2024 UK general election predictions and general discussion.

[Matt.GC]

The Prime Minister has said that 2024 will be an election year, with November being the most likely. I'm not a betting man, but I have a pretty good track record of predicting GE results and I'm following this one closely.

I always do actually as I love General Elections. This one is an interesting one. The Conservatives have been in power for 14 years now, with that initial election in to power off the back of a hung parliament. We've seen Brexit, Covid, and 5 prime ministers in that time, 3 of these prime ministers since the last election alone, including the shortest serving one in history. Labour in that time have changed direction erratically and the 2019 GE polled one of their worst defeats ever, yet currently poll 20 points ahead and have done on and off for 2 years.

Somehow, 2019 seems like a long time ago. Both major parties have different leaders and different policy positions. As ever in politics, scandal has never been far away from either, but it's also cast shadows on the other parties that normally have an important roll in shaping GE results in such circumstances. The SNP have seen a massive fall from grace, previously unforeseen until recently, due to a number of scandles. Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey looked poised to put the damage that the coalition government did to the party's electoral fortunes behind him, but is facing pressure for his role as Business secretary during the Post Office Horizon scandal. The DUP have caused themselves, and unionism, great damage in refusing to restore the NI assembly, and Sinn Fein seem more powerful than ever in both NI and the republic. Meanwhile, Reform UK are openly gunning for the Tories on the right and have policy positions such as nationalising energy that are at odds with conservatiism, whilst the Greens are quietly confident in a few seats.

All this against the back drop of a war in Europe, as we recover from a pandemic, have left the EU, the public finances are in a bad state, economic growth and productivity have stagnated for years, AI and new technologist change our economy, public services are failing, local councils are going bankrupt, and a second Trump presidency seems like a real possibility.

What do you think will happen? This poll is changeable as we get closer to the election so you can change your vote as things develop. Let's see if Towers Street can predict the result.

Please note, this isn't about what you want the result to be, but what you think it will be and why?

Personally, I want a Labour Majority but think we'll get a labour minority result at this stage. I think the Tories are toast, but I can't see a positive enough swing to labour. Peter Mandleson and Neil Kinnock have both warned that opinion polls are based on Conservative unpopularity and not Labour popularity and that the swing being suggested is unprecedented. I also can't see Starmer not cocking this up. It seems like people have made their mind up about the conservatives already, which puts the focus on Labour, yet we see gaff after gaff. I think this could cause unpredictability. Will this see people holding their noses to vote Tory or Labour, stay at home, or push them towards other parties?

 

[Benzin]

Anyone but the Tories or Reform UK.

Probably have a lot more Silent Tories now which will throw a lot of the pre-polls out of whack. Let alone any other issues.

November would be an interesting time given the American elections as well.

Until FPTP is gone though voting will never truly matter. With the old tactical voting taking place.

 

[Matt N]

I actually haven’t voted, because I have to say that I’m really unsure.

On the one hand, I have never seen such a high level of discontent towards the incumbent government as there is now. Among pretty much everyone I’ve ever spoken to about politics, the prevailing view is that the current government is done for and needs to go at the next election. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are winning by-elections left, right and centre, including in seats that have pretty much been Tory since the day they were created. No one I’ve spoken to or read about seems to particularly like the Rwanda policy and the whole focus on immigrants that the Sunak ministry is currently pursuing. Overall, the present iteration of the Conservative Party seems to be one of an outgoing government that is very unpopular. They seem highly unpopular among moderate or “floating” voters, and even many traditional Tory voters are alienated by the current party.

On the other hand, I don’t think the Labour Party are exactly popular in isolation. My view is that a lot of their current poll popularity is more to do with Conservative hatred and them being the other “default” option than to do with Labour themselves having a particularly positive influence on people. I don’t think Starmer himself is viewed that positively as a candidate in isolation, and rightly or wrongly, the prevailing public view of him seems to be that he’s boring and has no strong policy ideas. Labour’s current USP seems to mostly be that they aren’t the Tories, and while that works well now, I’m not sure that that will necessarily cut through at election time.

Don’t get me wrong, Starmer absolutely could have surprises up his sleeves. He could pull the cat out of the bag closer to the election. If we think back to Jeremy Corbyn’s 2017 performance, it certainly wouldn’t be the first time that a Labour leader defied negative expectations and proved unexpectedly popular. However, if he continues on his current trajectory, I’m not sure that the Labour Party as a proposition is compelling enough in isolation to stimulate a landslide Labour majority.

A lot of comparisons are being made to 1997 at the moment, and I think that while there are similarities, there are also quite a few differences. The principal difference, though, is that from what I gather, the Labour Party and Blair himself were still incredibly popular in isolation, even if completely disregarding the Conservative government at that time. The popularity of Blair’s “New Labour” gave the British public a positive incentive to vote Blair. I’m not so sure that Starmer is presenting the same positive incentive.

With all of this in mind, my feeling is that come election time, people might feel disillusioned with politicians in general rather than with the Tories in isolation. You can even see this to a degree now; one common thread between the opinion polls seems to be a high percentage of “don‘t know” voters. These “don’t know” voters will shape the election; if they get to the ballot box, think “better the devil you know”, and vote Tory, then the Labour performance could be quite a bit worse than anticipated. Sunak could even pull off a similar feat to Major in 1992 and unexpectedly retain his majority.

So overall, I’m unsure. My feeling is that it depends more on the degree to which people hate the Tories than it does on any particular love of the alternative. If the Tories are giving people enough of a negative incentive to not vote for them (and based on current discontent, they could well be), then Labour could do very well. If, however, the negative incentive to not vote for the Tories isn’t strong enough to overcome the lack of a particular positive incentive to vote Labour, then Labour could do a fair amount worse than currently expected.

 

[Stuie]

Waiting patiently for our unelected Prime Minister to set the date for his demise.
See you later, Rishi. No one cares what you have to say.

I can't wait for the end of their culture wars - Tories blaming immigrants, trans people, striking staff etc for all of the problems that THEY created.

 

[shakey]

Only one result really, unless Starmer shoots himself in the foot with some bizarre revelations.

Definitely time for a change in government, but as I have said before, don't expect anything much to change in reality. We live in a very moderate country politically so a new party in power will make little difference to the vast majority of people.

 

[BarryZola]

I'm not sure what I'm doing yet. It will be either Labour or not bother at all for the first time ever in a GE. The Tories need to go as they have been the worst government I've seen in this country in my time alive (especially the longer it's continued in power). That's where the possible Labour vote comes in. Saying that, I'm still yet to hear of any policies from them that excite me or think that they will be able to radically change the direction that the country is heading in.

 

[Matt.GC]

I actually haven’t voted, because I have to say that I’m really unsure.

On the one hand, I have never seen such a high level of discontent towards the incumbent government as there is now. Among pretty much everyone I’ve ever spoken to about politics, the prevailing view is that the current government is done for and needs to go at the next election. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are winning by-elections left, right and centre, including in seats that have pretty much been Tory since the day they were created. No one I’ve spoken to or read about seems to particularly like the Rwanda policy and the whole focus on immigrants that the Sunak ministry is currently pursuing. Overall, the present iteration of the Conservative Party seems to be one of an outgoing government that is very unpopular. They seem highly unpopular among moderate or “floating” voters, and even many traditional Tory voters are alienated by the current party.

On the other hand, I don’t think the Labour Party are exactly popular in isolation. My view is that a lot of their current poll popularity is more to do with Conservative hatred and them being the other “default” option than to do with Labour themselves having a particularly positive influence on people. I don’t think Starmer himself is viewed that positively as a candidate in isolation, and rightly or wrongly, the prevailing public view of him seems to be that he’s boring and has no strong policy ideas. Labour’s current USP seems to mostly be that they aren’t the Tories, and while that works well now, I’m not sure that that will necessarily cut through at election time.

Don’t get me wrong, Starmer absolutely could have surprises up his sleeves. He could pull the cat out of the bag closer to the election. If we think back to Jeremy Corbyn’s 2017 performance, it certainly wouldn’t be the first time that a Labour leader defied negative expectations and proved unexpectedly popular. However, if he continues on his current trajectory, I’m not sure that the Labour Party as a proposition is compelling enough in isolation to stimulate a landslide Labour majority.

A lot of comparisons are being made to 1997 at the moment, and I think that while there are similarities, there are also quite a few differences. The principal difference, though, is that from what I gather, the Labour Party and Blair himself were still incredibly popular in isolation, even if completely disregarding the Conservative government at that time. The popularity of Blair’s “New Labour” gave the British public a positive incentive to vote Blair. I’m not so sure that Starmer is presenting the same positive incentive.

With all of this in mind, my feeling is that come election time, people might feel disillusioned with politicians in general rather than with the Tories in isolation. You can even see this to a degree now; one common thread between the opinion polls seems to be a high percentage of “don‘t know” voters. These “don’t know” voters will shape the election; if they get to the ballot box, think “better the devil you know”, and vote Tory, then the Labour performance could be quite a bit worse than anticipated. Sunak could even pull off a similar feat to Major in 1992 and unexpectedly retain his majority.

So overall, I’m unsure. My feeling is that it depends more on the degree to which people hate the Tories than it does on any particular love of the alternative. If the Tories are giving people enough of a negative incentive to not vote for them (and based on current discontent, they could well be), then Labour could do very well. If, however, the negative incentive to not vote for the Tories isn’t strong enough to overcome the lack of a particular positive incentive to vote Labour, then Labour could do a fair amount worse than currently expected.

I agree with most of this and I think it's a pretty well thought out analysis of where we are at. Join this up together and it's pretty similar to what John Curtis, Peter Mandleson, Lord Ashcroft, George Osbourne, Neil Kinnock, Rory Stewart, Alistair Campbell, and John Major have been saying in recent months to various degrees. One thing I will disagree with though is that I think a Tory majority is almost impossible now. Although I think it's highly unlikely, I wouldn't rule out a hung parliament with them as the biggest party however, as you correctly state that it's the "don't knows" that will swing this election. This may become far more clear as we get closer as we're still a long way out.

Any comparisons to 1997 from media types are extremely foolish I feel. They seem to simply come from the binary stance of looking at the poll leads and comparing the two, but I think it's more comparable to 2010 in that you have an unpopular government and main opposition, but this time on steroids. I think the destiny of either main party is in the hands of the other parties as people look for ways to put an X somewhere. Where will they go? Will they stay at home?

I think the problem stems from the fact that there isn't a positive message to give now that Labour's one bold policy is now in the bin. The reality of the situation does not allow many realistic bold policies of positive change. It's more of a case of wanting something that isn't the reality. It's hard for either main party to make grandstanding claims when the economic situation is so dire, and has been pretty much since 2008, only now the country is painted into the corner of having terrible public finances to contend with. What can anyone other than a fringe party promise? People understandably want answers and resolutions, but they won't come quickly.

But if you had to put a tenner on it, which would it be? I can see this being very unpredictable and my prediction changing as events unfold.

 

[Matt N]

But if you had to put a tenner on it, which would it be? I can see this being very unpredictable and my prediction changing as events unfold.

I think Labour are very likely to end up being the largest party in some capacity. But I’m uncertain on whether we’ll end up having a proper Labour majority or whether it’ll be more of a 2010-style situation, where Labour are the largest party in a hung parliament and end up teaming up with a smaller party of your choice (such as the Lib Dems or the SNP) to form a coalition government or confidence and supply deal.

If I had to pick, I’d probably go for a Labour majority. The hatred of the current Tory government seems pretty strong, and possibly even strong enough to provide the British public with a strong negative incentive to get the Tories out. Starmer and the current iteration of the Labour Party are making positive noises in some regards that could well translate to them becoming a more compelling proposition at election time, even if they aren’t really cutting through at the moment.

However, I’m not certain of that prediction by any stretch. I don’t think that a hypothetical Labour majority would be nearly as high as the polls are predicting unless Starmer has some remarkable surprises up his sleeves that he’s keeping concealed until election time. I also don’t think a Labour majority or even Labour being the largest party are quite the dead certs that some make out they are.

 

[Benzin]

Saying that, I'm still yet to hear of any policies from them that excite me or think that they will be able to radically change the direction that the country is heading in.

Can't do much until they can announce a manifesto officially. Zero point announcing policies as the opposition until they can. Even if there's this weird notion that they should have a fully costed manifesto plan right now.

Reverting back the green pledge though is the prime example of short term termism across the country. Plus Starmer being exceedingly centrist and not popular with the more left-wing sub-factions of Labour. Though his positioning is somewhat forced by the lurch right currently.



I'd imagine there will be a lot of protest votes against the Tories going to Reform UK who are positioning themselves as the "true" right-wing party. Which is ominous given the recent spate of nonsense from our current mob.

And the left will have its usual divide because Labour can't stand not being the ones in charge.

Besides, the media narrative of "aren't Labour super anti-semetic" is already on the road. Because calling out the Israeli government's "alleged" genocidal actions are deemed as such. And the rest of the culture wars (Lol Kier doesn't know what a woman is) is exactly the sort of nonsense that turns floating voters away because they're scared of trans people as the media told them about the ones hiding in toilets like a Japanese folklore ghost.

Besides, as things won't be fixed in 5 years we'll have the Tories sitting on the sidelines banging on about how things would be better under them and they'll be back in power next election. Because the world is stupid.

 

[Thameslink Rail]

I wonder how many Reform supporters will actually vote for them knowing that doing so increases the chances of Labour winning?

 

[shakey]

The election across the pond between two old men will probably have more of a baring on peoples lives, depending on the result, than the one in this country.

 

[Matt.GC]

I wonder how many Reform supporters will actually vote for them knowing that doing so increases the chances of Labour winning?

Richard Tice and Nigel Farage have approached the subject being quite frank, and both are coming from the angle that they think a Labour Majority is a certainty anyway, so their policy is to take the Tories down unless they capitulate to their views. They basically see a gap on the right (I think they're correct), and with their new media vehicles in the form of the Telegraph and GBnews beating the drums, the Tories are in their sites and not Labour. That's next year's battle the way they see it.

Although Reform are a gateway drug to the hard class A stuff of the far right, I think it's foolish to only look at them through the lens of old fashioned left-right spectrums like I suspect Sunak does. Similar with other phenomena like Trump. Reform are not conservative. It's the capitulation to the Brexit party that saw them stand aside for Johnson.

Like every Farage project, there's an inflated sense of self about them. I don't think they're as popular as they think they are, or as their polling suggests, and are temporarily riding on the waves of Tory woes and sections of people who feel abandoned by Labour. But I don't think that matters. If the Tories chase them on the right, they can claim they were the ones who did it, just like how Farage claims credit for Brexit and Johnsons victory. If they push the Tories more towards the centre, it could cause Starmer some damage and pave the way for them to make some inroads. Either way, they have a sound strategy. As populists, they create culture wars and prey on the fears they create in people's minds, and so are adaptable to be able to take the fight to whoever they choose.

 

[Tom]

Has anyone reeled out the "death penalty for paedophiles" policy yet or are we still too far away from the election?

 

[Matt.GC]

Although by-elections are never representative of national polling results, there are some considerations from the Wellingborough and Kingswood results.

BBC News - John Curtice: By-election results leave Tories with mountain to climb

John Curtice: By-election results leave Tories with mountain to climb

Polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice says the party will be worried by the scale of its defeats by Labour.

www.bbc.co.uk

Particularly bad night for the Tories in Wellingborough, although that could be attributed to Peter Bone being booted out under sexual misconduct allegations. In Kingswood, which is will form part of the new Bristol East constituency at the GE, the local Tory MP stepped down in protest at his own government's environmental policies, there was still a Tory drubbing, within expectations of slightly towards the lower end. Wellingborough was the second biggest swing from Tory to Labour since the second world war.

But there is some consistency showing however from all by-elections held since Truss. The scale of Tory defeats have all been fairly accurately predicted beforehand, although the SNP took a bit more of a pasting in Rutherglen than expected. The swing to Labour has been similar. Reform have performed well and seem to be mopping up votes as the 'other' party in English polls, squeezing the Lib Dems out in some areas.

I know Kingswood quite well as I grew up down the road from there, it was traditionally a Tory and Labour 2-way like most of the outer fringes of Bristol, with the more urban areas of the city itself favouring Labour more, so with the boundary changes in the city merging the more urban areas with those on the edges, it'll be interesting to see how the greater metropolitan area, which used to be Tory and Lib Dem marginals in the 90's and 2000's, will fayre in the GE. The boundary changes are putting more Lib Dem inclined suburban voters into Tory countryside safe seats. Seats like Reece-Moggs North East Somerset and Liam Fox's North Somerset to the east and south of the city, with the possibility of the suburban seats of Filton and Bradley Stoke, and Thornbury and Yate returning Lib Dem MP's to the north, and Weston-super-Mare returning a Labour MP to the west.

Before anyone gets on their D:Ream Things can only get better CD, although there are some trends, I think these by-elections are still showing a great degree of protest, turnout is low and I think this will follow into the GE, and there is a sign of Reform growing significantly in prominence at the expense of Labour. It's still very much staunchly anti-Tory rather than pro labour. Tiverton and Honiton, and Somerton and Frome also show that.

 

[BigT]

Thing is there is little real difference between the two main parties, what this country needs is REAL change.
Where has all of the money gone in the last 30 years? Where is our sovereign wealth fund? Where is our teachers pension fund? Where is our world class infrastructure? Why does someone earning 100k a year pay a 35% tax rate and someone earning £2.2m pay 23%?
A huge change needs to happen, easy to blame the Tories but Labour are equally to blame and have no solutions except a punitive tax raid on Mr 100k again which will end up costing as much as it gains.
No we really have the worst bunch of hopeless inept incompetent politicians this country has ever had from every single party.
None of them deserve a vote, they couldn’t run a bath let alone a country.

 

[AstroDan]

Thing is there is little real difference between the two main parties, what this country needs is REAL change.
Where has all of the money gone in the last 30 years? Where is our sovereign wealth fund? Where is our teachers pension fund? Where is our world class infrastructure? Why does someone earning 100k a year pay a 35% tax rate and someone earning £2.2m pay 23%?
A huge change needs to happen, easy to blame the Tories but Labour are equally to blame and have no solutions except a punitive tax raid on Mr 100k again which will end up costing as much as it gains.
No we really have the worst bunch of hopeless inept incompetent politicians this country has ever had from every single party.
None of them deserve a vote, they couldn’t run a bath let alone a country.

Whilst I agree Labour share some of the blame it is plainly clear that the Tories have done more damage to society through the 80s,, 90s and then since 2010.

They've had far more time in power.

 

[Martin]

Not sure whether it's funnier to think a man whose pension has its own law is really going to go after people on 4x minimum wage +, or that I should care if he did.

I can't see even Starmer bottling the win at this point. I'm involved in lobbying and pushing for a particular bill that's on the table at the moment, and the mood coming out of Westminster is most of them expect the government to be changing at the next election.

 

[Dave]

Thing is there is little real difference between the two main parties, what this country needs is REAL change.
Where has all of the money gone in the last 30 years? Where is our sovereign wealth fund? Where is our teachers pension fund? Where is our world class infrastructure? Why does someone earning 100k a year pay a 35% tax rate and someone earning £2.2m pay 23%?
A huge change needs to happen, easy to blame the Tories but Labour are equally to blame and have no solutions except a punitive tax raid on Mr 100k again which will end up costing as much as it gains.
No we really have the worst bunch of hopeless inept incompetent politicians this country has ever had from every single party.
None of them deserve a vote, they couldn’t run a bath let alone a country.

The tax rates were more (not perfectly) balanced when Labour were in power, there were infrastructure projects aplenty (even HS2 was a Labour plan). NHS waits were far below the current and with the exception of cancer were comparable or better than other health systems. We also had better education metrics, food banks didn’t exist and they had even pulled the country out of a global financial crisis and we were recovering rapidly, a recovery that slowed when the Tory’s came to power (something the media ignore when they blame Labour for an international crisis).

They did however depend too much on PFI’s, Blair was too fascinated with joining America in war (though he argues that was to try and temper American plans but I’m not convinced).

Labour were not and are not perfect but the UK population has never liked dramatic change which is why they generally reject extreme changes to politics such as Reform (who get far more media time than their support suggests) and Corbyns Labour. If you want change in this country then it’s always going to be incremental.

 

[BigT]

Thing is we aren’t really discussing about who’s done what that’s for the other political thread, it’s about what’s promised for the next parliament and beyond, what we would like to see and who you trust to deliver it.
It’s a hard choice seeing as they are all more or less promising the same and are all compulsive liars.
The only party different is Reform and they can be ignored anyway, they are a protest vote for polls and won’t win a single seat.

 

[Alsty]

Who will be the next party?

According to OddsChecker it's most likely to be Labour at 1/8, followed a long way behind by the Conservatives 7/1. Odds for reform are 66/1.

If the question is, will it be a majority government or no overall majority, the odds of a majority Labour are 11/50, followed by no overall majority 5/1, then Conservative majority at 14/1.

Be interesting to see how they change as we get closer to the election.