems tend to topple governments . It did for Labour after the 2008 financial crisis and it will do for the Tories now. It's just that the Tories have also managed to shoot themselves in the foot by completely falling apart as a coherent government.








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So whilst the cost of living crisis per se was always going to exist for the United Kingdom in some form, it's hard to argue that the government haven't managed to exacerbate it with the decisions they've taken. Going back long term, Brexit has played a factor with exchange rates and red tape causing issues with both imports and exports. Oil prices for example are lower than their peak in the early part of the year, yet we are scarcely feeling the benefit because our exchange rate against the dollar has dropped.

Back to recent times though, and the argument that this is purely down to global issues is a bit of a lazy one being pedalled by the government. In the past, the UK has enjoyed incredibly low borrowing rates, with our bond yields being amongst the lowest in the world thanks to us being seen as a stable and safe nation to invest in. As shown in the graph below, you can see that we generally stayed in step with movements with the US and Australian rates. Once news of the elements of the mini budget started to filter through though, you can see what a mess it turned into...



As I mentioned a few days ago, Liz Truss was stating she had "fixed" the issue, but there was period of time where we were paying substantially more for our borrowing and even now it's still more than it was before. That's not even mentioning the BoE having to purchase the bonds instead of letting the open market do so, further increasing the cost to the country. That's why we have such a huge black hole in the country's finances, one which wouldn't have existed if the country's financial decisions were properly assessed and subjected to scrutiny by independent bodies prior to being publicly announced.

So to give an analogy, yes a fire did exist as it has worldwide since the war in Ukraine. But the government effectively chucked a massive can of petrol on it and made it considerably worse.

 

[shakey]

So whilst the cost of living crisis per se was always going to exist for the United Kingdom in some form, it's hard to argue that the government haven't managed to exacerbate it with the decisions they've taken. Going back long term, Brexit has played a factor with exchange rates and red tape causing issues with both imports and exports. Oil prices for example are lower than their peak in the early part of the year, yet we are scarcely feeling the benefit because our exchange rate against the dollar has dropped.

Back to recent times though, and the argument that this is purely down to global issues is a bit of a lazy one being pedalled by the government. In the past, the UK has enjoyed incredibly low borrowing rates, with our bond yields being amongst the lowest in the world thanks to us being seen as a stable and safe nation to invest in. As shown in the graph below, you can see that we generally stayed in step with movements with the US and Australian rates. Once news of the elements of the mini budget started to filter through though, you can see what a mess it turned into...



As I mentioned a few days ago, Liz Truss was stating she had "fixed" the issue, but there was period of time where we were paying substantially more for our borrowing and even now it's still more than it was before. That's not even mentioning the BoE having to purchase the bonds instead of letting the open market do so, further increasing the cost to the country. That's why we have such a huge black hole in the country's finances, one which wouldn't have existed if the country's financial decisions were properly assessed and subjected to scrutiny by independent bodies prior to being publicly announced.

So to give an analogy, yes a fire did exist as it has worldwide since the war in Ukraine. But the government effectively chucked a massive can of petrol on it and made it considerably worse.

Totally agree that the mini budget was a catastrophe which is ultimately why truss resigned.

But I was specifically addressing the claim that double digit inflation and higher interest rates have been caused by the government, which they have not.

In general (the mini budget aside), world events are far more likely to affect our lives than anything the government does.

The mini budget decisions were clearly rushed through blindly. The bad parts have now been reversed before any of those measures could be implemented.

 

[Benzin]

I find the idea that Johnson could be back as PM quite astonishing. Have MPs completely forgotten what happened just a short while go? Lies, parties, a cabinet walk out, public disgust. And the fact he is facing a parliamentary investigation. If his position was untenable only a few months ago then it still is now.

All they care about is staying is power.

Many MPs would do anything to remain there. Even if it goes against their own constituents.

Party over country.

 

[Alsty]

Totally agree that the mini budget was a catastrophe which is ultimately why truss resigned.

But I was specifically addressing the claim that double digit inflation and higher interest rates have been caused by the government, which they have not.

In general (the mini budget aside), world events are far more likely to affect our lives than anything the government does.

The mini budget decisions were clearly rushed through blindly. The bad parts have now been reversed before any of those measures could be implemented.

You can't change the global issues but you can change how you deal with them domestically. For example, the energy cap that Labour proposed from the start and was based on energy company windfalls, while the government did nothing and then eventually conceded and implemented a cap using tax payers money instead. Also things the government like to do such as creating friction with our nearest trading partners cause an increase in costs of getting goods across which also help to push up inflation further.

 

[BigT]

It’s been reported Boris already has over 50 MP’s he needs to back him, if and I still think it’s an if he gets on the final membership ballot then he wins easily unless Cummins has anything left in his black book.

Sunak is obviously the most competent for the job but is unpopular because his wife is a billionaire so how can he relate to the little man on the street?
Mordant probably has the best chance of uniting the party but is unknown to the general public so is a big risk electorally.
My view is (and it’s only my opinion) Johnson is still the best chance in an election of damage limitation.

 

[shakey]

You can't change the global issues but you can change how you deal with them domestically. For example, the energy cap that Labour proposed from the start and was based on energy company windfalls, while the government did nothing and then eventually conceded and implemented a cap using tax payers money instead. Also things the government like to do such as creating friction with our nearest trading partners cause an increase in costs of getting goods across which also help to push up inflation further.

But UK inflation is less than the EU average.

Yes, you can change how you deal with things domestically. Will a windfall tax benefit people in the short or long term ? Maybe , maybe not. We will just have to see when Labour gets in. I just don't think we are going to see any great benefit to most peoples lives unless global conditions improve. I hope I am wrong.

Brexit has clearly been a major upheaval (or disaster depending on your view) but that's a different argument and a different thread.

 

[Craig]

I still can't see how Johnson would bring damage limitation, because ultimately he was forced out for a reason. If time had passed and there'd be some effort to repair relations with people then sure - but right now I can't see how that's even been attempted. He left because he failed to command the support of his MPs, and I don't see how that position has changed.

It's now reported the ERG (ugh, remember those) are waiting to see if they can gain assurances from Johnson on NI Protocol and to guarantee senior jobs for their members. So we're back to one side of the party trying to run the show again - well away from the unity needed.

It's all well and good having a leader who would be more electable than the others, but that's also on the basis that they need to actually have a functioning government in the meantime. I just can't see that happening, and ultimately it'll lead to the Tory party splitting.

As much as the drama was fun for a while, I just want a plain old boring functioning government for a bit.

 

[rob666]

It’s been reported Boris already has over 50 MP’s he needs to back him, if and I still think it’s an if he gets on the final membership ballot then he wins easily unless Cummins has anything left in his black book.

Sunak is obviously the most competent for the job but is unpopular because his wife is a billionaire so how can he relate to the little man on the street?
Mordant probably has the best chance of uniting the party but is unknown to the general public so is a big risk electorally.
My view is (and it’s only my opinion) Johnson is still the best chance in an election of damage limitation.

Fifty is a long way from a hundred, and some tories are running to the press calling him a complete liar and lawbreaker, on the record.
Boris also has no relation to the little man on the street, so I can't see your argument.

 

[BigT]

I still can't see how Johnson would bring damage limitation, because ultimately he was forced out for a reason. If time had passed and there'd be some effort to repair relations with people then sure - but right now I can't see how that's even been attempted. He left because he failed to command the support of his MPs, and I don't see how that position has changed.

It's now reported the ERG (ugh, remember those) are waiting to see if they can gain assurances from Johnson on NI Protocol and to guarantee senior jobs for their members. So we're back to one side of the party trying to run the show again - well away from the unity needed.

It's all well and good having a leader who would be more electable than the others, but that's also on the basis that they need to actually have a functioning government in the meantime. I just can't see that happening, and ultimately it'll lead to the Tory party splitting.

As much as the drama was fun for a while, I just want a plain old boring functioning government for a bit.

I actually think you are right and it’s too soon, it was the MP’s that ousted him though not the party members, in polls he was more popular than both truss and Sunak with Tory members.
The silly thing is Truss made such a hash of the job it’s actually made Boris popular again.