Interesting to see opinions on this forum after the exit poll. I said before that I wouldn't vote living in a strong tory seat and supporting brexit, but I ended up 'voting' and spoiled my ballot paper 20 minutes before 10pm by drawing a giant p*nis on it.
My prediction - I think Labour will do better than many people think, but we'll end up with a relatively small Tory majority, but significant enough to get the Brexit deal through. Then, fairly quickly the Tory infighting will reignite into crisis when it has to be decided what the future relationship with Europe looks like. They'll become quite unpopular quite quickly, like they did after 1992 - leading to some sort of change and eventual reset, like 1997.
It all depends how Brexit is handled, whether the WA is amended or not (which is going to determine how far we follow the Political Declaration). A '1997' reset is an extremely vague way of describing an extremely complicated set of events.
'Populism' hasn't got a cure, unless the symptoms are fundamentally addressed. And right now, distrust with politicians, particularly from the main parties, is at an all time low (given what surveys suggest, and I think it's pretty obvious in day to day conversation anyway). Boris' support , in my opinion, is incredibly weak because he's relying on his ability to deliver brexit, which is why he's getting in to the labour heartlands; they are basing their support on his ability to deliver what they voted for. What happens if we end up extending the WA to 2022, as the EU officials suggest will happen, or makes a big negotiation screw up? His entire basis of election breaks down.
Beppe Grillo from Italy (5 star movement leader) has this whole thing nailed down perfectly. It's not about left and right anymore. That thing is so 20th century. I think pro vs anti globalisation is perhaps more accurate of how it is now, but it goes further. It's about the new digital age, where people are incredibly aware of everything that happens in politics, and feel like they need a stronger voice, and they feel that representative/parliamentary democracy has failed them.
Having said that, replacing Corbyn is the big question right now. How do you do it with momentum pulling all the strings? Could a centrist really get back in and how much would that help them?