2024 UK general election predictions and general discussion.

[Thameslink Rail]

I'm getting plenty from Labour but for some reason they're giving me memes:
From: https://youtube.com/shorts/ALH7_oSoWZo?si=L_lGKs-M0zyZxewb

Interesting tactic.

 

[Matt N]

South West is prime Tory territory though. It'll be area based marketing as well.

That’s a good point that I didn’t consider. They showed the electoral map of South West England on Points West the other day, and I was quite shocked at just how much the Tories dominate this region; apart from a couple of Labour seats in Bristol and maybe the odd Lib Dem here and there, the region is almost entirely Tory.

Indeed, my own constituency, the Forest of Dean, was 60% Tory at the last election, voted 60% in favour of Brexit, and has been Tory for about as long as I remember (our current MP is a Cabinet minister and has served this constituency since the 2000s). So I think it’s fair to say that I live in a fairly safe Tory stronghold!

I reckon that the Tories could well hold this seat, too. To overturn the 60% Tory vote from 2019 would require a massive swing to Labour, and even the YouGov MRP poll predicting Labour winning 422 seats reckoned that the Forest of Dean was a “tossup” between a Labour gain and a Tory hold.

I'm getting plenty from Labour but for some reason they're giving me memes:
From: https://youtube.com/shorts/ALH7_oSoWZo?si=L_lGKs-M0zyZxewb

Interesting tactic.

That doesn’t seem that surprising to me given that the young vote is a prime demographic for Labour. I guess memes and TikTok videos are probably a decent way to engage younger voters!

 

[cloudburster]

I'm getting plenty from Labour but for some reason they're giving me memes:
From: https://youtube.com/shorts/ALH7_oSoWZo?si=L_lGKs-M0zyZxewb

Interesting tactic.

 

[Dobba]

Starmer said some good stuff, particularly with regard to Great British Energy...

Do you mean when he lied about it being an energy generating company, after letting the cat out of the bag about it not being one but instead an investment vehicle on BBC Radio Scotland last week?

 

[jon81uk]

Apparently the tories are focusing on 80 seats it came closest to losing in last election and 20 seats it came closest to winning. So if you live in any of those 100 constiuancies you are more likely to see a Facebook ad for them. https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ing-ostrich-strategy-on-facebook-campaign-ads

 

[IanB]

Its worth noting, the £2,000 figure it actually over four years, so if it was real, it would only be £500 per year, £42 per month, or £10.50 per week.

If you were to do the same thing with the Tory policy to scrap NI, the figure you would get is £14,400.

It is the worst kind of politics, and goes back to the Brexit vote leave buses. Just make something up, say it often enough, and people will believe it. Is it any wonder people lose trust in politicians.

 

[BigT]

Private education, only enjoyed by a mere 5.9% of UK kids being seen as anything other than a luxury? That's a strange view.

Just because it’s “enjoyed” by 5.9% doesn’t make it a luxury.
Prison is enjoyed by 0.15% of Adults, doesn’t that make that even more of a luxury by that statement?

I really think there are a lot of myths that need to be quashed around independent schools, firstly it’s not luxury, certainly my daughter’s school isn’t, it’s just a normal old school building.
40% of the pupils are either on a scholarship or bursary so pay reduced fees or no fees at all at her school.
Most independent schools are or are close to being bankrupt.
There simply are not the places available in state schools if all independent schools closed.
Teachers that work in independent schools are very unlikely to transfer to state schools as housing etc. is normally included as part of the salary package so they stay onsite.
A 20% reduction in pupils will close most independent schools.
Most independent schools open up the facilities to the community, all of the state primary schools use the pool at my daughters school at no cost to them.
VAT is not applied to education in any other country in the EU.

 

[IanB]

There is nothing wrong with sending your children to private school, or going private for medical treatment. Just as there is nothing wrong with buying a luxury car. If you have a job which means you can afford these things, then it is a premium experience you can enjoy and benefit from.

It is a Luxury though. If you choose that the local public schools are not right for your Children, and pay for them to go to a private school, it is a luxury. How else do you describe it?

The prison comparison is just silly.

 

[Matt N]

Just because it’s “enjoyed” by 5.9% doesn’t make it a luxury.
Prison is enjoyed by 0.15% of Adults, doesn’t that make that even more of a luxury by that statement?

I really think there are a lot of myths that need to be quashed around independent schools, firstly it’s not luxury, certainly my daughter’s school isn’t, it’s just a normal old school building.
40% of the pupils are either on a scholarship or bursary so pay reduced fees or no fees at all at her school.
Most independent schools are or are close to being bankrupt.
There simply are not the places available in state schools if all independent schools closed.
Teachers that work in independent schools are very unlikely to transfer to state schools as housing etc. is normally included as part of the salary package so they stay onsite.
A 20% reduction in pupils will close most independent schools.
Most independent schools open up the facilities to the community, all of the state primary schools use the pool at my daughters school at no cost to them.
VAT is not applied to education in any other country in the EU.

I think private school is being called a luxury because unlike your cited example of prison, which is indiscriminately forced upon people of all financial class demographics, it is a lifestyle choice made almost exclusively by the richest echelons of society. In fact, it’s a lifestyle choice only really available to the richest echelons of society.

While scholarships and bursaries do exist, these only go so far. I imagine that even people who get into private school with a scholarship or bursary will still have considerable expenses for other costs associated with it, like extra-curriculars, uniform and such.

Fundamentally, people who are able to send their children to private school normally have at least a certain degree of financial privilege. Think about it this way; an affluent family living in a multi-bedroom mansion will be able to choose private school, whereas that same choice is not available to a working-class family living on a council estate simply by virtue of the cost (these are just examples). I’m aware that some people really scrimp to send their kids to private school, but for many working-class people, even scrimping won’t generate enough money to afford private schooling. With that in mind, people who can afford to send their children to private school have a clear financial privilege over many people in the UK, and being able to have a private education is a luxury.


Private education is a privilege, not a right. Very few people in the country can afford it, so I’d definitely call it a luxury for those are able to afford it.

 

[Matt.GC]

That’s a good point that I didn’t consider. They showed the electoral map of South West England on Points West the other day, and I was quite shocked at just how much the Tories dominate this region; apart from a couple of Labour seats in Bristol and maybe the odd Lib Dem here and there, the region is almost entirely Tory.

Indeed, my own constituency, the Forest of Dean, was 60% Tory at the last election, voted 60% in favour of Brexit, and has been Tory for about as long as I remember (our current MP is a Cabinet minister and has served this constituency since the 2000s). So I think it’s fair to say that I live in a fairly safe Tory stronghold!

I reckon that the Tories could well hold this seat, too. To overturn the 60% Tory vote from 2019 would require a massive swing to Labour, and even the YouGov MRP poll predicting Labour winning 422 seats reckoned that the Forest of Dean was a “tossup” between a Labour gain and a Tory hold.

Didn't used to be that way. Used to be Liberal Democrat heartlands. That map would have looked a mixture of blue and yellow, with a dot of red for the Bristol constituencies, prior to 2015. That's what I don't think many pollsters understood about the Lib Dem collapse in 2015. They were the anti-tories around here, so I thought it would be blindingly obvious that Cameron would sweep the region with blue after Clegg propped them up.

I think Bristol central could well turn Green, with the other 4 red. Outskirts such as North Somerset, and Thornbury and Yate turning yellow. Green bullseye, surrounded by red, then surrounded by yellow. Could look like a dartboard.



Reece-Mogg has lost some of his posher Somerset villages and gained a load of South East Bristolians due to boundary changes so he looks vulnerable in some polls.



Meanwhile, our Tory boy could be in trouble out here in the Mare due to him also loosing some posher outskirt villages due to boundary changes, his constituency is now more urban than ever. Could be a random red pimple on the map that's never ever been there before.

 

[jon81uk]

There is nothing wrong with sending your children to private school, or going private for medical treatment. Just as there is nothing wrong with buying a luxury car. If you have a job which means you can afford these things, then it is a premium experience you can enjoy and benefit from.

It is a Luxury though. If you choose that the local public schools are not right for your Children, and pay for them to go to a private school, it is a luxury. How else do you describe it?

The prison comparison is just silly.

Although I don't think private healthcare and dentistry has VAT charged on it either because its medical.

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

Most independent schools are or are close to being bankrupt.

A 20% reduction in pupils will close most independent schools.

40% of the pupils are either on a scholarship or bursary so pay reduced fees or no fees at all at her school.

I'm struggling to think of any other business, or industry, which could be demonstrably run so poorly that those on the right would want to bail it out. Although the elephant in the room is surprised that with all of these "downsides" to private education, you still strive to send your children to it. This, of course, suggests that really there's an awful funding problem with state schools in the first instance.

If you insist on sending children to private schools, because they're better performing or "better schools", then it stands to reason that you view the problem with state education. If state education is the problem, let's fund it properly and remove private enterprise from it. There's no money to fund state eduction properly, right? Although you do have lots of parents who are willing to fork out tens of thousands of pounds, per year, in fees. If people want to pay to improve the educational experiences of their children's, that's fine. They can pay it directly to the local education authority that the child is in, and not a private enterprise.

Prison is enjoyed by 0.15% of Adults

Prisons are places of abject horror, suffering and misery; to suggest otherwise is inhumane, cruel and unempathetic.

 

[Tom]

...and as far as I'm aware you don't pay for the privilege.

 

[Matt.GC]

Just because it’s “enjoyed” by 5.9% doesn’t make it a luxury.
Prison is enjoyed by 0.15% of Adults, doesn’t that make that even more of a luxury by that statement?

I apologise for the late response. Please take this how it is intended. This kind of stuff doesn't work on me, I want to make clear.

You sometimes make plenty of points that I think are worthy of debate. But not unlike a post you made a couple of years ago when you quite clearly pretended you were completely unaware of the Truss mini budget, I wanted you to know that I'm fully aware of when you are baiting.

May I kindly ask that you have a little bit more respect for me and other members than this. We both know that everyone is capable of telling the difference between a state run prison and a private school. Without wanting to sound like Simon McCoy when "Mike Oxlong" texted in, I'm well aware of when someone throws a grenade in an to attempt to spark interesting discussion. Funny as it sometimes can be, I think you and everyone else is better than that.

 

[GaryH]

Respectfully, there are a lot of young people in this forum without children, and attitudes/opinions change dramatically when you do have them with regards education.

Your child only has one shot at getting a good education which will set them up for the rest of their life. In many parts of the country you will find lots of schools rated poor, or needing improvement. You may be lucky to live in a catchment area with a school rated outstanding, but for many they are not. So what option do you as a parent have - either send them to an underperforming school where they may get an average job, or if you can afford it, send them to a school which will give them a good education which will get them a good job in the future. I'm not sure penalising children's education to raise some money is morally correct - there are plenty of other ways to get extra money when you look at the millionaires in this country spending a fortune on watches, jewellery, stupidly priced designer clothing, private flights, or maybe new gold taps in their seven bathrooms, or a new swimming pool in the basement of their Mayfair apartment block. Why now whack up the VAT on these luxury items which are not a necessity like a good education is. Put that money into the state schools.

There are lots of items which could attract a much higher rate of VAT that the very rich could still afford easily.

Same with Private Healthcare and Dentistry. Is that a luxury or a necessity at the moment. I pay for both each month - not because I see it as a luxury but because I see it as absolutely necessary at the moment. There are no private dentists in the South West, and healthcare is on its knees - so if I or my partner or child need urgent treatment, I don't want us to wait a long time to get it. Again, its a necessity not a luxury so they should not attract 20% VAT.

If state schools, the NHS and dentistry was good enough then hardly anyone would be wanting to spend extra from their wages to pay for private, but the state of the country of the moment these are necessities rather than luxuries.

 

[rob666]

Respectfully, there are people of all ages on this forum without children, right across the age range on this particular forum.
Private education is a costly option for the rich.
It is not an option for the poor, whatever the catchment area.
No other option for them.
And I have seen first hand how "charitable" scholarships can screw up young minds...locally at a very posh college.
Education is not "One shot and you are done"...not been that way since the sixties...the option to return to education is always there...and one on here has just completed the adult equivalent of their maths o level.
Private dentistry, hospitals and schools are only for those that can afford them, they are exclusive, on cost grounds, and should be charged accordingly.
For a great many hard working people with children, private is not an option, and never has been...they really are luxuries, not necessities.
Tax the wants, not the needs.
That simple.

 

[Alsty]

@GaryH they all sound like reasons to invest in public services to me. The alternative is we all increasingly have to pay for access to (what used to be) public services, and the gap between the rich and poor grows. Some people get left behind unable to afford access at all.

Finland does not have a private school system and their students fair better than in the UK. Perhaps one factor is people who want their kids to do well will want their taxes spent in education, which benefits all students. When there's a private system, the money goes to benefiting only those students, thus the gap gets wider with those from richer families having better opportunities than those from poorer backgrounds.

I don't think continuing down this path does society any favours in the long term.

 

[GaryH]

Respectfully, there are people of all ages on this forum without children, right across the age range on this particular forum.

I am sure there are, I was just highlighting there is a member base here who are young and do not yet have children.

Anyway, I feel you are both missing the point here -

Because of the state of the country, education, healthcare, dentistry are all a necessity, not a luxury. People (who can afford it) are pushed into paying for it rather than having to rely on the state. And those who do pay extra for these are in a way already helping the state by reducing the number of kids going to overcrowded state schools, not being on NHS waiting lists and not using up the scarce number of NHS dental appointments. You only have to see the news reports of people pulling their own teeth out with pliars because they cant get a dentist to realise how bad the situation is.

I don't think continuing down this path does society any favours in the long term.

I agree, but at the moment I don't see any other option until things improve in the country. Once I can get a decent NHS dentist where I live and where I can get an appointment in a short timeframe then i'll stop paying private, but until then, its a necessary that I do. Once NHS waiting lists come down and I can get an appointment in a reasonable timeframe, then i'll stop paying private. Again, until the country is in a better place, its necessary that I do.

But in the perfect world, we wouldn't need to be paying additional for these things - the facilities in the country should be good enough, as you have highlighted with the schools in Finland.

Edit : Just pop this in here - i'm sure this significant rise in people using private healthcare isnt because they see it as a luxury, but more as a necessity due to the NHS being unable to provide the care they need.

Infographic: Overburdened NHS Pushes More Brits To Go Private

This chart shows the share of people in the UK that are paying for private health insurance.

www.statista.com

Lets also not forget the number of people who are paying for treatment without insurance because the NHS waiting time is too long. Many of whom have used up savings they have built up rather then be in agony for up to 2 years.

 

[BarryZola]

I've got to be honest, I don't feel very strongly that VAT is absolutely necessary on private education. I can absolutely see why some parents would work hard and want to get their children out of some of the scummy local schools in and around their area. Some schools are full of unruly kids who have a detrimental effect on the education of the kids who actually want to learn, and the teachers are so poorly paid which generally (not always) means that you get a lesser quality of teaching, especially when they have larger classes to deal with and are spending time trying to deal with bad behaviour from those who don't want to learn. Why allow your kids to be held back if you can afford to pay a bit more for them to have a chance to fulfil their natural potential? There are other areas where more money could be generated and I feel that this is just an easy headline grabber. I don't have kids though, so it's not something that's of great importance to me.

 

[Alsty]

Once I can get a decent NHS dentist where I live and where I can get an appointment in a short timeframe then i'll stop paying private, but until then, its a necessary that I do. Once NHS waiting lists come down and I can get an appointment in a reasonable timeframe, then i'll stop paying private. Again, until the country is in a better place, its necessary that I do.

Vote Tory and those things will improve..?