2024 UK general election predictions and general discussion.

[BigT]

Your attitude to this seems very self centred.

Don’t want to pay the tax? Plenty of good state schools are available.

But I already explained how this tax gives no benefit to the exchequer so for me to then transfer to a state school that would cost the taxpayer, great idea.


Of course my attitude is self centred, we aren’t talking twiddly winks here, for me to pay that extra £6k per year I have to earn £10k as remember that income is already taxed on top of actually paying the £30k fee. (50k before tax)
Surprise news flash for you here, not all parents are millionaires with huge trust funds from grandma, some of us have to actually earn that money and already paid tax on it.
Luckily I only have one year left to pay for otherwise discussions would have to take place.

 

[tayspru]

The thing about Labour’s pledge on private school VAT is that it’s not going to lose them any votes they didn’t have in the first place.

Only 7% of kids attend private school and the number of *those* families that actually will be priced out is probably even smaller

Personally, I don’t agree with private education as all you’re buying is access to connections regardless of actual aptitude (see : the entire Conservative government)

 

[rob666]

But I already explained how this tax gives no benefit to the exchequer so for me to then transfer to a state school that would cost the taxpayer, great idea.


Of course my attitude is self centred, we aren’t talking twiddly winks here, for me to pay that extra £6k per year I have to earn £10k as remember that income is already taxed on top of actually paying the £30k fee. (50k before tax)
Surprise news flash for you here, not all parents are millionaires with huge trust funds from grandma, some of us have to actually earn that money and already paid tax on it.
Luckily I only have one year left to pay for otherwise discussions would have to take place.

So you are one of the lucky ones who got your children privileged access to private education VAT free.
And you still complain.

And explain again, charging VAT on all private education would give no benefit to the exchequer, as I have read several times, in different papers, with different political slants, that this would still make around a billion quid a year, in net benefit, to the taxpayer.

Large numbers of parents with children in private education earn a great deal more than the national average, with or without granny's inheritance.
Simple fact...so tax them on the privilege of private education. You are giving your kids an unfair start in life..., so you have to pay for it.

The rich would still send their little oiks to private education...the less rich would just have to work a little bit harder to fund their education.
As song as they all pay the tax, then it is a little more fair than things were.

Me, I would shut the lot.
Every last one.

We all know how well our recent Eton prime ministers have done working for equality and justice.

Edit...and election bingo, one our Tom missed.
"Scrap the Equality Act".
Get in there, full house.

 

[Dave]

At the end of the day private education is a luxury, and luxury’s are taxed.

If people want to debate VAT as a concept then fine, but you can’t say private education is exempt.

 

[Matt.GC]

That's a very reductive way to think of floating voters. I've voted for all the major parties over the years depending what I think is right for the country at the time. That doesn't make me a Tory, the whole point is I don't have a default.

Before now I've voted against my manifestal and to some extent ideological preference in favour of my belief in the competence of one party over another, and the opposite. It's all balancing act each election time. I don't see either side as good or evil, as inherently right or wrong. It's not that black and white.

This election is Labours to lose though, and apathy if they dont present as being worth a vote against conservative must be a real risk. The pathetic fannying about over Diane Abbot I think has been more harmful to Labour than they realise, they need to get it together now to see it home.

If you assume that floating voters and those that are telling pollsters they still "don't know" or are "undecided" in an election where the opposition party has had a consistent lead for nearly 3 years are exactly the same thing. Which they're not. Floating voters form part of the don't knows and undecideds, they're not the definition of it.

Pollsters have publicly grappled with this for decades. They know that there is a Conservative bounce back effect, and have publicly stated that. The extent and make-up of that effect is the main reason the polls differ as they all price it in to their models in a different way.

With the Conservatives being as unpopular as they are, and even struggling themselves to articulate why their term in office should be extended by another 5 years based on their track record, I would imagine a great deal of those that end up voting for them at the eleventh hour won't be doing so publicly, and may even do so reluctantly. Even if you live in a fairly safe Tory seat like I do, look around the neighbourhood and see how many people are displaying Conservative campaign material this time round amidst all the red, green and yellow.

The UK Conservative Party is the most successful political entity in the developed world by cementing themselves as the national default who almost always move the centre ground when they are in office. They loose when they go too far and the opposition concede to where they've now moved this centre ground to. It's a remarkable party in that way. The core base support is strong, and they'll be out on polling day, they just won't make a song and dance of it. Completely different to floating voters.

 

[rob666]

At the end of the day private education is a luxury, and luxury’s are taxed.

If people want to debate VAT as a concept then fine, but you can’t say private education is exempt.

Or a bloody charity either.

 

[Benzin]

I see that the anti-trans rhetoric is out in full force from the Tories.

Also sounds like Farage will actually be standing for election as a MP in Clacton. Presumably because it's about the only place that's still insanely pro-UKIP/Reform in the country.

 

[Dobba]

I see that the anti-trans rhetoric is out in full force from the Tories.

Also sounds like Farage will actually be standing for election as a MP in Clacton. Presumably because it's about the only place that's still insanely pro-UKIP/Reform in the country.

What's the opposition's rhetoric on the subject?

 

[Benzin]

What's the opposition's rhetoric on the subject?

Probably some half baked stuff that'll play well to the Sun reading crowd.

Usual Starmer.



Also yay Farage is a leader again. Clearly seeing the Trump gravy train crashing so deciding to stick his oar back into UK politics.

Can hope he fails again.

 

[Alsty]

Farage is like a turd that won't go away no matter how many times you flush. He always turns up when he thinks there's an opportunity to further his self interests

 

[shakey]

Farage is like a turd that won't go away no matter how many times you flush. He's always turns up when he thinks there's an opportunity to further his self interests

Isn't that most politicians ?

A bit unfair to single out Farage on that.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

 

[Dobba]

Probably some half baked stuff that'll play well to the Sun reading crowd.

Usual Starmer.

If you can clock a difference between the Tories and Starmer on trans issues, you've got better eyesight than me.

Back to 'you must vote Labour to keep the Tories out' news:

From: https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1797663013572333672

 

[Tom]

I now estimate the death penalty coming into campaign(s) by 10 June.

Also coming soon: the abolishment of the television licence, and mandatory acceptance of cash as payment.

 

[Matt.GC]

Farage coming back for the umpteenth time is potentially big news for this election. It certainly makes things more interesting. I think he has a real chance in Clacton, and all Reform needs is a couple of percentage points to turn no seats into a handful. I had this feeling deep down that he wouldn't resist. He strikes me as an opportunist who has an inflated sense of himself due to how much he's managed to shape British politics, and get the most successful party in British history to bend to his will, all from a sedentary position.

The Tories chasing down Reform on the right flank was always a stupid thing to do in my opinion. I know they're trying to protect the base, but they should probably have conceded to Reform and pushed Labour off the centre and towards the left. They'd still loose, but it would deprive Labour of some seats. I think it's a poor choice of enemies. Reform effectively have their own 24 hour propaganda TV channel in the form of GB News. Regardless of the Clacton outcome, Reform just got alot louder for the next 5 weeks, and I don't think the "vote Reform get Starmer" attacks will work considering the visual representation that the polls currently present.

 

[Craig]

If you can clock a difference between the Tories and Starmer on trans issues, you've got better eyesight than me.

Without turning this into a trans rights topic - I can. The difference is that as shown in the press coverage today, the Tories are actively weaponising trans issues. The majority of the voting public personally have higher priorities in their mind as shown in IPSOS’s issues tracker:



Of course the media lap it up with the old “what is a woman?” question, when the issue is much more complex and difficult to address and indeed explain, especially to those who have zero clue about the subject (which again, is most people). But ultimately, people want to be able to see their doctor, not wait for an ambulance for hours on end or not have to pay a fortune for a tin of corned beef over trans issues. Yes, trans rights are important, but they shouldn’t be used in order to score cheap political points.

I get that you’re not a Labour fan, and that’s fine. But we’re talking about the campaign in general here rather than whataboutery on specifics. Surely you can see a distinct difference between the way the Tories are harping on about this versus Labour?

Back to the campaign in general, and I’m amazed that the Tories are still going with the old “project fear” slant. Their election broadcast just seems to be a droning warning about Labour. That’d work in previous elections I guess, but when people have just stopped listening to them they need some bigger and bolder than Labour=Bad


From: https://x.com/conservatives/status/1797676601640927437?s=61


I’m just perplexed how this campaign is desperately going after the grey and Reform vote, it’s an ever reducing group of people and they’ve done nothing to attract a younger demographic. In some cases such as the national service policy, it’s actively driven them away.

It’s all now bit them in the backside even more so with Farage entering the fray. It’ll be interesting to see what the next batch of polls say next week. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch mind

 

[Tom]

Would be interesting to know how many people that voted Tory in 2019, were planning on going (back) to Labour, but will not lean towards Reform. Could be a negligible amount but he does resonate on Brexit and immigration, which - particularly in the case of the latter - the Conservative Party has well and truly effed right up.

 

[cloudburster]

Oui, the Tories are trying to weaponise the conflict between the trans movement and Womens rights in particular, whereas Labour is (finally) addressing it in a reality-based, logical way. The wider public has MUCH bigger things to worry about of course, but that doesn't mean the rights and lived experiences of Women, gay people and children in reference to the the trans issue are not important to many voters. People think its all Daily Heil readers and frothing gammons taking issue with gender identity when it's not, not even remotely. It is a deeply complex and broad subject and as much as it irks me that Labour spent SO long demonising those within the party for having views that don't align with online gender orthodoxy, I'm relieved that they have seen sense and are very much moving beyond being permanently terrified of gender activists. This subject needs some adults back in the room, not only because the conversation is complicated, but because the more hardline views and takes are actively doing damage to trans acceptance across the board.

Also interesting to see the Corbyn Cult pushing out blatant misinformation to smear Wes Streeting just today. The left continues its obsession with copying the tactics of the right. Remember when fake news was deemed bad by the left around 2016 or so? I member. I dread to think where our elections will be in 5 years (hell, maybe less) with the speed at which AI audio and deepfakes etc are advancing and the level of dumb that exists in our internet-connected populace.


From: https://x.com/men4wes/status/1797642236186038426?s=46



From: https://x.com/wesstreeting/status/1797690484779098515?s=46&t=0RSpQEWd71gFfa-U_NmvkA

 

[Matt N]

In an interesting development, YouGov have now conducted their first MRP poll of the 2024 election: https://news.sky.com/story/labour-c...94-seat-commons-majority-yougov-poll-13147370

The YouGov MRP poll has often been quite accurate in recent years, with them accurately predicting Theresa May’s loss of majority in 2017 as well as coming quite close to predicting the scale of Boris Johnson’s victory in 2019. With this in mind, I think that while nothing is ever confirmed, it’s an interesting prediction to consider.

YouGov are predicting that Labour will win with an unprecedented 194-seat majority. This would be a larger majority than Blair attained in 1997, and the largest majority attained by any governing party since 1924. Other headline predictions include the worst Tory loss since 1904, a resurgence for the Liberal Democrats and quite a considerable downfall for the SNP in Scotland.

In terms of the exact seat numbers, vote shares and seat number changes compared to the result in 2019 had it been fought on the current seat boundaries, the predictions are as follows:

• Labour: 422 (42.9%, +222)
• Conservatives: 140 (24.5%, -232)
• Liberal Democrats: 48 (10.6%, +40)
• Scottish National Party: 17 (2.8%, -31)
• Plaid Cymru: 2 (0.7%, 0)
• Green Party: 2 (6.7%, +1)
• Reform UK: 0 (10.1%, 0)
• Others: 18 (1.7%, 0)

Nothing is confirmed, of course, and it could all change in the next month or so, but if this YouGov poll has any hint of truth in it, which its accurate predictions from 2017 and 2019 would suggest that it might, then perhaps those predictions of a Labour landslide may not be quite so far fetched after all…

I’m still personally hesitant that Starmer and the Labour Party are popular enough in isolation to get this sort of landslide, but I’m willing to be proven wrong.

 

[Matt.GC]

It's certainly a more realistic poll than some of the other crazy ones I've seen. A long way to go, and it won't be fully representative of the Dianne Abbott debacle, or representative at all of Farage's decision to stand. I just can't see a possibility of Labour breaching 400 seats or the SNP collapsing below 20.

 

[Dobba]

Without turning this into a trans rights topic - I can. The difference is that as shown in the press coverage today, the Tories are actively weaponising trans issues. The majority of the voting public personally have higher priorities in their mind as shown in IPSOS’s issues tracker:



Of course the media lap it up with the old “what is a woman?” question, when the issue is much more complex and difficult to address and indeed explain, especially to those who have zero clue about the subject (which again, is most people). But ultimately, people want to be able to see their doctor, not wait for an ambulance for hours on end or not have to pay a fortune for a tin of corned beef over trans issues. Yes, trans rights are important, but they shouldn’t be used in order to score cheap political points.

So what's the difference between the two parties on this issue, that the Tories bring it up more often?

Both think transwomen aren't women, both want to implement the Cass review in full.