Discussion in 'Corner Coffee' started by Jb85, 14th Feb 2020.
In my mind, the solution's simple. March-style lockdown NOW.
Seems like, as usual, the messages are somewhat misleading.
In one line:
"The “fundamental advice for everyone is to stay at home” and it will become law, she says, like it was during the lockdown in March. People will only be allowed to leave for essential reasons"
...and then in the next...
"She says from tomorrow, a maximum of two people from two households will be allowed to meet outdoors..."
...ok, so not total lockdown then. So please, calm down and stop with the sensationalism - again, really does so much damage to those who worry and have anxiety.
I think we need to step away from referring to anything as lockdown unless those restrictions meet the baseline of what we first considered it to be which is what happened in March. Nevertheless, the changes that Scotland have announced are the strictest since March. A summary of what was announced by Nicola Sturgeon to take effect at midnight tonight:
Stay at home message is now enforced by law. You may leave home only for essential purposes such as shopping or for work
Only two people from two households can meet outdoors (it was previously rule of 6 still in Scotland)
Places of worship close
Work away from home only if it is impossible to carry out your job there
The definition of essential retail will also be tightened. It was already tighter in mainland Scotland than England (garden centres were closed for example). But there's no info on this tightened definition yet.
And finally, the main change is that all schools and nurseries are to remain closed until at least February 1st. This is for all pupils with the exception of children of key workers and vulnerable pupils. This will be reviewed in mid January.
In further news as per BBC just now, Boris Johnson is to make a televised address tonight at 8pm. The Commons are also being recalled for Wednesday (The Lords didn't have an extended recess).
My assumption would now be very similar restrictions to Scotland from midnight tonight, with debate and votes on it come Wednesday when the Commons reconvenes.
It'll almost certainly be a march-style lockdown (all non-essential businesses shut, schools shut, and everyone told to stay at home) and could last for months.
I doubt they'll pay everyone to stop going to work again like last time, which basically makes it not as effective as people will still be out and about on the roads everywhere so you won't be able to tell who's travelling to and from work or just out on their jollies.
Hopefully dentists will remain open this time though!!
That's the problem. Things are very serious at the moment. Arguably they are more serious than they were last April due to the new strain being more contagious... except this time there are less options available for us to control it. People are fatigued with lockdowns, the government can't afford for everybody to be furloughed again and so any restrictions will likely be less than they were in Lockdown v1.
I think closing schools is realistically the only tool left in the box. Let's hope that's enough to bring the R under 1.
And away from those implications, there's very little trust left in the government at the moment. At the start of the weekend, they were stating schools were safe, yet closed them in a few select London boroughs, despite infection levels being higher in other areas. They then switched to the whole of London, yet left others in tier 4 areas open. Again they exclaimed schools are safe.
Now, mere hours later, they are set to close schools. That is not the reassurance parents and teachers, when many across the country have sent their children into school today after the reassurances given by the government. That one single day means children have been mixing, and increasing the risk spreading the virus amongst over 30 households in just one single class. The jump in cases today is as expected, the pressure the NHS has been under has been plain to see for days now, there have been no surprises. So why was this decision not made earlier in the weekend to allow teachers, parents and their employers to prepare?!
This along with all the other delays recently means fewer people will adhere to restrictions, and now they'll likely be in place for longer as a result.
Certainly feels like the severity of the situation has reached new heights, with trust and goodwill through the floor.
What a mess.
If Boris announces school closures tonight, do we think that they will resort to the contingency framework that was previously specified by Gavin Williamson, where exam year pupils are still allowed to go in from 11th January? Or do we expect him to tighten this to be more equivalent to what it was in March, with only key worker children and vulnerable children allowed to attend?
Gut feeling would be they would revert to March, as having two whole years in schools where prevalence is so high would be difficult to justify, especially when the situation is already far worse than it was in March in many areas. They'd obviously then need to make suitable decisions on exams in the very near future. But that's pure speculation on my part rather than anything concrete.
The covid testing handbook for schools and colleges has been released.
Sent from my SM-A217F using Tapatalk
Might be too late unfortunately...
Page 1 - Send em home.
In all seriousness, this is still helpful as let's not forget testing will still be required for those who will still attend whilst schools are closed.
The school that my nieces attend down south had an inset day today and were due to go back tomorrow. An email was sent out this afternoon that as of tomorrow, schools will only be open for key worker children and any who are identified as vulnerable, so as it was during the original actual lockdown.
I think lockdown is coming at the right time; cases are steeply rising in many areas. See what the rate is in your area with this useful tool from the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
As an example, my area, the Forest of Dean, now has a rate of 363 per 100,000, with 315 cases. For some idea, this is up by 100 cases on last week, so nearly 50%.
On the more positive side, some of the hotspots in Tier 4 (e.g. Epping Forest, Basildon, Swale) seem to be going down still, so Tier 4 seems to be working in those areas.
We are still well below average down here in Devon although Cornwall has shot up in the past week. My thoughts on how to lower the infections:
1. All non essential shops to close to customers inside the store and resort to contactless click and collect at the store entrance where possible so businesses can still trade albeit limited
2. Stop all international and domestic flights
3. Stop people travelling between counties. People should stay in their own areas and not travel from London to Cornwall for example
4. Close the schools. Nearly everyone has access to internet now, why can’t classes be done online?
5. Stop the sale of inadequate masks and ensure all masks should be a minimum standard (3 layer)
6. Significantly increase penalties for those breaking the rules
I’m sure more will come to mind!
Well it looks like schools will close, but this is a somewhat naive post. Not every kid has access to technology, especially those from poorer backgrounds. Also those homes that do have technology probably only have one laptop or tablet which isn't enough if there's a parent working at home plus a kid trying to learn, nervermind if there's more than one kid competing for it as well. Also younger kids need supervision and guidance which is a problem for parents trying to work at home. Then there's the parents who can't work from home...
It is a necessity but don't pretend it's simple.
On a general note, it looks like these measures will last until at least 15th February. The prime minister has hinted that the government would like to reopen schools after February half term, and he has also suggested that further easing could take place in late February to early March if all goes well with the vaccine rollout.
Separate names with a comma.