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Coronavirus

Coronavirus - The Poll

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    97
I was looking out of the window earlier and I still saw quite a few cars on the road, strangely. Considering Boris announced lockdown yesterday, things still seem quite busy from what I'm seeing.

However, I think that the fact we're now accelerating rapidly would suggest that we're pretty near the peak, even though it wasn't predicted to be until June.
 
GaryH said:
I think we are probably 3-4 weeks away from the peak at the moment
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Judging by the Chinese trend; if our peak is at the end of April, that should mean that cases start to drop from May onwards and then things start to return to normal in about June/July. I'd be quite happy with this (well, happy as far as the possible outcomes of this pandemic go); it would mean that we only have about 3 or 4 months of disruption, and it would hopefully minimise the economic impact.

Even if there is a second wave, our new measures will buy us time to prepare for this second wave so that we perhaps don't need to apply such drastic measures if the disease does break out majorly again. Remember, the main reason that social distancing is in place is to reduce the strain on the NHS, so if the NHS is more prepared for a second wave, then it will come under less strain.
 
I honestly don’t believe it’s worth anyone outside those specifically in the fields of virology and epidemiology speculating how long this will last, when the peak will occur, how long things will take to return to normal after that etc... all it does is cause pointless panic and concern when it’s over-estimated, and unfounded hope when it’s under-estimated.

How long it lasts is how long it lasts - speculation is pointless and actively counter-productive.


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Agree @Islander - but not only that, the duration of the outbreak and the peak of it is largely influenced by how we as a population respond to the advice/guidance/instruction from government. It's not been our finest hour on that front thus far.

Central Line this morning (from BBC News):

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Very true @Rick. Think it’s healthy not to think about how long this will last, or night last, or even how others are behaving. Just concentrate on what you yourself are doing, that is within your control, to help shorten the times and effects as much as possible :)


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Big news, and some very positive news, in my opinion; China is partially lifting the lockdown measures in Wuhan on 8th April: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/24/asia/coronavirus-wuhan-lockdown-lifted-intl-hnk/index.html
This is definitely a positive sign that China has seen the worst of it, in my opinion. Wuhan was the very place where the outbreak started, and it was by far the city where the most cases were being reported at the peak of the outbreak in February.
 
I went to Co Op. Shelves slightly better stocked than they have been. Limit of one of each item per customer. Still no bog roll.

Every other shop bar Co Op and newsagents is shut.

Newsagents was filled with kids all standing around just inside the door, blocking it.

Co Op was filled with old people, all standing around chatting about - I kid you not - how many people they know who have died in the last few weeks!

These people all deserve to die slowly of the Lungrot.
 
  1. Each week delaying intervention will increase the number of cases, hospitalisations and fatalities by up to threefold. The earlier and stronger we act, the more lives will be saved. Through strong, rapid intervention it is possible to reduce the number of fatalities below 10,000 in the US and below 1,000 in the UK.

  2. Even in the best scenarios, case numbers would not fall to more manageable levels for four to six weeks from today, so people should prepare for up to two months of physical distancing and significantly limited movement. This would probably follow with a need for some level of continued distancing and vigorous country-wide surveillance, testing and isolation until a vaccine is available.
I really should stop with the internet, its too depressing.

and trying to hold a decent conversation with my cats is getting me nowhere
:confused:

http://theconversation.com/coronavi...ic-can-tell-us-about-the-weeks-to-come-134076
 
Looking outside our home today, it looks like all our elderly neighbours are carrying on their daily day to day life as normal, I don't think the message is getting through :rolleyes:
 
Yeah it's pretty much the same around where I live. Roads are busy. People are out and about. Give it a few days and we may be in lockdown MK2. Police with orders to shoot on sight! ;)

As for antibody test, should be available in the next few months. What they don't know is how long the immunity lasts and if it covers all strains. I was reading an article from Iceland (not the shop) where they tested 70 patients with the virus and decoded the genome which showed it had come from Italy, Spain and 7 they matched to England. They also found that the English ones were another strain. They think on addition to the L and S strains there may be another.

Doesn't mean it's worse, but they think there is a 3rd strain now. They think eventually the virus will keep mutating in that it becomes more contagious but less deadly.

Also of interest are studies now taking place to see if the BCG vaccination many of us had as kids can trigger an immune response which may offer some immunity towards this virus. The Netherlands, Canada, Exeter in the UK and Australia are trailing it on health workers to see if they contract the virus against those who had a placebo. Not sure when the results will be out but interesting nevertheless.
 
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