Coronavirus

[Matt.GC]

But then another million small businesses will go to the wall, and the economic costs will put more people into serious debt.
We simply cannot afford to keep leisure businesses closed for what is now pretty much a non lethal virus.
The school kids will all get better with very little treatment, just like routine winter colds and stomach bugs.
Continuing to restrict the economy is not sustainable.

I think we reached the point where ongoing restrictions were doing far more damage to the health of the nation than good a few weeks ago. I don't see all this ongoing compliance with restrictions that others have mentioned on here on a daily basis, and I work with the general public every day, this shows in case numbers. It's a free for all out there even more so than it was last summer so the lifting of main restrictions would have a massive economic benefit but only marginal effect on the transmission of the virus in my view.

I get why they want to have that final push to reach more people with the jab, especially since their lackluster handling at the beginning and in the latter half of last year was so poor. But I see ongoing restrictions as government spin to save face and nothing more. If people weren't fed up enough with loosing their jobs, businesses and freedoms before, they'll certainly be be sticking 2 fingers up since Hancock's shenanigans have made a mockery of everything.

 

[tayspru]

If international travel doesn’t start soon, then affordable travel will become a complete thing of the past. Airlines across the board (both low cost and long haul) are simply running out of assets to sell, and have made as many redundancies as they would be able to and still function in any way.

To those saying travel should wait until after the Winter, there’ll be nobody left to take you. Airlines haven’t received any of the bespoke support that was promised in March of 2020, and are at breaking point

 

[rob666]

Perhaps affordable travel being a thing of the past is a good thing for the planet in the long term.
Would be nice to see aviation fuel taxed at a comparable rate to road fuel, not just to save the planet, but to pay for the cost of covid as well.
To be able to fly to Poland at the same cost as a trip to your nearest big city is plain/plane crazy.

 

[tayspru]

Perhaps affordable travel being a thing of the past is a good thing for the planet in the long term.
Would be nice to see aviation fuel taxed at a comparable rate to road fuel, not just to save the planet, but to pay for the cost of covid as well.
To be able to fly to Poland at the same cost as a trip to your nearest big city is plain/plane crazy.

Aviation is taxed in other ways to do this, and airlines are also moving to become carbon neutral through various initiatives. We’re an island nation with a multicultural population, it would be foolish to allow our travel industry to collapse, cutting off thousands of Brits from their families overseas, as well as vital business and leisure connections. With Brexit , and the government not offering any kind of tailored support for the industry, it’s almost like they’re hellbent on ostracising us from the world completely and truly become Little Britain, leaving such luxuries as an international travel for the super rich

 

[delta79]

As long as the RAF fly them around in bojo 1. They wont give a monkeys

Sent from my SM-A217F using Tapatalk

 

[Dave]

Not a new virus, but could be a lot more or less contagious and a lot more or less virulent.

We don't know what a future covid-19 virus looks like, except to say that it could be hella virulent, hella contagious and we do not have full confidence in the current vaccines to prevent it, thus border controls are not pointless - this is my point.

The more virulent/ contagious the variants get the less successful border controls will become. You can’t stop all movement as we have to trade, so there are always opportunities for introducing a viral variant.

Other coronavirus’s have no antibody induced immunity in humans for any length of time but as we are exposed to the other 4 coronavirus’s in childhood we maintain a T-cell response which is one reason why we may not get as ill with the 4 established coronavirus’s in circulation. I would suspect even with vaccine escape the impact of infection will decrease as our T-cells still have a better primer for attacking the virus than before.

At the end of the day this virus will never go away, so unfortunately as much as I hate agreeing with this government we are going to have to soon decide what our risk appetite is for the future.

 

[rob666]

Aviation is taxed in other ways to do this, and airlines are also moving to become carbon neutral through various initiatives. We’re an island nation with a multicultural population, it would be foolish to allow our travel industry to collapse, cutting off thousands of Brits from their families overseas, as well as vital business and leisure connections. With Brexit , and the government not offering any kind of tailored support for the industry, it’s almost like they’re hellbent on ostracising us from the world completely and truly become Little Britain, leaving such luxuries as an international travel for the super rich

Aviation is not realistically taxed for long term planet survival.
You simply cannot make air transport carbon neutral, it is all smoke and mirrors.
Promises of electric flight...very short distance, very few passengers, little more than token effort...we should not use planes for short journeys...even Boris.
Planes take massive amounts of fuel to get them in the air...there is no simple answer to it, whatever the "various initiatives" are...air transport is carbon intensive, and large amounts of air transport are not essential to everyday life...
I don't mean make our air industry collapse, just simply tax all aviation fuel correctly, to make a level playing field with other transport services, trains buses and cars/coaches may not be as convenient, but they do a lot less damage to the environment.
The world would be a healthier, more sustainable place if international aviation travel was only available for the super rich.
Sorry for wandering off topic, but if plane use goes back to what it was pre covid, we will all be going to hell in a handcart, climate change is accelerating, with no real intent from those in power to tackle it properly, lots of talk and promises for the future, but very little practical work is actually taking place.

 

[Danza91]

Travel is where it can gets subjective again. Personally, there's not really much I like about the UK at all, and jetting off once or twice a year is, for me, necessary for the good of my own wellbeing. People will agree/disagree with me and that's fine. There are other ways people can significantly help the planet, such as by buying local, going vegan, or not having kids.

It is expected business travel will be cut down post-COVID. Good news for the planet, however bad for airlines and passengers used to bagging cheap seats though, as a large chunk of airlines' revenue comes from business travel. If this is the case the 'cheap seats' will cease to exist anyway. Maybe as a result the UK won't be quite as overpriced.

 

[Matt N]

It would appear that the government is going all in on promoting 19th July as the date for step 4, and it appears that rules will be quite drastically eased; Robert Jenrick said this morning that the approach will be more “permissive” and “based on personal choice” from 19th July onwards: https://apple.news/AjcoSAKyvRxq4am5Jp7Qo0Q

There are even rumours swirling that things like self-isolation for fully vaccinated people may be going, and the requirement to give track & trace details at pubs may go.

This may increase cases by up to 26%, but this is a sacrifice the government are apparently willing to make based on the fact that despite our exponentially rising cases, hospitalisations and deaths have remained basically the same.

I really think things might feel quite normal after 19th July!

 

[Benjsh]

Let's bleeding hope so. Let's get on with life now.

 

[rob666]

Would be nice to get back to some degree of normality for a while, but to say hospitalisations have stayed the same is simply false, hospitalisations are increasing, with the usual delay of a month or so behind infection rates.
Those in hospital are generally easier to manage, and are not dropping dead as frequently, but the hospital rates are clearly rising.
Edit...And I'm afraid I don't believe a word the Housing Minister says...his credibility is not great after acting illegally on previous development issues.
If the message came from somebody who actually appears to know what he is talking about regarding the virus, not a dodgy property developer made good, I might have a little more confidence in what was being said.

 

[Matt N]

Would be nice to get back to some degree of normality for a while, but to say hospitalisations have stayed the same is simply false, hospitalisations are increasing, with the usual delay of a month or so behind infection rates.
Those in hospital are generally easier to manage, and are not dropping dead as frequently, but the hospital rates are clearly rising.

Hospitalisations have increased slightly, but I think without the vaccines, we would be seeing a steep, exponential rise in hospitalisations and deaths like with the previous waves.

The delay between cases and hospitalisation is usually about 2-3 weeks or just over, isn’t it? With the sustained case rise we’re seeing and have been seeing for over a month or possibly close to 2 months (I seem to remember the Delta variant & increasing case numbers inciting calls to delay step 3, which occurred on 17th May), I think we would be in quite a dire situation by now with hospitalisations had the vaccine not been around to help out.

We’ve had exponentially rising cases for well over a month now, so I’d say that the fact hospitalisations are barely increasing and deaths have stayed practically the same in spite of the fact we’ve had exponentially rising cases for a fair period of time now would suggest that vaccines are working, personally.

For some idea, our case rate is now around the same as it was in November 2020, when the second lockdown was imposed, but our deaths have remained virtually flat since hitting a low in around April, whereas they had gotten pretty high again (quite comfortably in triple figures) by November 2020 following a low over the summer. That’s the key difference, and that’s why the government are keen to press ahead with step 4.

For instance, our case rate on 3rd July 2021 was 24,447 new cases, while on 15th November 2020, it was 24,962 new cases, so broadly similar. In terms of deaths, however; on 3rd July 2021, we had 18 deaths, and the 7-day average has been virtually stagnant since around late April, whereas on 15th November 2020, we had 168 deaths, and the 7-day average was going up at quite a fast rate.

 

[rob666]

We are opening up at a time when deaths, hospitalisations and case numbers are all on the up, however much ministers (and our Matt!) try to put a positive spin on the numbers.
The government are (rightly) easing restrictions because it is desperate to get the economy (and tax revenues) going again, in the summer holiday peak...like last summer.
There will still be some restrictions, and further lockdowns, as the year goes on, in my humble opinion.
The big concern is if, and when, another mutation comes along that beats the current vaccines.

 

[D4n]

We are opening up at a time when deaths, hospitalisations and case numbers are all on the up, however much ministers (and our Matt!) try to put a positive spin on the numbers.
The government are (rightly) easing restrictions because it is desperate to get the economy (and tax revenues) going again, in the summer holiday peak...like last summer.
There will still be some restrictions, and further lockdowns, as the year goes on, in my humble opinion.
The big concern is if, and when, another mutation comes along that beats the current vaccines.

I understand the concern about further variants but unfortunately my feeling is that this is a risk that we now 100% need to take. People's sanity and livelihoods depend upon it

 

[rob666]

Couldn't agree more, but to say hospital admissions are not increasing is simply not true.
They are on another clear rise, the upward curve, following an increase in cases, is clear and obvious.

 

[Dave]

Couldn't agree more, but to say hospital admissions are not increasing is simply not true.
They are on another clear rise, the upward curve, following an increase in cases, is clear and obvious.

It is but not to the same extent as the last wave even when you adjust for the lag between infection and hospitalisation. It’s quite significantly lower in fact.

 

[rob666]

Pedantics and semantics here... I agree completely, hospitalisations and deaths are significantly lower than the last wave, but to say that hospitalisations have generally remained the same is factually incorrect.
Hospitalisations are clearly increasing at the moment.
I'm all for reopening, it was made clear that once the vulnerable were double vaccinated it would happen, and bring it on, but we will be back at square one by the end of the summer probably.

 

[Dave]

Pedantics and semantics here... I agree completely, hospitalisations and deaths are significantly lower than the last wave, but to say that hospitalisations have generally remained the same is factually incorrect.
Hospitalisations are clearly increasing at the moment.
I'm all for reopening, it was made clear that once the vulnerable were double vaccinated it would happen, and bring it on, but we will be back at square one by the end of the summer probably.

I think what happens this autumn and winter very much depends on what the Flu decides to do. If it’s a quiet flu season we can probably cope with limited restrictions. If the flu decides to join the party then almost certainly we will get unstuck.

 

[BigT]

Average deaths have actually fallen by 1 over the last 7 days according to the government dashboard.
Hospitalisations are up by 24.1% but the actual numbers are very low, that’s the problem with using percentages when the actual figures are low, a slight increase in numbers looks a lot in percentage terms.

There is also the way we are testing and logging these numbers, whilst 25k cases sounds a lot we are testing statistically a lot more than every other country, in fact no other country comes close.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104645/covid19-testing-rate-select-countries-worldwide/

We also log people in hospital who have tested positive for COVID, not because of COVID.
So you fall over break your leg the first thing they do at hospital is test you for COVID, positive and your a COVID admission statistically.
Same with deaths, these are deaths for ANY reason within 28 days of a positive test.
The more positive cases we log, statistically the cases we will have in hospital and deaths will also rise.
Some will of course be because of COVID, largely because they still haven’t had a vaccine for whatever reason, (I’m not going to judge because some can’t have it) but we have now reached a point where we have to say it’s you own decision to carry on with restrictions if you wish to, the rest of us will however take our chances and get on with our lives.

 

[Benjsh]

Most people who are now being hospitalised with it is through pure stupidity of not getting the jab. I'm not putting my life on hold any longer for anti vax brigade. You don't want the jab? Fine. But don't expect any sympathy when you get ill.

The numbers of fully jabbed people in hospital are next to none and the number with only half dose aren't that big. They have just sadly been unlucky and got it before being full vaxxed.

I had my 2nd jab on Thursday thankfully. Now I'm less than 3 weeks from hopefully being immune for life as I had the Moderna one which is showing some of the best signs of lifetime immunity so they say.