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Coronavirus

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The updated BBC report now confirms that as well as the Novavax vaccine being 89.3% efficient in the UK trial, indicating good protection against the variant first found in Kent, it was 60% efficient in the South Africa trial where the variant of concern is widely circulating.

So that indicates a roughly 30% reduction in protection against the SA variant, which isn't too bad at all. And the fact it works in 60% of cases suggests that even if it does not prevent infection in the other 40% it would hopefully reduce severity.
 
So with the Pfizer vaccine still working very effectively against the South Africa variant and the Novavax vaccine working moderately less effectively against the South Africa variant, that would imply that we still haven’t got a variant that our vaccines can’t tackle to some degree, which is promising!
 
More vaccine news!

A single dose vaccine developed by Janssen has been shown to be 66% effective overall and prevents 85% of severe cases. The vaccine was 57% effective in South Africa.

The UK has pre-ordered 30 million doses of this vaccine which works in a similar way to the Oxford vaccine. And investigations are underway to see if giving 2 doses provides better or longer lasting protection.
 
Even though Janssen’s efficacy reading may seem disappointing compared to some vaccines like Novavax, Pfizer and Moderna, it’s worth noting that even as late as October-November, many scientists were convinced that we may never have had a vaccine, and that if we did, the first vaccines would have only around 50-60% efficacy at best.

The fact that we now have at least 5 vaccines (there may well be more out there that I don’t know of) with really promising efficacy results (even Janssen and AstraZeneca’s efficacy results of 66% and 70% respectively topped the initial predictions of scientists) for a disease that was only discovered just over a year ago is a huge achievement, in my opinion!

With the Janssen vaccine, it is also worth noting that efficacy in the USA arm of the trial (where the South African variant is barely prevalent at all, so a more comparable situation to the UK and other Western countries) was 72%, with the efficacy of the South African arm likely being what dragged down the overall efficacy.
 
What are we going to do with all these vaccines though? I read somewhere we now have over 300m doses in order between all the different companies for a population of around 50million or so adults. That’s if they all go for a vaccine which around a third won’t.

Hopefully we will provide poorer countries with the excess doses perhaps?
 
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GaryH said:
What are we going to do with all these vaccines though? I read somewhere we now have over 300m doses in order between all the different companies for a population of around 50million or so adults. That’s if they all go for a vaccine which around a third won’t.

Hopefully we will provide poorer countries with the excess doses perhaps?
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I believe that they are hedging their supply just in-case there is a break in the chain supply with one of the vaccines, plus less chance that the EU can try and put a spanner in the works with our roll out.

Don't forget that someone turns 16 each day plus we might also need them for an annual vaccination program.
 
Yup we very much hedged our bets with early orders across a large number of vaccines before they had even been fully trialled, so if one or more didn't work or didn't come through early enough we had coverage through others. It's paid off so far, but it has to be remember that some of the vaccines we've ordered are still in trials and may not even successfully get through them, others may not even arrive for a considerable amount of time.

Michael Gove spoke to Times Radio yesterday hinting at help for other countries saying “I wont get into details of supply. It’s always good for us to talk... to learn what we can do to help one another”. Based on us already contributing to the Covax fund for access to the vaccine for low-middle income countries, I would imagine we would be making further contributions where possible.
 
GaryH said:
What are we going to do with all these vaccines though? I read somewhere we now have over 300m doses in order between all the different companies for a population of around 50million or so adults. That’s if they all go for a vaccine which around a third won’t.

Hopefully we will provide poorer countries with the excess doses perhaps?
Click to expand...
Tony Blair wrote an article today where he stressed the need for an international response. He highlights that it's a world problem, stating that even countries like New Zealand have to open up at some point for economic reasons so the virus being around in almost any country is every country's problem.

However, the world has been incredibly selfish. You've got the Chinese government hiding it for well over a month from the WHO at the start, the US government leaving every state for themselves and EU nations throwing their toys out the pram over the AstraZenica situation to name but a few examples. Even in the UK we have the SNP distastefully using the pandemic as an excuse to peruse their nationalist agenda.

I get that the UK situation is unacceptably dire, but just imagine what it will/is doing to developing nations in 2021. There will be no relent in the UK whilst it's mutating as it ravages through poorer nations.

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk
 
It won’t necessarily ravage through poor countries as they travel a lot less and generally have young populations.

More worrying right now is the actions of our supposed friends in the EU, what are they doing? Do they want to start another war?
Their bullying behaviour is typical of them thinking they can jump the queue, exactly what you would expect of the French.
They need us more than we need them so they had better reign it in and quickly.
 
Now now gents, let's not turn on each other or anyone else for that matter. We are all in this 's**tshow' together. The world has bigger problems than the usual 'he said, she said'. Emotions at this time, are understandably high and there was always going to be a case, that a nation felt that they weren't being treated unfairly at some point (eventhough the EU have brought this on themselves). Let this stuff go over your heads and they will work out the problem.
 
I’m not an epidemiologist, but it is worth saying that a lot of poor countries have very crowded cities. For example, the greater Jakarta area has over 30 million people living in a space the size of London. Just because they’re poor doesn’t mean everyone lives in remote villages. In these crowded conditions I can imagine that the virus will spread like wildfire. These are people who live hand to mouth in a country with no benefits system, so they can’t afford to self isolate. They may not always have access to clean water for hand washing. The hospitals are poorly funded and many people simply can’t afford the bills. I don’t think we have very accurate statistics about the pandemic in these poorer countries.
 
On a more positive note, it is thought that vaccines may already be slowing the spread of the virus in Britain, according to the Sunday Times.

Definitely a promising sign for when Boris has hopefully vaccinated everyone vulnerable, whether that is by his target of mid-February or at a later date!

EDIT: Here’s the article, if you want to read it: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...-of-virus-already-early-study-shows-lbwwgsvrh I do sincerely apologise, as it is behind a paywall.
 
Over crowded cities, poor water, sewerage and sanitation systems, a younger population mainly due to disease, inferior communications networks, poor and exclusive medical provisions and less money and ability to hold national vaccination programmes. There is no way on earth the developed world will be able raise a toast at the end of their vaccination programmes.

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I will criticise any nation that speaks of the UK like Macron did yesterday, to do so is not racist, what snowflake tosh.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ron-coronavirus-vaccine-exports-eu-controlled
If you have ever been to France you will also know they are quite efficient at queue jumping as well.

The EU has messed up and is so scared the UK might come out of this quicker and economically stronger first it will do anything to try and slow us down, they are controlling bully’s but we are holding nearly all the cards on this one.
A complete stroke of genius (or luck) by Handcock insisting that most vaccines ordered are produced in the UK.
 
BigT said:
I will criticise any nation that speaks of the UK like Macron did yesterday, to do so is not racist, what snowflake tosh.
Click to expand...

Emmanuel Macron said:
"I like your country a lot, but as I have already said, I think Brexit is an error."
Click to expand...

Yes, appalling stuff, how dare he? :unamused:

Macron is completely correct. This is an international issue, and it will be useless for the UK to be fully vaccinated if, for example, nobody else from mainland Europe or further afield can safely enter. As for war, the EU was, in part, strategically founded as a response to two ravaging World Wars, and they would have no intention starting another over an AstroZeneca contract.

It is admittedly a sticky situation, and it could be argued that the purchase and approval of so many vaccines counts as a 'win' for Brexit and the current government, but it's a little too early for a function to celebrate our national exceptionalism and bulldog spirit. The repercussions of this will echo for years to come, and the world is a much smaller place than some like to imagine, regardless of the colour of their passport.
 
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