Coronavirus

[jon81uk]

That sound like a great way to move forward.

I would add to it a push on keeping up hand hygiene for all and the catch it, kill it, bin it NHS campaign from a few years ago.



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hand and surface cleaning doesn’t make a huge difference with COVID, it’s airborne transmission in general so masks and distancing are more useful.

I find myself repeating the point - what restrictions are we actually delaying? Seriously? I know there is a list of restrictions that are technically in place, but the reality is almost no one is following them.

So in the real world, the only "restrictions" we are delaying are the restrictions on the economy and jobs. If things get so bad again that there's a need for another lockdown, these dates won't make a blind bit of difference as everyone is mixing and doing what they want anyway. It's late last summer all over again, it's lockdown or nothing I'm afraid. I'm sure many of us here are treating it seriously but I can count on 1 hand the amount of people I've seen following "the rules" in past few weeks.

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the main restrictions still in place are groups of six for indoors and table service at bars/restaurants. Also socially distanced low capacity at theatres and cinemas and night clubs remain closed.
Action has been taken against pubs and bars not adhering to table service rules that are allowing customers to mingle between tables, but it’s usually action against the venue not the customers.

So large venues are doing fairly okay, but smaller places that can’t fit many tables in and previously relied on customers standing while drinking are the main ones still closed.

it’s the lack of foreign tourists that’s probably the biggest economic issue to many venues now. London in particular is like a ghost town as there aren’t enough visitors to keep the restaurants busy.

Also with many people still working from home people aren’t going into cities at all so they are going to more local pubs and restaurants. Bars (and cafes) near workplaces are also quiet while people work from home.
Many of these venues can operate with the current restrictions but as they are in city areas there just isn’t the volume of people while workplaces are closed.

even if restrictions did change next week a lot of people won’t be going into the office. That part of the economy has changed forever I think we will have a lot less Pret A Manger stores!

 

[Benzin]

I hope when restrictions are lifted, people continue some of the new habits going forward like having hand sanitiser readily available in shops & venues, hand washing and feeling less hesitant / self conscious about wearing a mask in public when you catch a cold.

No chance, we're already at that point in most areas. Once masks are officially allowed off (and in most cases a number of people are kicking off about the prospect of slightly longer time with them) then it's back to normal we don't have any lessons to learn.

You can see it through the way that we're getting a push for people to go back to the office. As a lot of company's entire planning allow for expensive crap sandwiches to be sold to office workers in Central London.

 

[Alsty]

Of course it will, that’s it now, if you follow this flawed science model we will never unlock and get back to normal.
These mad professors are now pushing for zero cases before unlocking but this virus has been made to never go away.

Please provide a citation where SAGE are pushing for zero Covid cases before unlocking.

Please provide a citation that the virus "has been made to never go away".

 

[Rob]

When I visited Silver Dollar City and Dollywood in 2018 they both had hand sanitizer stations around the park, mainly attached to the entrances of toilet buildings. I think it was Silver Dollar's that had a lovely watermelon scent and I made great use of these. I think I said at the time that it would be good to see more parks do this, as you are touching a lot of shared surfaces in a theme park!

I do think that the shift to working from home is something that will last. Before March last year I had worked from home 2 or 3 days in around 6 years. Since then I have worked from home every single day, and the office I used to work in has been pretty much gutted (think it is or might be rented out). I don't think my current job role will ever go back to 5 days in the office; maybe 1 or 2 days a week in the office and 3 or 4 days a week at home. In the public sector especially substantial savings can be made in selling off buildings, and it makes more sense to get rid of buildings than staff.

 

[AT86]

Absolutely, the company I work for have got rid of their rented offices and the ones they own are being stripped out at the moment and reconfigured, there will only be enough desk space for 40% of people and the rest will be meeting rooms. Going into the office 5 days a week just won’t be a ‘thing’ for many, maybe 2 or 3 days max.

Pret and the other sandwich shops can moan all they like but you can’t stop progress, they just need to move with the times. There will still be demand for people wanting lunch, it just won’t necessarily be in city centres anymore, it’ll be in the suburbs near people’s homes.

 

[imanautie]

Absolutely, the company I work for have got rid of their rented offices and the ones they own are being stripped out at the moment and reconfigured, there will only be enough desk space for 40% of people and the rest will be meeting rooms. Going into the office 5 days a week just won’t be a ‘thing’ for many, maybe 2 or 3 days max.

Pret and the other sandwiches shops can moan all they like but you can’t stop progress, they just need to move with the times. There will still be demand for people wanting lunch, it just won’t necessarily be in city centres anymore, it’ll be in the suburbs near people’s homes.

I fully expect some lunch places moving to a dark kitchen model (read delivery only)

 

[Alsty]

Pret and the other sandwich shops can moan all they like but you can’t stop progress, they just need to move with the times. There will still be demand for people wanting lunch, it just won’t necessarily be in city centres anymore, it’ll be in the suburbs near people’s homes.

I was thinking this the other day. I don't see people returning to offices full time, and with increasing numbers of people working from home at least some of the week, will this see an increase in more retail opportunities closer to where people live?

Perhaps we'll see local coffee shops and sandwich shops appearing in more residential areas, which I don't think is a bad thing.

 

[WillPS]

Demographics nothing like out own....

Ireland have a population density of 72 people per square kilometre.
England have a population density of 432 people per square kilometre.
(most of whom are incapable of following rules)

It's easy to find statistics to support many arguments. I could point to Sweden and say they have a much lower death rate than the UK but didn't have a full lockdown at all.

Those figures are massively inflated by agricultural communities. Half the population live in towns and cities, 1.2m of them in Dublin alone. Average age is within a couple of years of our own. The figure for the entire EU is 0.16%. I agree though, there isn't a perfect LFL anywhere.

Regardless, it is certainly the case that if we had locked down sooner in March 2020 and more quickly and effectively in the Autumn (as Labour advocated on both occasions, not in hindsight) there would certainly have been fewer deaths - I'm not sure what evidence there is to dispute that.

 

[MattyH]

So We're now officialy in restrictions for the flu. The bloody Flu! This is riddiculous.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57467051

 

[Rob]

So We're now officialy in restrictions for the flu. The bloody Flu! This is riddiculous.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57467051

I think you know better than that @MattyH....

 

[Islander]

A headache, sore throat and runny nose are now the most commonly reported symptoms linked to Covid infection

Ahh, perfect just as hay-fever starts to really ramp-up for summer…


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[Rob]

If more common symptoms are looking similar to symptoms of the common cold and hayfever it becomes all the more important for people to take rapid tests at home twice a week. Going forward if everyone did that and was honest about their test results I do think it could have a significant impact on transmission.

 

[shakey]

Regardless, it is certainly the case that if we had locked down sooner in March 2020 and more quickly and effectively in the Autumn (as Labour advocated on both occasions, not in hindsight) there would certainly have been fewer deaths - I'm not sure what evidence there is to dispute that.

Yes there is no evidence to dispute that, or indeed any evidence to confirm that, because we didn't do it so who knows, and as I said Sweden didn't lock down at all and have a far lower death rate.

Of course the opposition would advocate locking down earlier, because they are the opposition. If the roles were reversed then a tory opposition may well have suggested the same while the government delayed. Or maybe if the Tories had locked down earlier then labour would have said they were being overcautious and putting businesses at risk.

Mistakes were made, there is no doubt about but unless we had done something like New Zealand and literally cut ourselves off from the rest of the world (which seems to have been the way to do it), then I don't see how things would have played out much differently.

 

[MattyH]

I think you know better than that @MattyH....

I mean I'm not wrong. Deaths are Low, Hospitalisation rates are stable. Release the people.

 

[Rob]

I mean I'm not wrong. Deaths are Low, Hospitalisation rates are stable. Release the people.

Well you were wrong, because it is not the flu. Some symtoms being reported have changed, that does not mean that the virus is suddenly behaving like other less severe diseases with the similar symptoms for those with mild disease.

 

[MattyH]

So do we put up with Restrictions forever? I'll be very surprised if in 4 weeks time they turn around and say yeah you can all be free, instead they'll change the goalposts and keep the restrictions.

 

[Alsty]

I mean I'm not wrong. Deaths are Low, Hospitalisation rates are stable. Release the people.

I'm not sure hospitalisations are stable though. Have a look. There has been a slight uptick recently.

Yes it's only small but it is a rise. Is it a fluke, will it hold at that rate, will it rise slowly or will it take off exponentially again? You cannot tell yet. There's just not enough data.

I don't see why you wouldn't want to wait a couple of weeks to see the trend. If it stays low then yes, you can unlock confidently.

 

[Craig]

Hospitalisation rates are stable

Factually, you are wrong on this. From a national perspective they are on the rise:



Remember, this is without any recent change to restrictions, so the concern is a change now will add further fuel to the fire.

I prefer a slight delay, albeit only just as in the grand scheme of things were fairly free to do a fair bit at the moment. Like others have said there has to be a time where we learn to live with it, but if that has to come a couple of weeks later I can deal with that based on existing restrictions, but understand the view of others who want it lifting now. What I don't agree with is stating incorrectly that there is no current effect on the healthcare system.

 

[BigT]

Please provide a citation where SAGE are pushing for zero Covid cases before unlocking.

I didn’t say SAGE specifically but here you go.

https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2021/01/devi-sridhar-uk-needs-zero-covid-strategy-prevent-endless-lockdowns

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....david-king-independent-sage-a9636246.html?amp

And there are many more examples.

Please provide a citation that the virus "has been made to never go away".

This one is a bit harder to prove as China burned all of the papers and killed off (sorry they conveniently died) the scientists involved but the more you read into it and the way this virus is behaving like no other before it kind of points to it been a modified version.
Proof of that will be very hard to find as above but it’s a well versed theory.

 

[Rob]

So do we put up with Restrictions forever? I'll be very surprised if in 4 weeks time they turn around and say yeah you can all be free, instead they'll change the goalposts and keep the restrictions.

I don't see your point. One minute you are stating that this is now the flu (which it is not). Then you are asking if we should put up with restrictions forever (no-one on here has ever suggested that as far as I am aware).

As Craig and Alsty have said, it seems sensible to hold off for a few more weeks so that we can get a better understanding on the impact of the Delta variant on hospital admissions. If they only increase slightly (as they are at the moment) then we can be much more confident as a nation when it comes to getting rid of the remaining restrictions. If we just do it on June 21st regardless of the current situation, and then find things spiraling out of control again, you either end up reversing the irreversible roadmap or have a disaster in the NHS.

To be fair to the Government here, they are only doing exactly what they set out in the roadmap in February. Here are the four tests decisions were to be based on:

• the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully - all good
  
• evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated - seems to be the case after two doses with the Delta variant
  
• infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS - we are not sure of this at the moment and need more time to gain a full understanding
  
• our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern - the risks have funamentally changed thanks to the Delta variant

Of course we all want to go back to normal. And I know there are still many businesses suffering because of current restrictions. But if things go badly wrong yet again you can be sure that even more businesses will end up suffering one way or another. A little bit of short term caution should bring longer term gains.