UK Politics General Discussion

[Matt N]

I'm not sure what else to expect if you decide to conquer 1/3rd of the world, call them all subjects of the British empire, extol the virtues of England to them and promote British exceptionalism for, give or take, 300 years.

Not that any of us can call ourselves legitimately British, what with being invaded roughly 6 or so times up until 1066... And even then the last buggers to beat us were the French.

Sacrebleu!

That is admittedly true… if we’re trying to reduce immigration, we have not exactly helped ourselves over the years by making ourselves appealing to foreign immigrants!

But unfortunately, I don’t think history will help us vanquish the immigration debate… as much as our past actions may have played a role in our high net migration, they won’t exactly help us in solving the debate on how to deal with it in future.

 

[rob666]

...Not that any of us can call ourselves legitimately British,...

Citation very much needed!
Legitimately British.
Me.
Absolutely.
Yes, of course I am.
British born, by two British parents, and spent all my life here.
Legally British.
Without question.

Check your wordplay goosey.

I know what you mean though, but ethnic heritage and legitimate nationality are miles apart...look at the good old U S of A, where the "legitimate" ethnic nationals have been well shafted over the years...just like the Australian ethnic people.

And off topic, with all this flu about, you been grounded yet goosey?

 

[Dave]

The reform polling isn’t really a surprise and it still remains an inefficient vote share under FPTP, Reform are marmite, with a passionate following plus a smattering of the wavering right wingers, but equally a large part of the UK population really disliking them.

Curiously Labour are taking it seriously but they are going after Farage’s stance on the NHS (he has a long history of advocating a US style insurance system even though he is back peddling furiously now). I suspect they will keep on that track.

The bigger risk for Labour is a Tory reform merger, although that might benefit the Lib Dem’s as many Tory voters who hold their nose when the party swings a bit to the right and still vote for them, will probably vote Lib Dem’s instead. A voting pact might work but if the Tory’s and Reform did that Labour and Lib Dem’s would just do the same.

Population growth is ironically slowing compared with the last six decades even when immigration is taken into account but sadly the racists will ensure it’s a major voting issue.

 

[Matt N]

The reform polling isn’t really a surprise and it still remains an inefficient vote share under FPTP, Reform are marmite, with a passionate following plus a smattering of the wavering right wingers, but equally a large part of the UK population really disliking them.

Curiously Labour are taking it seriously but they are going after Farage’s stance on the NHS (he has a long history of advocating a US style insurance system even though he is back peddling furiously now). I suspect they will keep on that track.

The bigger risk for Labour is a Tory reform merger, although that might benefit the Lib Dem’s as many Tory voters who hold their nose when the party swings a bit to the right and still vote for them, will probably vote Lib Dem’s instead. A voting pact might work but if the Tory’s and Reform did that Labour and Lib Dem’s would just do the same.

Population growth is ironically slowing compared with the last six decades even when immigration is taken into account but sadly the racists will ensure it’s a major voting issue.

I disagree that Reform’s vote share would remain inefficient under FPTP in this case.

MRP polls carried out by places such as Electoral Calculus and YouGov think that if an election were to be held tomorrow, there would be a strong chance of a pretty much 3-way tie between the Conservatives, Labour and Reform in terms of seats. If this came to pass, we’d have a really remarkable scenario where the largest party had little over 200 seats and was absolutely miles from a majority. Electoral Calculus, for example, currently thinks that Labour would win 209, Reform would win 175 and the Tories would win 156. There is now a non-zero chance that Reform will be the largest party at the next election if things continue as they are, I feel.

This may not play out if an election were actually held, of course, but even still, I think Reform currently presents a much greater threat than any of Farage’s prior political projects, with much higher opinion poll ratings, and it probably presents the greatest threat to the dominance of the Tories and Labour since at least Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats in 2010. I’d also argue that the SNP up in Scotland are prime proof that a smaller party can surge from nowhere and do really well under FPTP.

 

[rob666]

"If an election was held tomorrow"...
Big and important if.
But an election will not be held tomorrow, or indeed for another four years.
So all these hypotheticals are completely meaningless...
There will not be an election tomorrow.

If oranges were cottage cheese we would all probably change our eating habits.
That is as true as any hypothetical election discussion..,completely meaningless in the real world.

Unless you are the right wing press with an axe to grind.

 

[Dave]

YouGov haven’t run an MRP poll since the election. Electoral calculus haven’t had the most accurate MRP polls so far.

YouGov and Ipsos are the two pollsters that have a proven track record, due to the cost of running an MRP poll I doubt they will run one for a while.

And as Rob says polling 4 years out from the next election is pretty pointless, hence why MRP polls are not done until we get close to one. You will generally only get voting intention polls at the moment and those are not very good at predicting seats in FPTP.

 

[tayspru]

You have to keep in mind, on a national level most people are very disengaged from politics after the election. The people keeping up are skewing towards the fanatics of parties like reform and the hard right / left

Your every day person won’t even think about who they would vote for 4 years from now

 

[flyingguitar]

you also have to consider this is a poll, there is no obligation to say who you would vote for (most people may say they want to vote reform, but will vote tory as tory have been able to win in the past)

also labour has barely had much time in power, so unless something stupid happens (e.g Trump tariffs, with if you see Canada may help labours chances deepening on reforms stance) if labour are able to improve stuff, they will probably grow in popularity.

also I think reform is more a problem with the Tories than labour, the tories are currently non existent in the media, labour makes a new thing and there isn't much push back from them in stuff like PMQ's but reform are showing up more as against Labour, if the Tories were able to fight and move more middle ground they would probably have more popularity.

edit: consider this, how many people in 2023 knew who kier stammer was when he was opposition, but now consider how many people know who kemi badenoch when the tories are opposition

 

[pluk]

Anecdotally in my experience, since the new government came to power there has been a more proactive approach at finding and removing those here illegally. Seems to be an effort to deal with those facilitating and employing illegally too.

What really doesn't help is the media lazily clumping immigration as one figure in reporting, when there is obviously a vast difference between legal migration, illegal entry by legitimate asylum seekers, and illegal entry by those with no valid asylum claim. I truly believe that most people, with the differences explained, woukd only really have an issue with one of those groups.

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

edit: consider this, how many people in 2023 knew who kier stammer was when he was opposition, but now consider how many people know who kemi badenoch when the tories are opposition

Keir Starmer had been Leader of the Opposition for four years by 2023. Kemi Badenoch hasn't even been Leader of the Opposition for four months yet.

There is nothing to consider.

 

[Tom]

Labour has done what the Conservative Party has failed to do for all of its last election wins: drop populism and get some seriously unpopular stuff out of the way as soon as they won. There will be nothing but giveaways and gimmicks between now and the next election.

 

[Quantum]

Labour has done what the Conservative Party has failed to do for all of its last election wins: drop populism and get some seriously unpopular stuff out of the way as soon as they won. There will be nothing but giveaways and gimmicks between now and the next election.

Still waiting for that so call 'good stuff'. Everything so far has been doom gloom lurching from one disaster to the next. Water bills up, energy bills up again, unemployment up, council tax significantly up for some.

Reeves is absolutely hammering retail leisure and tourism business. Triple whammy of NI increases, minimum wage increase and business rates relief reductions.

People wonder why Reform are polling well here's your answer. People want a bit of new Labour bounce and optimism after 14 years of the Tories and what were getting is just as bad if not worse. 22 billion black hole and all that nonsense

 

[Matt.GC]

Still waiting for that so call 'good stuff'. Everything so far has been doom gloom lurching from one disaster to the next. Water bills up, energy bills up again, unemployment up, council tax significantly up for some.

Reeves is absolutely hammering retail leisure and tourism business. Triple whammy of NI increases, minimum wage increase and business rates relief reductions.

People wonder why Reform are polling well here's your answer. People want a bit of new Labour bounce and optimism after 14 years of the Tories and what were getting is just as bad if not worse. 22 billion black hole and all that nonsense

Waiting for the good stuff after just 8 months? You have seen the state of the country haven't you?

Yes, I agree Reeves is hammering retail and hospitality. Silly promises made before the election. But let's never forget whose fault this situation is.

I don't wonder why Reform are polling well. They tell fantastical lies, telling you what they think you want to hear.

What kind of bounce do you want? Do you want to be lied to? I don't understand what you are saying here? For a moment there, I thought you were comparing the current situation to 1997!

 

[flyingguitar]

Keir Starmer had been Leader of the Opposition for four years by 2023. Kemi Badenoch hasn't even been Leader of the Opposition for four months yet.

There is nothing to consider.

ok, consider back in 2021 (can't really recall what 2020 or 2019 was like), kier stammer was still in the news quite often, I think people forget the amount criticisms helping keep pressure, he managed to rebuild the labour part so it can win but currently you aren't seeing much of Kemi Badenoch and she is being drowned out by reform, something which after the past election they probably can't afford and TBH because they are trying to pass unpopular bills currently now is the time to criticize they can get easy wins, the NI increases, but you don't see Kemi Badenoch fighting back you see Nigel or other reform fighting back.

consider the farming protests, who did you see? Nigel everywhere it would have been so easy to get a win to become a voice of opposition standing up for individual farmers rights, but now reform looks like they care more about farmers.

Kemi Badenoch needs to be a spotlight of where to go against labour if not people will be unsure weather reform or Tories are good labour opposition (TBH they are both going for a race to the far right (Kemi Badenoch wanted it less than her rival but from what I understand she still wants to go more right) so they will probably loose centrist voters) but this will fracture the right vote

 

[Benzin]

People don't want the truth. They want grandiose decrees from egotistical rich men that their problems are the fault of someone else, or how "the woke movement" is curbing your freedoms.

Actually being in charge is very different to sniping from the sidelines.

 

[Dave]

Still waiting for that so call 'good stuff'. Everything so far has been doom gloom lurching from one disaster to the next. Water bills up, energy bills up again, unemployment up, council tax significantly up for some.

Reeves is absolutely hammering retail leisure and tourism business. Triple whammy of NI increases, minimum wage increase and business rates relief reductions.

People wonder why Reform are polling well here's your answer. People want a bit of new Labour bounce and optimism after 14 years of the Tories and what were getting is just as bad if not worse. 22 billion black hole and all that nonsense

I’m not convinced on Reeves and the budget but I do wonder how much of the moaning from the retail sector is just performative (like the farmers). The Tax burden in the UK is fairly middle of the road, yet those countries with higher tax have retail and leisure businesses working fine. Plus more than 50% of companies are getting a tax cut due to the exemption for smaller businesses.

Personally I think Labour should have said at the election they were going to return NI to the level it was before the Tories did their un funded tax cuts, and tinker with other taxes on employers. But I do wonder if it’s as bad as some companies are making out.

 

[Quantum]

I’m not convinced on Reeves and the budget but I do wonder how much of the moaning from the retail sector is just performative (like the farmers). The Tax burden in the UK is fairly middle of the road, yet those countries with higher tax have retail and leisure businesses working fine. Plus more than 50% of companies are getting a tax cut due to the exemption for smaller businesses.

Personally I think Labour should have said at the election they were going to return NI to the level it was before the Tories did their un funded tax cuts, and tinker with other taxes on employers. But I do wonder if it’s as bad as some companies are making out.

In isolation business can absorb and adapt and is have no issues in raising minimum wage. That said all three at once along with the rising costs of utilities will see many businesses go under. You can't get growth by taxing small and medium sized business into oblivion.

 

[Matt.GC]

I’m not convinced on Reeves and the budget but I do wonder how much of the moaning from the retail sector is just performative (like the farmers). The Tax burden in the UK is fairly middle of the road, yet those countries with higher tax have retail and leisure businesses working fine. Plus more than 50% of companies are getting a tax cut due to the exemption for smaller businesses.

Personally I think Labour should have said at the election they were going to return NI to the level it was before the Tories did their un funded tax cuts, and tinker with other taxes on employers. But I do wonder if it’s as bad as some companies are making out.

I am convinced with Reeves and I believe she has the skills and the talent, and she is mostly being attacked by populists and a hostile press for being the bearer of bad news that eminatated from the worst government that this country has seen in most of our lifetimes.

However, her and Starmer need to shoulder the blame for the rediclous tax promises they made before the election. At a time when it looked increasingly likely they would win and win big, they made completely nonsensical promises about not raising personal taxes for "working people", when not only were people expecting it to be an inevitably, but were actually warming to it. A golden opportunity and reality check missed.

There will be a great deal of performative complaining from retail and hospitality, I have no doubt. There always will be from something like this.

The NI rise also seems well intended. Make employers who use cheap labour pay for it another way.

But Bob, the owner of the local chippy, and Rob, the owner of the local corner shop, will still employ teenagers on a pittance. They're small businesses so will reluctantly use their new tax reliefs and price rises to pay for it.

Secretive foreign based companies, who aren't registered in the UK like Amazon, Coca Cola, and Aldi will likely complain and alter their tax affairs to foot the bill. They'll too rise prices (already are actually). They'll still make their margins somehow.

But London based M&S, London based Kingfisher, Welwyn Garden City based Tesco, Leeds based ASDA, Poole based Merlin Entertainments, Dunstable based Whitbread, and Bradford based Morrisons? Well they're the bad guys aren't they! Big businesses, registered and pay their taxes in the UK, all sell either human essential commodities and;or homewares from bricks and mortar stores, or mainly UK based hospitality/leisure. None have a clean ethical reputation, but I suppose that's far easier to ascertain when you have to register your annual reports here for all to see.

Yet again, the foreign multinationals like German discount supermarkets (where the food retail industry is less competitive, the industry is a smaller part of their national economy, choice is more limited, and store bought food is generally more expensive), Amazon (a terrible employer who is shy of paying taxes), and McDonald's corp (where do I start?) have options, whilst the false "greedflation" finger is pointed at service industry companies that were stupid enough to actually still trade here.

As very large private companies, they will of course pay the minimum wage or above, pay their extra employer NI contributions, and corporation tax on their profits. Their CEO's will earn large salaries and sleep well at night in luxury, and their Investors will be prioritised above anyone else. This will all be done with branch closures, job losses, price rises, and general productivity savings. Bearing in mind that the service sector, where most of these jobs are, makes up 80% of the UK economy and it's productivity increases over the last 20 years puts the secondary, primary, and public sectors to shame.

But the "(insert local town name here) Live" Reach websites will report of "popular" branches closing, with "the loss of many jobs", whilst the right wing tabloids will continue the attack at a national level, and politicians of all colours will club together and make false accusations of "profiteering" to hide their own crudelity.

I hope this employers NI grab is just an easy way of generating tax receipts in the short-term to pay the Tories overdue credit card bill, whilst technically not breaking a foolishly made election promise. But it remains by biggest concern of any decision the new government has made to date.

Employers should absolutely be paying higher wages and more tax. But this feels like a blunt instrument. The government needs these companies, especially the UK based ones, for growth and productivity. It's in their interest to have large service sector companies and employers based her in the UK, that are successful, employ a lot of people, and are exportable.

Whilst Tesco have sacrificed margin to soak up inflationary pressures for consumers in the most competitive retail market in the world, Amazon continue to pay a smaller amount of tax here as % of their revenue. You won't find an annual report anywhere for Aldi, but you'll be able to pour over the details for Kingfisher and Whitbread PLC.

Easy targets, that's why they went for them.

It isn't a one size fits all. I'm sure many will be pleading business poverty unnecessarily, but the facts are out there for UK based bricks and mortar companies, they aren't so much for these dodgy foreign competitors that seem to get a free pass.

They should be encouraging large UK employees to pay high wages, keep prices low, and pay taxes. They should be encouraging small and medium sized businesses and entrepreneurialism. They should not be getting a blunt instrument and hitting huge sectors on the head with it indiscriminately.

I'm hoping this was just a one-off tax grab out of desperation. Some business that can weather the storm seem to think so. But it doesn't scream economic growth to me at the moment.