Coronavirus

[Matt N]

According to a government source, the country will enter a “halfway house” lockdown for 3 months after Easter, where pubs and restaurants will be open, but social distancing measures will remain in place (to be honest, I’m not really sure I’d call that a lockdown; it seems broadly equivalent to what we had last summer to me): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...ree-month-halfway-house-lockdown-easter-over/

The hope is apparently for all measures to be eased in July once everybody over 50 has received their second dose.

 

[Benzin]

Are those vulnerable under 50s above the over 50s in priority these days? Otherwise there's still a big problem in terms of easing the measures.

 

[Rob]

Are those vulnerable under 50s above the over 50s in priority these days? Otherwise there's still a big problem in terms of easing the measures.

Yes. Clinically extremely vulnerable people are priority 4 along with the over 70s. And then those with underlying health conditions which put them at higher risk of serious disease are priority 6, after the over 65s.

 

[Danza91]

All this talk of 'could' 'might' 'unlikely' is just draining and really not good for mental health. Three people I am friends with found themselves really struggling last week and I myself took a bit of a nosedive Wednesday-Thursday.

We need a plan and way out. I get it, the Government can't say when things will be low enough, but what actually is low enough? Cases? Hospitalisations? Deaths? Numbers vaccinated (high enough in this case)? This cannot go on like it is.

Once those top four groups are vaccinated there is going to be more and more pressure on the Government to start relaxing things, or at the very least, have a clear plan so we can get on with our lives. Existing is not living.

 

[Islander]

All this talk of 'could' 'might' 'unlikely' is just draining and really not good for mental health. Three people I am friends with found themselves really struggling last week and I myself took a bit of a nosedive Wednesday-Thursday.

We need a plan and way out. I get it, the Government can't say when things will be low enough, but what actually is low enough? Cases? Hospitalisations? Deaths? Numbers vaccinated? This cannot go on like it is.

Once those top four groups are vaccinated there is going to be more and more pressure on the Government to start relaxing things, or at the very least, have a clear plan so we can get on with our lives. Existing is not living.

100% agree. I've struggled this last week or so, unlike the first half of January.

Yes we went into lockdown as soon as the new year started, but there was still a positive feel in the air - lockdown was necessary given hospital figures, but vaccination was starting, rollout was going well, and there was a real feeling that in a few weeks time (by a few, I mean maybe 10-15), things could start slowly returning to normal, there genuinely felt like there was a light at the end of the tunnel.

Over the past week, the media have taken a really odd angle on things - vaccination is still going great, there are reports that we MIGHT have everyone vaccinated as early as summer. The lockdown is undeniably working, infections are down, and it's likely hospital admissions and death rates will follow. AND YET, over this last week or so, there's suddenly far more concentration on schools potentially remaining closed until after Easter, restrictions remaining in place for much longer than originally suggested etc. etc.

It's so horribly draining. I try not to pin too much hope on anything - learnt my lesson back 3-4 weeks into lockdown one lol - but we need some form of hope, and it feels like the media are doing their damnedest to quash it.

 

[Alsty]

The media have been like that the whole way through though... when we were in lockdown they were all asking about when restrictions would be lifted, there were newspapers talking about independence day etc, then as soon as restrictions are lifted they are back with the questions about whether we need to go back into lockdown and that the government should be restricting us quicker, sooner, tougher.

It's the same with the schools... they talk about how kids should be at school, then when they're at school we get articles and questions about how kids are spreading it and they should be closed. It really does feel like the media in this country just like to stir the pot.

It isn't helped by an impotent government though which creates an environment for this "gossip" to thrive. Since day one they've lacked transparency and that continues now. They should level with the public about what their criteria are for the restrictions, what their plans are. I think the government are afraid of making a plan then having to change it but there's no shame in that. If the science or modelling changes then people would expect the plan to change too.

 

[Rob]

I agree that some sort of plan is needed, and you would like to think that they do have one somewhere but they've just not published it. I guess one of the reasons they don't want it out there yet is that it could cause more people to stretch the current rules. Current case levels and hospital admissions are still very high, and it will not take much right now for things to start heading in the wrong direction again. In my local authority area for example, case numbers have been pretty level for the past 2 or 3 weeks with only a very small decline, so there really is no room for people to ease up at all.

The media in this country does not help things at all. It's all about what generates clicks online these days.

I guess another reason for uncertainty at the moment is that we do not know whether or not any of the vaccines have any impact on transmission. You would think they do to some degree at least, but at this stage it is safer from a public health standpoint to assume that they do not. Which is why those who have been vaccinated are being urged to follow all of the same rules.

 

[Craig]

Completely agree on the media front. For example there's been huge headlines on the websites of some tabloid newspapers such as "What you can and can't do after you've had your jab?" almost suggesting that people can do something different. The article itself poses many questions such as can I go see my gran. The answer they put being "Yes, says Dr Tildesley, once the ban on household mixing is lifted, but you will still need to take precautions".

Clearly just the clikbait headline itself is bad enough planting the seed in people's minds that there are changes once they've had the vaccine, which obviously isn't the case. Then to answer a question with "yes" and then go to explain that there's a ban on household mixing merely serves to encourage people to break the rules as they believe it is safe, it's just. a "stupid rule" preventing them from doing so. We know how selective people can be in what they read, clickbait should take a back seat when it comes to public health and the message should be 100% clear from the outset.

Many areas of the press have a lot to answer for in the way they've reported to the pandemic, from this through to publicising anti lockdown and covid denying comment sections, even when deaths and cases were rising rapidly.

 

[Alsty]

I guess another reason for uncertainty at the moment is that we do not know whether or not any of the vaccines have any impact on transmission. You would think they do to some degree at least, but at this stage it is safer from a public health standpoint to assume that they do not.

How the vaccine affects transmissibility is an interesting question.

As a thought experiment, imagine it does not affect transmissibility at all. What would happen if the case rates were high (e.g. over 50k per day) but the death rate was in single figures? Would there be any need to apply any restrictions or would we be happy for the virus to rip through society knowing it won't overwhelm the health services?

 

[Rob]

How the vaccine affects transmissibility is an interesting question.

As a thought experiment, imagine it does not affect transmissibility at all. What would happen if the case rates were high (e.g. over 50k per day) but the death rate was in single figures? Would there be any need to apply any restrictions or would we be happy for the virus to rip through society knowing it won't overwhelm the health services?

It's an interesting one, and I imagine that it would come down to exactly what the vaccines do and do not prevent. If they prevent or cut down on the numbers of people suffering from the various forms of long-Covid then great. If not though then we risk having a population full of people are left unable to live and work as normal for significant periods of time, and an increase in other health conditions as a result of other long-Covid complications.

Hopefully it's not something that we'll have to worry about and the vaccine will reduce deaths, disease severity, long-Covid and transmission!

 

[Craig]

One thing is really confusing me at the moment is this sudden push to vaccinate just teachers as though we can suddenly get schools to return and it'll be all fine. Yes that's great to have teachers vaccinated, however we're forgetting the whole reason we're in this mess is because the new strain started to spread among school aged children so much, therefore with a class of 30 kids you're still essentially mixing 30 households while the infection rate is so high. I've no idea why this isn't being pointed out in a lot of news reports.

 

[Matt N]

Would some sort of regional approach be a possibility? Some areas are falling very quickly; my own area fell by 40% in the last week, for example. Other areas have fallen more slowly, however. There’s a definite regional disparity in that regard, and also with vaccinations; places like the North are really ahead, whereas London is quite far behind.

Would it be theoretically possible to keep the restrictions in some areas, but ease them slightly in others?

 

[Craig]

Would some sort of regional approach be a possibility? Some areas are falling very quickly; my own area fell by 40% in the last week, for example. Other areas have fallen more slowly, however. There’s a definite regional disparity in that regard, and also with vaccinations; places like the North are really ahead, whereas London is quite far behind.

Would it be theoretically possible to keep the restrictions in some areas, but ease them slightly in others?

It's already been confirmed by the government that the release from lockdown would see us reverting to the tier system, so yes we'll likely see some regional variations when we're eventually out of it.

 

[MattyH]

It's not been helped by a certain main stream news outlet going with the headline "Lockdown till September" Which is full of hyperbole and gaff as normal from the tabloids. Even googling the article brings up the quote "Boris is facing backlash if he does not relax the restrictions by March..." It's just the fact that fear sells papers and generates clicks.

 

[Matt N]

In very promising news, it is thought that Moderna’s vaccine works against the new variants, according to lab trials conducted: https://apple.news/An5rVd_XEQ1y-VChsqha2uA

This came from BBC News.

Doesn’t the UK have something like 10 million doses of Moderna’s vaccine?

 

[pluk]

One thing is really confusing me at the moment is this sudden push to vaccinate just teachers as though we can suddenly get schools to return and it'll be all fine. Yes that's great to have teachers vaccinated, however we're forgetting the whole reason we're in this mess is because the new strain started to spread among school aged children so much, therefore with a class of 30 kids you're still essentially mixing 30 households while the infection rate is so high. I've no idea why this isn't being pointed out in a lot of news reports.

The push to vaccinate teachers and other frontline service givers is to protect those people who are coming into contact with the public, for their own safety and to maintain the ability for that service to be delivered, not to allow those professions to return to normal.

There are so many variables and unknowns to this, it would be entirely wrong for the government to announce cut off points and any in depth lockdown exit strategy or timeframe. That would create confusion between current and future rules and give people false hope and expectations which could be a lot more damaging to them in the longer term.

 

[Craig]

The push to vaccinate teachers and other frontline service givers is to protect those people who are coming into contact with the public, for their own safety and to maintain the ability for that service to be delivered, not to allow those professions to return to normal.

I'm not saying I'm against or do not understand frontline workers or teachers being vaccinated, completely the opposite! As I said that's great and I completely understand the reasoning for it. What I am concerned about on the schools front though is just mentioning teachers being vaccinated and many seeming to believe that will bring a return to normal for education. You only have to look at many comments on social media, and some press reports seemingly neglect to mention that fact. It's quickly been turned into a story of "the unions want to vaccinate teachers and then everyone's kids can go back".

It was clear from the issues in the south east with the new variant that schools were a major factor in how fast that strain got out into the community. So even though teachers will be vaccinated, I'm concerned there'll be some sort of speedy return forced onto schools and we'll end up in the same situation as we had in November/December with kids taking it back to households and it spreading from there again.

 

[Dave]

It's an interesting one, and I imagine that it would come down to exactly what the vaccines do and do not prevent. If they prevent or cut down on the numbers of people suffering from the various forms of long-Covid then great. If not though then we risk having a population full of people are left unable to live and work as normal for significant periods of time, and an increase in other health conditions as a result of other long-Covid complications.

Hopefully it's not something that we'll have to worry about and the vaccine will reduce deaths, disease severity, long-Covid and transmission!

My suspicion is if we get deaths to a similar number as the flu (8,000-20,000 per year) then the restrictions become hard to justify.

It’s not likely vaccination will cause sterile immunity (very few vaccines do), I suspect they will reduce long Covid though as that’s likely an autoimmune issue and post viral fatigue is seen in other infections (including the flu).

We have always had a society that accepts a certain amount of death and harm, I would be surprised if we didn’t do the same with Covid.

 

[pluk]

What I am concerned about on the schools front though is just mentioning teachers being vaccinated and many seeming to believe that will bring a return to normal for education. You only have to look at many comments on social media, and some press reports seemingly neglect to mention that fact. It's quickly been turned into a story of "the unions want to vaccinate teachers and then everyone's kids can go back".

Which is a great example of why the bemoaned lack if information in a lot if areas is a very good thing. There will be contingency plan upon contingency plan at government level and service provider level for all sorts of eventuality. Should me or you know those things? No, absolutely not, because in the minds of much of the public (fed by an atrocious press) a plan becomes an expectation and an unused plan with hindsight becomes a waste when the reality no plan would be negligence.

A little information and a lack of intelligence is a dangerous thing.

 

[Islander]

Which is a great example of why the bemoaned lack if information in a lot if areas is a very good thing. There will be contingency plan upon contingency plan at government level and service provider level for all sorts of eventuality. Should me or you know those things? No, absolutely not, because in the minds of much of the public (fed by an atrocious press) a plan becomes an expectation and an unused plan with hindsight becomes a waste when the reality no plan would be negligence.

A little information and a lack of intelligence is a dangerous thing.

I completely get this, and of course 'information control' is vitally important, for the reasons you give. I do however feel that right now we are too far at the other extreme.