2019 General Election Poll and Discussion

[Tibble]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2019-50582197

Absolute s**t show

 

[Stuie]

Where do people stand on Boris Johnson's desire to keep secret the number of children he has? Feels pretty pertinent that he continues to do so after his thoughts on single mothers has been rediscovered.

Is that his prerogative for entirely innocent reasons or is it a man who doesn't want the public to know just how complex his private life is because it would perhaps not be politically wise?

(Allegedly, it could potentially compromise some legal settlements too).

He especially doesn't want us to know about the one he had with the burka wearing Muslim woman.

 

[GaryH]

Where do people stand on Boris Johnson's desire to keep secret the number of children he has? Feels pretty pertinent that he continues to do so after his thoughts on single mothers has been rediscovered.

Is that his prerogative for entirely innocent reasons or is it a man who doesn't want the public to know just how complex his private life is because it would perhaps not be politically wise?

(Allegedly, it could potentially compromise some legal settlements too).

Why does it matter???? He has always said he will not discuss his private life to the press even before he became PM.

 

[Plastic Person]

I'd typically take @GaryH 's stance, but this is Boris, who unlike Corbyn or Swinson, mined millions as a columnist, presenter and public figure alongside his political life. It's not exactly like he's been trying to keep his head down and get on with serving the public. He's a socialite. To suddenly demand that we have no right to know how many children he has seems a bit of an ask.

 

[Rick]

Why does it matter????

I was asking if it mattered, old boy. It seem quite an odd thing to hide, unless there is complexity.

He has always said he will not discuss his private life to the press even before he became PM.

I'd question if you can really be PM without the public having an awareness of your private life. Historically, if you wanted to win the hearts and minds of great swathes of the public, you'd have to open yourself up to them, at least a little bit. Perhaps in a politics of alternative facts and catchphrases that doesn't matter anymore?

There's also the fascinating (although probably not here) discussion as to whether you can separate private morality and the morality of politics. If someone is known to have had a string of affairs, been sacked for lying etc - does that mean that their character inhibits them in doing the right thing for the country as a whole.

 

[Benzin]

I'd say that any position of power over people (or an entire country in this case), should have a fair level of scrutiny towards public life, especially if it's shown to be hypocritical against their apparent views...

It's a different situation to say the personal lives of work colleagues who may or may not be knocking boots in the store room, as they're not going out to the wider world to negotiate things that will affect millions...

If we're scrutinising Corbyn for meeting people of questionable nature then we should probably do the same for Boris or Swindon...

 

[Matt N]

Did anyone see that the Conservatives are now reportedly trying to force legal action against Channel 4 for replacing Boris Johnson with an ice sculpture during a leaders' debate on climate change?
NOTE: For clarity, C4 did offer Boris the chance to appear and he apparently declined, along with Nigel Farage from the Brexit Party.

 

[Alsty]

The ice sculpture was more credible than Boris Johnson.

 

[Rick]

Classic dead cat tactic from the Tories there. Today the news was all about Gove & Johnson Snr turning up and potentially threatening Channel 4.

Not a word about Boris not turning up in the first place, or God forbid, the content of the debate.

 

[Rose Of Dawn]

I’m not surprised Boris didn’t turn up for Channel 4’s ‘Climate Debate’; C4 haven’t exactly hidden their dislike of the Conservatives or Boris especially, and the audience that would be attracted to such a debate aren’t likely to vote Tory or Brexit Party anyway. So even if Boris did turn up I doubt he would’ve been given a fair hearing.

But there’s one interview that does matter - which is Andrew Neil. And I’m not sure what’s happening there. A friend of mine believes the delaying is a Trump-like tactic to get people talking, and that Boris will agree to do it. But not doing this debate would be a worse look than having it be a complete car crash like Corbyn’s (where only the most ardent Cult of Corbyn followers believing it to be any sort of success). I’ve seen a lot of prominent conservative commentators criticise Boris for not already agreeing to the interview, and it’s these voters that he’ll ultimately harm by not doing it.

 

[Matt N]

In other news, the Conservatives' poll lead over Labour is now reducing, with 1 poll putting it at just 8 points (Conservatives 42%, Labour 34%). The lead needs to reduce to 6 points or under to result in a hung parliament.
EDIT: I've just looked at Electoral Calculus as well, and that now only gives the Conservatives a 12 seat majority and 331 seats, with Labour winning 235, the SNP winning 45, the Liberal Democrats winning 19 and the Green Party winning 1. I know that that still predicts a majority, but that poll was certainly far more generous to the Conservatives earlier in the election; they were predicted 361 seats when I looked at it 1 or 2 weeks ago, and when the election was announced, they were predicted 363 seats!

 

[Rick]

The lead needs to reduce to 6 points or under to result in a hung parliament.

Take that guidance with a little bit of caution. That could well be the case, but there are all sorts of things happening in this election that mean that's a good guide, but not much more.

The relationship between the media and the parties is quite interesting in this election. In terms of debates, you have to think that we've reached a point where there should be an agreed format and parties conform to that. Having this free for all between broadcasters just seems destined for failure - not least because most broadcasters want in on the market.

Iain Dale on LBC made quite a big thing of not having Emily Thornberry show up earlier this week. I understood his frustration, but there's so many different media streams all wanting someone from the parties all the time. Demand is outstripping supply.

The Tories banning the Daily Mirror from their bus seemed quite petulant and Trump-like. Not sure if Johnson will do the Andrew Neil interview. I guess it depends if they think it's worth getting monstered or not, the lack of scrutiny is a little worrying. I still haven't heard a definitive answer about Irish customs checks.

 

[Stuie]

In other news, the Conservatives' poll lead over Labour is now reducing, with 1 poll putting it at just 8 points (Conservatives 42%, Labour 34%). The lead needs to reduce to 6 points or under to result in a hung parliament.
EDIT: I've just looked at Electoral Calculus as well, and that now only gives the Conservatives a 12 seat majority and 331 seats, with Labour winning 235, the SNP winning 45, the Liberal Democrats winning 19 and the Green Party winning 1. I know that that still predicts a majority, but that poll was certainly far more generous to the Conservatives earlier in the election; they were predicted 361 seats when I looked at it 1 or 2 weeks ago, and when the election was announced, they were predicted 363 seats!

Opinion polls should be banned. All they do is influence voting rather than accurately predict it.

 

[Matt N]

Opinion polls should be banned. All they do is influence voting rather than accurately predict it.

They seem to have been quite accurate in the past, but I suppose that they only ask a small proportion of people. I think that the exit poll is the one that we need to watch for; that one has a very high rate of accuracy!

 

[Rick]

They seem to have been quite accurate in the past

 

[Matt N]

What do you mean? I know that initial polls were far kinder to Ed Miliband's Labour Party at the start of the 2015 election, but towards the end, they were pretty accurate with regards to the vote's result.

 

[Rick]

What do you mean? I know that initial polls were far kinder to Ed Miliband's Labour Party at the start of the 2015 election, but towards the end, they were pretty accurate with regards to the vote's result.

Which polls? In the week before the vote, most of the the polls were showing it to be very close.

 

[speedy]

I’m not surprised Boris didn’t turn up for Channel 4’s ‘Climate Debate’; C4 haven’t exactly hidden their dislike of the Conservatives or Boris especially, and the audience that would be attracted to such a debate aren’t likely to vote Tory or Brexit Party anyway. So even if Boris did turn up I doubt he would’ve been given a fair hearing.

But there’s one interview that does matter - which is Andrew Neil. And I’m not sure what’s happening there. A friend of mine believes the delaying is a Trump-like tactic to get people talking, and that Boris will agree to do it. But not doing this debate would be a worse look than having it be a complete car crash like Corbyn’s (where only the most ardent Cult of Corbyn followers believing it to be any sort of success). I’ve seen a lot of prominent conservative commentators criticise Boris for not already agreeing to the interview, and it’s these voters that he’ll ultimately harm by not doing it.

If Johnson felt that way he should have shown up and put his points across. A left wing audience would ask tougher questions, but Johnson should be able to answer those. He didn't show up so either he isn't confident in his own policies or doesn't care. Either way not a really a good advertisment for yourself.

 

[IanSR]

A left wing audience wouldn't let him finish a sentence, never mind ask a decent question.

 

[RoyJess]

I take opinion polls with a pinch of salt

Opinion polls are just a forecast made up partly from a combination of a survey from a small group of people and partly from past results. Opinion polls and even exit polls, have been known to be wrong in the past.

I've not personally been surveyed, so the opinion poll doesn't include my opinion.

At the end of the day, the only poll that really matters/counts is the actual ballet box on the day.