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2024 UK general election predictions and general discussion.

What is your predicted polling outcome for the 2024 UK general election

  • Conservative Majority

    Votes: 3 2.5%

  • Conversative Biggest Party in Hung Parliament

    Votes: 2 1.7%

  • Labour Majority

    Votes: 88 72.7%

  • Labour Biggest Party in Hung Parliament

    Votes: 28 23.1%

  • Other Result (Please specify in your post)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    121
I am very surprised by the reform vote of 25% so far (mainly from labour safe seats) I wonder if tory and labour voters have stayed home as they assumed the election was a foregone conclusion (hence low election turn out), but reform voters thought it was more important to get the small reform party voted in
 
Matt.GC said:
Turnout looking poor as expected as well. Some Labour safe seats declared showing that they're not getting a rining endorsement. The closer seats are going to be interesting. I remember in 1997 the first Labour safe seats also did not declare massive swings towards Labour at a national level.
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I think Swindon South is a more interesting indicator of what more marginal seats might turn out like; that had quite a considerable swing towards Labour.

I am stunned at Reform’s vote share at the moment; I know it likely won’t stay this way, but across the currently declared seats, they’re second to Labour in terms of vote share and beating the Conservatives!
 
With low turnout, there's definitely a high amount of dissatisfaction with both main parties and their voters are staying at home or going elsewhere. This seems like it could hit the SNP as well.

You can bet that Reform voters will not be staying at home, and they'll be a big protest towards the Lib Dems. Early yet, but based on what we've seen so far, I can now see why the Reform seat projection is so high.

This will be a good night for smaller parties, and debate about a more proportional voting system will likely ensue afterwards. Also worth mentioning that Wales has lost 8 of its seats as a country, yet Plaid may actually gain a seat. Greens are projecting to take Bristol Central with a 98% probability from Labour! They could nick another or two. The Lib Dems could actually end up being underestimated in South West seats.
 
Following my post about Reform winning Barnsley, Labour have held Barnsley North. The exit polls gave Reform a 99% chance of winning!

Think Reform have been overestimated in the exit poll, don't think they'll come close to 13 seats now.

Edit: Labour have held Barnsley South too. That's Reform down to 11 already.
 
Anderson has kept his seat.

However, Reform have failed to gain 2 seats out of the 13 that the Exit poll had suggested. Conservatives also slightly outperforming exit polls so far in terms of vote share.
 
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The exit poll may have overestimated Reform in terms of seats, but I think the sheer vote share, currently roughly 20%, is still quite astonishing for a startup third party.

I definitely think Labour should be wary of Reform; Reform will, rightly, feel massively vindicated by the sheer support they’ve received, and although they’re only a “minor party” at the moment, they definitely pose a threat with their sheer vote share.

In other news, Labour are cleaning up in some of those bellwether seats like Stroud and Nuneaton! They’re also overturning huge Tory majorities, such as in Cannock Chase; that seat had a 26% swing and overturned a 20,000 Tory majority!
EDIT: Reform have also seemingly failed to win Hartlepool (a forecast Reform win), but they have taken Ashfield, which the exit poll did not forecast them as taking.

To take a look at the exit poll’s predictions, here’s a useful link: https://news.sky.com/story/exit-pol...t-election-result-in-my-constituency-13163180
 
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Matt N said:
The exit poll may have overestimated Reform in terms of seats, but I think the sheer vote share, currently roughly 20%, is still quite astonishing for a startup third party.

I definitely think Labour should be wary of Reform; Reform will, rightly, feel massively vindicated by the sheer support they’ve received, and although they’re only a “minor party” at the moment, they definitely pose a threat with their sheer vote share.

In other news, Labour are cleaning up in some of those bellwether seats like Stroud and Nuneaton! They’re also overturning huge Tory majorities, such as in Cannock Chase; that seat had a 26% swing and overturned a 20,000 Tory majority!
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Indeed, as I said earlier, when it comes to the more interesting seats, the picture will be revealed. The safer Labour seats are not a good indicator of national voting intension so I wouldn't rely on the Reform 20% as a berometer, although it still is quite a story to see such successes from an upstart.

Whilst Reform have slightly outperformed so far in the red wall (so have the Conservatives), it'll be the safer Tory seats in the south that I'm looking at. That's when the Tory collapse will start to manifest.

Edit: Galloway has narrowly lost his seat.
 
Rochdale Labour hold, although not by very much. Quite interesting considering the muslim vote and labour's stance on Gaza.

Results really ramping up now; never stayed up for an entire election so does anyone know when most of the seats are declared? Concerning Reform, I still pray Nigel Farage is denied a seat in parliament again although with Anderson being elected I think my hopes are gone at this point 🤣
 
Glowstone_King said:
Results really ramping up now; never stayed up for an entire election so does anyone know when most of the seats are declared?
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About now! They start ramping up between 3 and 4, all over bar the shouting pretty much by 5. Not a lot happens between 10 and 2.

The third Reform seat out of the 13 predicted has not been gained by them. The other 2 held by Labour, this one held by the Tories.

Ed Davey reelected with a high turnout in Kingston and Surbiton.

First Portillo moment, Grant Shapps is gone as expected.
 
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Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, is gone in Welwyn Hatfield, having been knocked out by the Labour Party. Labour now has a majority of nearly 4,000 in that seat, and the swing was 14%.
 
It looks like Farage has won Clacton, making him successful on his 8th attempt at becoming an MP!

He has a majority of 8,405.
 
The BBC has now revised its forecast slightly due to us now having some real results.

Labour have gone down to 405, Conservatives are up to 154, and the Lib Dems are down slightly to 56. Most notably, Reform has been revised substantially down to 4, and the SNP has dropped even further to just 6 MPs.
 
"We're coming for Labour, be in no doubt about that" - Farage
Really interested (and worried ahaha) to see what happens between now and the next election concerning Reform UK; their vote share has been astonishing for such a small/new party that has seemingly risen out of no where.

Matt N said:
The BBC has now revised its forecast slightly due to us now having some real results.

Labour have gone down to 405, Conservatives are up to 154, and the Lib Dems are down slightly to 56. Most notably, Reform has been revised substantially down to 4, and the SNP has dropped even further to just 6 MPs.
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Conservatives at 154??? Maybe I'm being overly optimistic but from the results so far I feel like the original exit poll 130 ish mark is more reasonable.

Also Suella has stayed.....
 
Gillian Keegan, the Education secretary has gone.

Co-leader of the Greens Carla Denyer has beaten Labour's Thangham Debonair in Bristol Central.
 
Matt.GC said:
And now Labour's Johnathan Ashworth has lost to an independent! This election is crazy!
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I was in the room when this was announced and couldn’t quite believe it! I expect he would have been in the cabinet as well.

I feel for Ashworth, he’s always come across as a good MP who’s stood up for Leicester. I know little about the independent, but local issues very much at play. Leicester as a city has gone from 3 safe Labour seats to 1 Labour, 1 Tory and 1 Independent.
 
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