Coronavirus

[Matt N]

Out of interest, where are people going when they say social distancing/mask wearing etc. is pretty much none existent? I would say mask wearing in all indoor settings that I have been in over the last few weeks has been very good, and on the whole people are attempting to maintain social distancing (in some settings it can be more difficult but if it is only for a few seconds I don't think that particuarally matters).

Maybe I live in and visit more compliant areas of the country than others!

I’d agree, to be honest; in all the indoor settings I’ve been to, everyone has been wearing a mask, and where distancing is required (both indoor and outdoor) it generally seems to be well followed. Also, whenever you go out in a town or something, I find that most people are very willing to move out of your way and give you the required space.

From my experience, people are still very willing to follow the restrictions. In fact, according to a YouGov poll, the vast majority were in favour of Boris’ decision yesterday.

 

[rob666]

Agree with this - mask wearing whilst indoors is great around here - near 100% compliance, in fact far better than last year. I do sometimes wonder if all these people with arms in the air about "poor mask wearing compliance!" are talking about outdoor open spaces, where it's not really necessary.

No, I'm talking about the local Tesco Metro, here in sunny Blackburn, still "Top of the Pops".
Less than 50% wearing masks indoors.
Same at the Hounds Hill Centre Blackpool yesterday, about 50% wearing a mask on the chin, with coffee in hand.
All ages, all sizes, all colours.

 

[RoyJess]

Yes people are wearing mask, but as @rob666 say's

wearing a mask on the chin, with coffee in hand.
All ages, all sizes, all colours.

Or with the nose sticking out. There are outlets where people serving food not wearing any face mask

Plenty of sunflower lanyards being worn too

 

[RoyJess]

Agree with this - mask wearing whilst indoors is great around here - near 100% compliance, in fact far better than last year. I do sometimes wonder if all these people with arms in the air about "poor mask wearing compliance!" are talking about outdoor open spaces, where it's not really necessary.

Yes, I'm refereeing to incorrect wearing of face masks inside shops and shopping arcades

 

[Danza91]

I see zero distancing indoors and outdoors anymore, distancing has been gone since Christmas! Distancing is more effective than mask wearing so a four-week delay only devastates the hospitality and events industry further. Both are on their arses, in particular events. Four weeks may seem like a short period of time, but when it's been 15 months without anything it's another massive blow.

I had been hoping to get back to Wimbledon in a couple of weeks, though apparently it'll now be used as a Government pilot event so 50% capacity. Fingers crossed.

"Just a few more weeks" eh?

 

[Rob]

Again, not the case in the places I have been. People are still stepping out of the way to give more of a distance and have been trying their best to keep a distance in shops (although this can be more difficult in smaller supermarkets).

The only place I have been where distancing did go out of the window was the FA Cup Final. But everyone had to have a negative test before entry, and zero positive cases were reported after the event. I think that is the way forward for larger events in the short-to-medium term (double vaccine or negative rapid test).

Of course this four week delay is devastating for the industries that have suffered the most; especially theatres, night clubs and companies who do events. But the pandemic is not suddenly over, we have a new variant that we still don't fully understand and the Government have been adamant that whatever they do in terms of easing restrictions is not reversible. No-one can be sure what this new surge of infections is going to mean in terms of hospital admissions, but in another couple of weeks we should have a much better idea. That is why this delay is the sensible thing to do (and I saw that there is set to be a review of the delay 2 weeks in).

If the NHS was to become seriously overwhelmed again, with operating theatres turned in to makeshift wards and whatever other measures had to be taken, then we would be faced with the prospect of having to reverse some of the easing (or let the NHS and patient care suffer). That would cause much more harm than a 4 week delay. I know it is all ifs, and that is probably what is frustrating to some, but to me it does seem sensible and it was made clear in February that all four tests for easing restrictions had to be met for the next step to happen.

 

[jon81uk]

Down here mask wearing has been pretty good too, at the supermarket 95% probably have them on. Seems like there are a lot fewer people not covering their nose too so mask wearing feels better than it was last year.
Still get the chavs strutting about without one like they own the place but there isn't that many really.

Distancing is worse, when I choose to stand on the lines 2m apart outside a shop to queue to enter other people seem to look, wonder why I'm so far away and then realise and try to shuffle back to the lines.

 

[Matt N]

In terms of the delay; the only reason for it is so we can get more people fully vaccinated and partially vaccinated. Currently, 83% of adults have had one dose and 57% have had both doses. By 19th July, it’s hoped that 94% of adults will have had one dose and 76% will have had both doses. It’s also hoped that all over-40s will be fully vaccinated and all adults will have been offered one dose by 19th July. We should be at about, or near to, herd immunity by this point, so our pharmaceutical defence will hopefully be strong enough to not require NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions) or at least not require the more obtrusive ones (e.g. social distancing, face masks).

It’s worth remembering what the scientists said at yesterday’s briefing; the only test not met was the risk of new variants threatening to derail our progress. This is simply because the effect of the Delta variant on our situation is presently unknown; we can see that cases are going up by a fair amount, but the scientists and the government are merely waiting to see what effect the case rise has on hospitalisations and deaths. There is a lag of a few weeks between cases and hospital admissions, so it remains to be seen what effect the current exponential case rise will have on hospitalisations and deaths. It’s currently looking fairly promising, as hospitalisations and deaths, although increasing, have remained fairly low and are increasing at a considerably slower rate than cases; they’re certainly not increasing at the rate they did at the start of the first and second waves, and they are actually still below SAGE’s original “best case scenario” for step 3 going ahead. However, the impact remains to be seen, and I think the government is merely trying to be cautious and see how the variant impacts hospital admissions before lifting the remaining restrictions.

Also, the government is rather interestingly now referring to 19th July as the “terminus date” for COVID restrictions, and not the “at the earliest” date like they referred to 21st June and the other roadmap stages. Boris has very much implied that we need to learn to live with COVID at some stage, as well as using the “terminus date” phrase, and Michael Gove has said that it would take an “unprecedented and remarkable change in circumstances” to derail the 19th July deadline for removing restrictions.

 

[Danza91]

In terms of the delay; the only reason for it is so we can get more people fully vaccinated and partially vaccinated. Currently, 83% of adults have had one dose and 57% have had both doses. By 19th July, it’s hoped that 94% of adults will have had one dose and 76% will have had both doses. It’s also hoped that all over-40s will be fully vaccinated and all adults will have been offered one dose by 19th July. We should be at about, or near to, herd immunity by this point, so our pharmaceutical defence will hopefully be strong enough to not require NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions) or at least not require the more obtrusive ones (e.g. social distancing, face masks).

It’s worth remembering what the scientists said at yesterday’s briefing; the only test not met was the risk of new variants threatening to derail our progress. This is simply because the effect of the Delta variant on our situation is presently unknown; we can see that cases are going up by a fair amount, but the scientists and the government are merely waiting to see what effect the case rise has on hospitalisations and deaths. There is a lag of a few weeks between cases and hospital admissions, so it remains to be seen what effect the current exponential case rise will have on hospitalisations and deaths. It’s currently looking fairly promising, as hospitalisations and deaths, although increasing, have remained fairly low and are increasing at a considerably slower rate than cases; they’re certainly not increasing at the rate they did at the start of the first and second waves, and they are actually still below SAGE’s original “best case scenario” for step 3 going ahead. However, the impact remains to be seen, and I think the government is merely trying to be cautious and see how the variant impacts hospital admissions before lifting the remaining restrictions.

Also, the government is rather interestingly now referring to 19th July as the “terminus date” for COVID restrictions, and not the “at the earliest” date like they referred to 21st June and the other roadmap stages. Boris has very much implied that we need to learn to live with COVID at some stage, as well as using the “terminus date” phrase, and Michael Gove has said that it would take an “unprecedented and remarkable change in circumstances” to derail the 19th July deadline for removing restrictions.

Please go back a little further and you'll find the actual reason for this delay is due to Johnson not red listing India sooner because he wanted a trade deal. That's literally why. 22 days it took.

On your final paragraph. Literally last week Johnson was saying there's 'nothing in the data to delay June 21st'. You simply cannot trust a word they say. July 19th will turn into 'just a few more weeks to get all adults double-jabbed'.

 

[Matt N]

Here’s a good article on what Boris said last night at the briefing: https://apple.news/A-bV_jmCCSNCcfynAGc8ybA

Some good quotes and interesting points include:

Johnson’s science advisers agreed that little more would be gained by a delay beyond four weeks, with modelling saying that a pause would reduce a peak of cases in August by up to half.

Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, said that the next few weeks would bring a “double protection” as the over-40s gained the benefit of a second dose and young adults had their first one. Delaying the end of restrictions until close to the school holidays would “also take the pressure off, and that should between them significantly reduce the peak”, he said.

Chris Whitty, chief medical officer for England, said that “no one thinks at the end of the four-week delay the risk has gone — there will still be substantial numbers in hospital”. He said, though, that this needed to be balanced against the harms of restrictions.

From what’s been said here, I personally infer that the chances of restrictions extending beyond 19th July are currently quite slim provided nothing goes drastically wrong.

 

[Matt.GC]

I get that people don't like masks but they don't seem to the the problem. I've found most people compliant with them. It's distancing I don't understand, there's hardly any anywhere as far as I can see yet I can see very few benefits of not doing it in shops and queue lines for example. It doesn't get anyone anywhere any faster and in this weather in particular and some people with questionable personal hygiene habits, I'd want to stay away from as many people as possible.

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[Alsty]

For those who're interested, the SAGE interim report on delaying step 4 is available here.

A few points from the report:

• Our results suggest that Step 2 of the roadmap likely increased the reproduction number (averaged across all three SARS-CoV-2 variants modelled) to just above 1 in April 2021. The additional easing of restrictions at roadmap Step 3 increased this further. Even without implementing Step 4 of the roadmap, a summer wave of infections, hospitalisations and deaths is likely
  
• Implementing roadmap Step 4 as planned is likely to exacerbate this and lead to a third wave of infection, peaking in August or early September 2021. Under most scenarios, this summer wave would be smaller than the January 2021 wave, in terms of hospitalisations and deaths, but comparable to the April or October 2020 waves
  
• The model projects that more than half of the hospitalisations and deaths occurring in the summer 2021 wave will be in unvaccinated individuals, with admissions being split relatively evenly between the 45-64, 65-74 and 75+ year age groups. Deaths are likely to be concentrated in the 75+ age group
  
• Delaying Step 4 of the roadmap is likely to have an impact in the short term, reducing the impact of the summer wave. A two week delay has a modest impact, reducing deaths as measured until the end of October 2021 from 49,700 (35,600-67,200) to 48,500 (34,400-66,900) for the medium / central immune escape scenario and 50% increase in transmissibility for the Delta B.1.617.2 variant. Delaying Step 4 for 5 weeks, so that it coincides with the school vacation period is expected to have a larger effect in the short term helping to flatten the summer wave and reducing the number of deaths from 49,700 (35,600-67,200) to 43,500 (31,200-62,900) and peak deaths from 700 (500-1,200) per day to 500 (300-800) for the medium / central immune escape scenario and 50% increase in transmissibility for the Delta B.1.617.2 variant (Table 6).

There are also some interesting tables and graphs in the report that show the various scenarios in terms of hospitalisations and deaths, and how effective the vaccines are after single and both doses in terms of transmissibility, infection, hospitalisation and death.

 

[monkeyboy]

It’s interesting to see the effects of not wearing a mask in places like Florida and Texas compare to other states.


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[monkeyboy]

For those who're interested, the SAGE interim report on delaying step 4 is available here.

A few points from the report:

• Our results suggest that Step 2 of the roadmap likely increased the reproduction number (averaged across all three SARS-CoV-2 variants modelled) to just above 1 in April 2021. The additional easing of restrictions at roadmap Step 3 increased this further. Even without implementing Step 4 of the roadmap, a summer wave of infections, hospitalisations and deaths is likely
  
• Implementing roadmap Step 4 as planned is likely to exacerbate this and lead to a third wave of infection, peaking in August or early September 2021. Under most scenarios, this summer wave would be smaller than the January 2021 wave, in terms of hospitalisations and deaths, but comparable to the April or October 2020 waves
  
• The model projects that more than half of the hospitalisations and deaths occurring in the summer 2021 wave will be in unvaccinated individuals, with admissions being split relatively evenly between the 45-64, 65-74 and 75+ year age groups. Deaths are likely to be concentrated in the 75+ age group
  
• Delaying Step 4 of the roadmap is likely to have an impact in the short term, reducing the impact of the summer wave. A two week delay has a modest impact, reducing deaths as measured until the end of October 2021 from 49,700 (35,600-67,200) to 48,500 (34,400-66,900) for the medium / central immune escape scenario and 50% increase in transmissibility for the Delta B.1.617.2 variant. Delaying Step 4 for 5 weeks, so that it coincides with the school vacation period is expected to have a larger effect in the short term helping to flatten the summer wave and reducing the number of deaths from 49,700 (35,600-67,200) to 43,500 (31,200-62,900) and peak deaths from 700 (500-1,200) per day to 500 (300-800) for the medium / central immune escape scenario and 50% increase in transmissibility for the Delta B.1.617.2 variant (Table 6).

There are also some interesting tables and graphs in the report that show the various scenarios in terms of hospitalisations and deaths, and how effective the vaccines are after single and both doses in terms of transmissibility, infection, hospitalisation and death.

I thought we were at better % rate than sages best case scenario, data not dates seems to have been push under the carpet.


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[Vik]

If anyone is thinking that social distancing is still a thing should take a trip to Thorpe Park and report back. Even if this was normal times, the lack of spatial awareness from some(think most) was shocking.

Out and about in shops most people seem to wear masks, though a high proportion seem to be used more than a chin cover now. Using trains is a different matter, even the full and standing room only trains there is barely 50% compliance and most of them are chin covers. That’s not just around my area, I witnessed the same thing when travelling around London too a couple of weeks ago, though compliance was a bit higher. Social distancing isn’t a thing. I don’t know how anyone could social distance on a packed 2 carriage train full and standing? Nobody outdoors(or indoors for that matter) is particularly bothered in regards to distancing, just the usual personal space offers as per pre covid times (Thorpe Park aside)

I could stomach a few more weeks if I trusted the government to actually end it then, but I don’t. There will be another variant of concern, scientists calling for yet more delays. If we are not careful it will end up being pushed back to autumn and there will be calls for lockdowns again.

it isn’t just night clubs and theatres that suffer. It’s all the hospitality and leisure industry that will continue to suffer with reduced capacity. Remember these places aren’t all major chains that can absorb extra costs, there are a lot of independent businesses built up by the average person on the street who has put their life savings in to it and makes very little money but continues because it’s what they want to do. Not forgetting also that the support starts to run out at the end of this month as well as any protections afforded too. So even though your favourite local may have rep opened, it doesn’t mean it will still be open in the summer.

There is an element of ‘I’m ok Jack’ with some people who support the never ending restrictions. Most seem to the the ones who work from home, living in leafy suburbia, loving the fact they dont have to commute daily anymore and hoping it continues. Not everyone has that luxury. Spare a thought for those single people who live alone in flats, who have been cooped up indoors for best part of a year and barely seen a sole? As one person (not here)put it the other day ‘ Collateral Damage’ which I thought was a pretty nasty thing to say but sadly not surprised to see such comments anymore.

Also worth noting that international travel is not banned (as someone mentioned yesterday). I know quite a lot of people who have gone abroad the last few weeks, mainly to stick two fingers up at the government, and know quite a few more who are now planning to go ASAP, again, in defiance of the government.

If I was a betting man I would have no qualms in betting that restrictions will continue in to August and beyond, and by September there will be calls for Fire Breaks again (Remember how well that worked in Wales?), then more lockdowns, and before we know it we will be looking at sacrificing Christmas to safe next summer (Sound familiar?).

I’m done with it now, and so are many of not most others i know, but then I don’t live in leafy suburbia with a cushy work from home job, safe from nasty outside world where things are a lot different to what they imagine so what would I know. We need to accept that Covid is here to stay, and learn to live with it and accept that people will die, just like people die of other things.

 

[Matt N]

For booster jabs, could the Novavax jab possibly be a good one to use?

It’s been said to be 100% effective at preventing severe disease and 90.4% effective at preventing symptomatic COVID in large-scale clinical trials in the USA and Mexico: https://apple.news/AiFbN4OPWTOKNV1D6ir-yyw

A jab that’s 100% effective at preventing severe disease would certainly help limit the strain on the NHS!

 

[imanautie]

For booster jabs, could the Novavax jab possibly be a good one to use?

It’s been said to be 100% effective at preventing severe disease and 90.4% effective at preventing symptomatic COVID in large-scale clinical trials in the USA and Mexico: https://apple.news/AiFbN4OPWTOKNV1D6ir-yyw

A jab that’s 100% effective at preventing severe disease would certainly help limit the strain on the NHS!

I believe they are currently looking into using the main set of vaccines as a second jab, I would guess something so effective at severe disease would possibly be reserved for cases where it's likely to save a life.

 

[Rob]

Important to remember that trial data and real world data can be different. Pretty sure the AZ vaccine was 100% effective at preventing severe disease when results were initially announced! Even so, the more effective vaccines available to the world the better.

 

[Benjsh]

All I want to know is if I get a free ticket to Dollywood thrown in with my Moderna Vaccine. Hahahaha

 

[Tibble]

Booked in to be vaccinated on the 19th, joining the Pfizer chiefs!

My doctors have done quite well, they messaged me the evening before it was opened up and allowed me to book in locally early, whereas someone I know who is at a different doctors didn't get anything from his and has to drive to Manchester to get his