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2024 UK general election predictions and general discussion.

What is your predicted polling outcome for the 2024 UK general election

  • Conservative Majority

    Votes: 3 2.5%

  • Conversative Biggest Party in Hung Parliament

    Votes: 2 1.7%

  • Labour Majority

    Votes: 88 72.7%

  • Labour Biggest Party in Hung Parliament

    Votes: 28 23.1%

  • Other Result (Please specify in your post)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    121
BigT said:
I can remember when Cameron won a majority, the exit poll was wrong that night.
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It was, but it’s worth noting that Cameron only narrowly won a majority, and the exit poll only had him narrowly missing a majority. So while the actual outcome was wrong, the number of seats was not overly far wrong.

If Cameron had been predicted a hung parliament and won a 400-seat landslide, then I’d agree that the exit poll was spectacularly wrong. But he only won a very, very slender majority, and the exit poll only had him missing a majority by 10 seats.

I absolutely accept that the exact numbers of seats could be wrong, and they probably are to some degree. But I’d be surprised if it doesn’t predict the general direction of travel with a high degree of accuracy.
 
Matt N said:
The exit poll has been very accurate for pretty much every election in the last 30 years; the only notable fail I can think of is 1992. Even 2015 was only off by around 15 Tory seats; even though it did predict a hung parliament rather than a Tory majority, the actual discrepancy in terms of seats was not that large.

I’d certainly trust the exit poll more than I’d trust any of the opinion polls beforehand, or anyone’s individual predictions at this stage. Plenty of people on political programmes have said “I’ll eat my hat if that exit poll is right…” in previous years, and most have ended up eating said hat!
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Again though, although 1992 wasn't totally accurate, it still predicted the result within a reasonable margin of error. It predicted a Hung Parliament with the Tories as the biggest party. Tories won a small majority. It wasn't the "fail" that it's made out to be.

It was Paddy Ashdown that said that hat eating thing. Because he and the pollsters got it wrong. This Exit Poll could well be similar to 1992 and 2015. So many seats are too close to call, a few hundred votes could change a large amount of seats. Won't change the result, but that number won't be as accurate as the last 2 elections I'd wager.
 
I don’t disagree the result will be the same but I suspect labour ending more like 380 and the tories closer to 160, no way are reform even close to 13 and Lib Dem’s is over stated also.

Starmer will be getting the keys to number 10 for sure so god help us all.
 
BigT said:
Starmer will be getting the keys to number 10 for sure so god help us all.
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Pretty much how I felt about the last 3 elections and look at what happened! Shameful, the country is in the worst state it's been in my entire lifetime and they don't deserve 130 in my view. Completely their own fault. Even Thatcher would have turned in her grave.

BigT said:
I don’t disagree the result will be the same but I suspect labour ending more like 380 and the tories closer to 160, no way are reform even close to 13 and Lib Dem’s is over stated also.
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I don't think Labour will fall much below that. It's the Reform, Tory, Lib Dem, and SNP seats that are mainly on a knife edge. I agree with you I don't think Reform will reach 13, Lib Dems possibly over exaggerated a little.
 
Labour have officially won their first seat in Sunderland South, for Bridget Phillipson, the Shadow Education Secretary… and despite Labour unsurprisingly winning with 18,000 votes, I found the vote shares below far more intriguing.

Reform came second, with 11,000 votes… which is over double the number of votes for the Conservative candidate, who got 5,000.

I’ll admit to being unfamiliar with the specifics of that constituency, but I find it quite surprising that Reform has obtained over double the number of votes that the Conservatives obtained. I think Reform could have a really, really surprisingly big vote share if this is anything to go by in terms of the national picture.

I know that this is the North East, but I do think that 5,000 for the Tories versus 11,000 for Reform and 18,000 for Labour suggest that the Tory vote share has been absolutely annihilated…
 
Labour should be very concerned about the Reform performance. Absolutely stonking for Farage to come second in both. This is an anti-tory and pro-reform election. Labour landslide, but big problems for Labour the next 5 years.
 
My current prediction: Lab win, (no DUH).... but Reform opposition. Net result: The death of the Tories as we know them.
 
I dare say that Farage’s stonking vote share in the two Labour victories we’ve had so far might make a case for a proportional representation voting system… I certainly think it will lead Farage to campaign for it if the successes in the North East are paralleled countrywide, anyhow!
 
What channel is everyone watching it on?

Channel 4 is absolute chaos but box office, Alastair Campbell and Nadine Dorries going at each other every 5 minutes. Some of the most entertaining television I’ve watched in a while.
 
As an ex-BBC staffer, who has worked on their election coverage in the past, and whose partner is currently doing that very thing..... it pains me to say that C4 is far more entertaining right now.
 
Mick said:
What channel is everyone watching it on?

Channel 4 is absolute chaos but box office, Alastair Campbell and Nadine Dorries going at each other every 5 minutes. Some of the most entertaining television I’ve watched in a while.
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I'm switching between them all. Andy Burnham is kicking off at everyone on Sky.
 
Anyway, on the results so far, it must be remembered that the North East seats always come first. Some very interesting stories from the 3 seats up there for sure, but go all the way down to Swindon, not a Labour safe seat, and there's a 8.2% gain for Labour and a crushing of the Tories. Reform not doing as well as up north. This is going to be an interesting night. We'll get a better picture when we get a broader geographic demographic of seats come in a couple of hours time.
 
I've always been a floating voter. I have no allegiance to any party. Over the years, I've put my X next to just about everyone... Except Labour. I will never forgive them for screwing over my entire generation by bringing in tuition fees and student loans, with no time to prepare for it (even though I'll admit the first few years of Blair did plenty of good things).
I didn't vote for them today and I never will...
....
That said, right now, given how much I want Sunak out.... Come on you re-eds!
 
Just looked at the exit polls for Barnsley where I live, Reform is forecast to win both seats here which I wasn't expecting. We'll see how accurate that ends up being...
 
Brad97 said:
Just looked at the exit polls for Barnsley where I live, Reform is forecast to win both seats here which I wasn't expecting. We'll see how accurate that ends up being...
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I work down the road and Reform has huge support. The only party that seems to focus on appealing to a section of the electorate and charm them rather than sniping as much. They feel let down by Labour and Starmer doesn't represent them.
 
Turnout looking poor as expected as well. Some Labour safe seats declared showing that they're not getting a rining endorsement. The closer seats are going to be interesting. I remember in 1997 the first Labour safe seats also did not declare massive swings towards Labour at a national level.
 
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