2024 UK general election predictions and general discussion.

[BigT]

On a different note, I found a rather interesting poll that appears to be completely at odds with the rest of the election polling I’ve seen, from UKPollingReport. Take a look at this: https://pollingreport.uk/polls

Their latest prediction is as follows:

• Labour: 372 (41%)
• Conservatives: 194 (21%)
• Liberal Democrats: 37 (11.3%)
• Scottish National Party: 24 (2.6%)
• Reform UK: 2 (16.2%)
• Green Party: 1 (5.2%)
• Other: 20 (2.8%)

To me, something similar to this seems a little bit more likely than all of the polls predicting a complete Conservative wipeout, a Liberal Democrat opposition and a Labour majority of epic proportions, but I could be wrong.

Believe me, I would love to be wrong, as I think a huge Labour landslide could be quite exciting to watch unfold! But I’m not sure I see a Blair-beating Labour landslide and a total Conservative wipeout with them potentially not even being the opposition.

That’s about what I would expect now tbh, Starmer just isn’t popular enough to pull off a huge landslide.

 

[DiogoJ42]

Here's what we've had through the door so far. 3x Gits, 5x Commies, 2x Hippies. It's all a waste of time given that this is one of the safest Tory seats in the country, on the edge of ULEZ to boot.
They don't even have the common decency to make the paper thick enough to use as roach card any more.

 

[Thameslink Rail]

I moved house a couple of weeks ago so I'm getting pamphlets for my new constituency and forwarded ones from my old house. I am therefore being told that Labour will not win here and I should be worried Labour will win a supermajority here.

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

As @Matt N is planning on staying up to watch the whole election evening results coverage, no backing out now, I thought that he (and others) might enjoy this delightful article from The Guardian about what to drink on the evening.

Champagne, cava, crémant: the 10 best bottles of bubbly for UK election night parties

Whether you prefer to pop the cork on prosecco, English fizz or alcohol-free, these sparkling wines should get your vote, says Sophia Longhi

www.theguardian.com

Something about chickens, counting and hatching. Shouldn't bother geese though.

 

[Jonathan]

As @Matt N is planning on staying up to watch the whole election evening results coverage, no backing out now, I thought that he (and others) might enjoy this delightful article from The Guardian about what to drink on the evening.

Champagne, cava, crémant: the 10 best bottles of bubbly for UK election night parties

Whether you prefer to pop the cork on prosecco, English fizz or alcohol-free, these sparkling wines should get your vote, says Sophia Longhi

www.theguardian.com

Something about chickens, counting and hatching. Shouldn't bother geese though.

I'm working on Friday, but I reserve the right to go to the shops at lunchtime and buy a bottle of bubbly, because reasons.

 

[Matt.GC]

Are Sunak and The Telegraph right, and will a Labour government be something to fear?

My presumption from this statement is that you are trying to spark up a debate about the downsides of an incoming Labour government, rather than you declaring that you've fallen for the obvious marketing tactics of playing 'evil music' and making things up in a political advertisement.

Just in case it's the latter:

This ad was put forward by the Conservatives in 1978, when the unemployment rate was approaching 6%.



The Conservatives won a year later in 1979, and unemployment doubled, peaking at a staggering 11.9% in 1984, 5 years into a Tory government.

This ad featured during the 1997 campaign, as the Conservatives tried to convey the message of Satanic forces behind Tony Blair.


Tony Blair ending up being a 'One Nation' Tory, and loved nothing more than winning elections and invading other countries with his mate Bush. However, reliable sources have confirmed that he does not lay on beds of Brimstone, and he has no numbers imprinted on the back of his head.

Talking of Blair, this cheesy ad indicated that, not only did Blair not know who to vote for in 97 (evident in how indecisive he is with the polling paper in his hand), but that he also wore beige chinos.


From: https://youtu.be/gi5j7jjhm4M?si=xnQczkJhvAJ_lloM


I never saw him in beige chinos after that.

There's this rather excellent Green party ad from 2015:


From: https://youtu.be/PPgS7p40ERg?si=7RriZh5M2KIHcWyL


As far as I'm aware, David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Milliband, and Nigel Farage have never officially created a boy band together.

So I doubt very much that you'll wake up on Friday with Evil Music permeating around your bedroom, no electricity, and having to cancel your Portadventura trip.

 

[rob666]

...and of course, every last person in the queue in the "Labour isn't working" poster is a Tory activist.
That is what the dole queue will be like next week with Tory spads.

 

[Slugjc]

Less than 24 hours to go. The excitement is ramping up.

Bad day for the Tories again yesterday. Insinuating starmer would only react to a national emergency, after he has finished his Friday night dinner with his Jewish wife. And of course, being that desperate that Boris had to brought forward.

Speaking of the above "L is for labour. L is for lice" style advertising above. Interesting segment on James O'Brian's show yesterday around political advertising. Very little legislation on what you can or can't do. Literally able to print lies. More legislation on the advertising of crisps than political content. I just find that mad.

Anyway, labour have properly stepped up in our area. 5 leaflets and 1 personalised letter to me this week. Greens are giving it's a go to, I guess they smell blood in the form of reform. As my auntie always says "the greens are just Tories on bikes."

 

[rob666]

In my personal experience, the greens are far more like the communist party on bikes.
Comrade.

 

[Matt N]

There are less than 24 hours to go until polling opens, and interestingly, it seems as though we’ve seen little to no narrowing in Labour’s opinion poll lead. That lead still seems very stubbornly high.

This now leads me to believe that unless the pollsters have been lied to on an epic scale, we are most likely getting a considerable Labour majority on Friday.

I’ve seen people online doubting the accuracy of the opinion polls, citing 1992 and 2015 as examples of them being wrong and saying that they think the Tories will win or Labour will only have a minority government, but I think that we’d need an opinion poll error of epic, epic proportions for the outcome to be anything other than a Labour majority. Besides, opinion polling and MRP models have grown remarkably sophisticated and accurate in recent years compared to 1992 and even 2015; YouGov’s MRP poll was pretty accurate in the case of both 2017 and 2019, and they’re predicting a resounding Labour landslide.

I do wonder if the scale of Labour victory is being overstated by some opinion polls, as well as the scale of Tory defeat, but I do think that the result is likely to be a decisive Labour majority.

With that being said, we should not be complacent. If you want the Tories gone, you need to get out and cast your vote accordingly. Don’t just think “Oh, Labour will win anyway” and stay at home. If you want an outcome, whatever that outcome is, get out and vote for it. The election is not a foregone conclusion, despite what I said above about the opinion polls.

 

[cloudburster]

I'm just ready for it to be over at this point. Looking forward to the coverage tomorrow night, but my previous attempts to watch it all ended with being slumped over asleep. Im usually quite excited going into voting, but this is the first time I've been genuinely apathetic about it. I'm going to vote for a party that doesn't represent me, Alliance, but who will help bring about change in my local area and NI as a whole. My pals from my years in England and Scotland are voting Labour with a similar feeling of apathy, but with a determination to bring about the same change we need over here. What that change will be remains to be seen, but it will be a change. It's not the 90s, Blur, D:Ream and optimism we saw with Blair, but its a step towards steamrolling the culture of sleaze and corruption perpetuated by the Conservatives for the past 13 years.

Lets just gerron with it!

 

[shakey]

Just looking at the latest predictions and if correct, the Lib Dems would be the official opposition.

That is a seismic shift in UK politics and could be the first time a party other than Labour or Conservative has sat in opposition for over 100 years.

Interestingly though, they are predicted to get a lower vote share than 2019. Just shows what a strange system we have.

Whether the Lib dems manage to be the second largest party remains to be seen but what a turn around for them after being almost wiped out at the end of the coalition with the conservatives.

I have been unsure who to vote for , flip flopping from Green, to reform to Lib Dems and back again. In the end I have plumped for Lib Dems, but it won't make any difference where I live.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

 

[rob666]

Shakey, shouldn't you be asleep at your desk at work by now???
Long shift coming, us oldies need our sleep somehow you know.

 

[shakey]

Shakey, shouldn't you be asleep at your desk at work by now???
Long shift coming, us oldies need our sleep somehow you know.

Early night tonight.

5:30am alarm.
Get to polling station for about 6:20am to set up
Seal the ballot box lid at 7am and away we go
15 hours in a pub and no alcohol !!!
Seal the ballot box closed at 10pm
Do the paperwork then take the ballot box to the count at the sports centre
Count verification starting about 10:45pm followed by the full count
Hoping to finish some time between 3am and 4am
Should be home before 5am on Friday

And I have booked Friday off work so a nice lie in till lunch time.

It's a very long day but I need the money

 

[DiogoJ42]

15 hours in a pub and no alcohol !!!

Nope.
Nope nope nope nope nope!

 

[Squiggs]

In a weird way, Kier Starmer could actually be set up to have a reasonable premiership.

Given everyone expects him to be a bit underwhelming, we're all going in with low expectations, so even if he performs mildly well it could be seen as a broadly positive step forward.

That said we were also expecting the last three to be a bit bobbins and if anything they were even worse than expected.

Eitherway, Kier could prove to be a breathe of fresh air, or at the very least a gulp of new air.

 

[GaryH]

I do wonder if Angela will eventually push Kier out during their term in power.

 

[shakey]

I do wonder if Angela will eventually push Kier out during their term in power.

I bloody hope not.

Cannot stand that woman

Must be the Lancashire accent !!

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

 

[rob666]

Spoken like a bloody tyke.
Starmer didn't go to Eton.
Good enough for me.

 

[Relife]

This has to be the easiest election Labour have ever had. I think a few of there policies need closer scrutiny but the press are too focus on the Tory Trainwreck and Ed Davy Zorbing his way round the country