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Coronavirus

Coronavirus - The Poll

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There are really strong rules on using people as test subjects developed after the 2nd world war. These govern pretty much the entire western world in this area. I know people are worried about the speed this vaccine has come out but the main reasons for this are the money being thrown at the problem and it’s high virulence meaning you can get a good sample size quick. The only other step that hasn’t been completed is the immunity longevity evaluation, in normal times you wouldn’t bother with a vaccine if it proves to only last for 6 months but that’s less of a concern now, that’s why other trials also take longer.

Obviously no clinical trial can assess the 1 in a million events as you can’t run trials that big so there is a second safety level once drugs are approved (yellow card), that watches for unexpected events.
 
Islander said:
This is completely made up nonsense, a really sad example of the extreme misinformation that’s bounded about on the topic of COVID.

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Really? You think I make this up?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....-likely-die-car-accident-injury-Covid-19.html

Dave said:
Project fear is a myth, it’s just a convenient throw away term people use when they don’t understand statistics or want to ignore facts as it doesn’t align with their personal view.
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So the data used to persuade us that a second lockdown was needed was not project fear? No need to look it up it has been proven to be out of date when it was used and used specifically to create fear.
That’s just one example, there are hundreds of examples of data and projections whipped up to create fear of COVID.
It could be argued that it has been done for good reasons to get the public to obey the rules through fear of the consequences but to be in complete denial of it and calling it a myth is just sticking your head in the sand I’m afraid.
 
BigT said:
So the data used to persuade us that a second lockdown was needed was not project fear? No need to look it up it has been proven to be out of date when it was used and used specifically to create fear.
That’s just one example, there are hundreds of examples of data and projections whipped up to create fear of COVID.
It could be argued that it has been done for good reasons to get the public to obey the rules through fear of the consequences but to be in complete denial of it and calling it a myth is just sticking your head in the sand I’m afraid.
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You say no need to look it up, that might be where you keep falling down, you take Daily Mail quotes and assume they report accurately.

The data used for the 2nd lockdown was debated, some Tory MP’s felt that the earlier model the government used was poorly decided as later modelling showed a slightly improved projection.

The later model still showed a large second peak (which happened), and a significant pressure on the NHS (which happened, where I work we very nearly reached breaking point and our Covid patient numbers where far higher than in the first peak), and a significant increase is death (which happened).

You are also confusing “data” with “projections”, data is a point of fact. Best analogy is the weather, yesterday’s weather is data, it is un disputed fact that the weather was as it is, that is a data point, other facts would be current pressure, wind speed etc. A projection uses data and creates a model of what to expect like a weather forecast, in general with any model the further away you project the greater level of error you get.

Now the amount of restriction you place on people
based on these factors is a political decision advised by the science but not decided by the science. Some politicians believe that a crippled NHS and high deaths do not warrant lockdowns, others do. Vote how you believe but don’t accuse scientists of project fear. They deal in facts not opinion and science is science and won’t be conveniently pushed in any direction to suit people’s belief, hence why Gove suggested people where sick of experts, everyone is so obsessed with the sanctity of their belief it’s easier to question the facts than question themselves.

We live in weird times.
 
Dave said:
You say no need to look it up, that might be where you keep falling down, you take Daily Mail quotes and assume they report accurately.
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https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-54831334

How about the BBC? Do they also report accurately?
Generally I take a broad approach to the news from various sources, it’s not fair to say I keep quoting The Daily Mail, I’ve equally quoted The Guardian over the years.

The problem with the science is the scientists don’t all agree and you can easily find one to support any point of view on COVID as the disease is still in its infancy and not yet completely understood.
 
I don't think this is scaremongering at all. I think we only need to compare the countries that have taken this pandemic seriously to those that have not, and you will see that those that have faired better with the pandemic regarding saving lives and open up the economy are the ones that have acted sooner and stricter.

The eastern countries including New Zealand have treated this pandemic like a SARS virus, where as the western world including Europe and USA have treated this pandemic like a bad flu virus. Those countries that have treaded and acted upon this virus like the SARS virus have faired many time more better than those that have simply dismissed this as nothing more than the Flu virus.
 
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BigT said:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-54831334

How about the BBC? Do they also report accurately?
Generally I take a broad approach to the news from various sources, it’s not fair to say I keep quoting The Daily Mail, I’ve equally quoted The Guardian over the years.

The problem with the science is the scientists don’t all agree and you can easily find one to support any point of view on COVID as the disease is still in its infancy and not yet completely understood.
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The BBC is better than most but I don’t know what you are getting at with the quote? I said in my post that there was a debate about the validity of the first model they presented as it was out of date. But the later model still showed a second peak and reasonable predictions on hospital admissions etc.

I also mentioned the inherent error in models, I took exception to your characterisation that scientists “whip up data” to cause fear. They don’t. The data is as presented, what politicians choose to do with it is as mentioned up for debate. I personally think the current government is incompetent but on this issue I don’t believe they have malicious intent (they do on other things, looking at you brexit).
 
In a promising development, the government reckons that they can vaccinate a sufficient amount of the vulnerable by the end of February: https://apple.news/AGHDwHFdeQ4WaSkaOOZ7Gqg

A study has also been conducted, and it believes that once this happens, it will prevent 99% of COVID deaths.
 
Thameslink Rail said:
I'm on an android, for me that link just sends me to an advert for Apple news.
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Ah right; apologies for that.

In that case, here’s the full article:
The “majority” of vulnerable people in the UK will be vaccinated throughout January and February, the government has said, as authorities prepare to rollout the first available doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech jab.

Around 25 million people are covered by the 10 priority categories set out by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI).

Under this guidance, the first vaccine supplies will be sent to care home staff and residents, NHS frontline workers and people aged 80 and over – around six million people.

The rest of the priority list is made up of those aged between 50 and 80, extremely vulnerable individuals and all people aged 16 to 64 with underlying health conditions which put them at higher risk of mortality.

If sufficient vaccination can be achieved across these groups, 99 per cent of Covid-19 deaths will be prevented, according to JCVI.

The first round of vaccine doses is due to be administered to the general public tomorrow.

Roughly 800,000 doses of the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech, which has been shown to be 95 per cent effective in preventing disease, are to be distributed across the UK throughout next week.

It is hoped that up to five million doses – enough to vaccinate 2.5 million Britons – will eventually be made available by the end of the year, though the government has been reluctant to provide a definitive number.

The announcement comes as the UK’s official coronavirus death toll rose by 189, meaning 61,434 people have now died within 28 days of testing positive for the virus. A further 14,718 new cases were also reported yesterday, with the total number of identified infections nearing 1.75 million.

The government’s spokesperson stressed that the vaccines developed by Moderna and Oxford University were still being assessed by regulators, which could boost the UK’s supplies in the coming weeks.

In England, 50 hospitals have been chosen to serve as hubs for administering the Pfizer-BioNTech jab, though doses have already been transported to all four nations of the UK.

With limited quantities initially available, elderly people who are already attending hospital as an outpatient, as well as those who are being discharged after a hospital stay, will be among the first to receive the jab.

Should the failure to agree a trade deal with the European Union complicate the delivery of doses from the continent, supplies could be airlifted to the UK by the military, according to James Cleverly, a junior foreign office minister.

Transport between Britain and mainland Europe is likely to be severely disrupted if a deal with the EU is not agreed before transitional arrangements expire at the end of the year.

But Mr Cleverly said the UK’s vaccine supplies would get through whatever the circumstances.

“We have extensive plans in place to ensure the protection of our vaccines, that is absolutely the priority product,” he said on Monday.

“We’ve looked at the use of non-commercial flights, we have border arrangements in place.”

He said the military could be used and an airlift was included in plans “amongst other things”.

Downing Street did not deny that RAF flights could be used to transport the vaccine over from the continent if there were problems at ports caused by a no-deal Brexit.

The PM’s spokesperson would not comment on specific plans for "security reasons”, but added that “the military will have a role to play in what's been an enormous logistical challenge and I'm sure they will continue to do so as we move forward”.

Shadow armed forces minister Stephen Morgan separately warned that the armed forces “are already stretched” as he called upon the government to ensure these services are kept well-sourced during the nationwide rollout.

Defence minister James Heappey said there are 2,600 army personnel “deployed right now".

“The winter preparedness package is 13,500 people … and we’re confident that in generating that package, we have not in any way damaged the defence's ability to prepare for operations that are currently required, or indeed are required within the next six months or (more),” he told the House of Commons.

Meanwhile, confirmation has been provided by the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) that doses will be delivered directly into care homes, after initial concerns that elderly residents would have to be transported to vaccination sites to receive their jabs.

The government admitted last week that the nationwide rollout of the Pfizer vaccine poses a “mammoth logistical operation” owing to the freezing temperature at which it must be maintained, with supplies transported in 975-dose batches.

Care homes typically have dozens of residents: none have nearly a thousand. This means that if a batch is delivered to a care home then there would be a potential waste of precious vaccine stock.

However, the MHRA has now approved a method for breaking up these batches of doses into smaller quantities, allowing them to be transported into separate homes without fear of waste.

“Regulatory approvals required to proceed with the splitting up of packs have been put in place,” a spokesperson for the MHRA told The Independent. “We are working with NHS and their assemblers to help support them to implement the processes and training they need to have in place to meet our conditions.”

Companies licensed to assemble vaccine packs and some NHS hospitals with the appropriate facilities will break down the batches for shipment to care homes.

They have to do this in 2-8C cold rooms and then repack the supplies into refrigerated carriers that are then sent out to care homes.

The clock starts ticking as soon as the assemblers thaw the vials, the MHRA said. They have 12 hours to complete the “pack down”, label the boxes and get the vials to the mobile teams and into care homes.
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This was sourced from The Independent, by the way.
 
We’ve now had our first person vaccinated in the UK!


I think the beginning of the end may possibly be here...
P.S. Sorry for double posting!
 
Matt N said:
In a promising development, the government reckons that they can vaccinate a sufficient amount of the vulnerable by the end of February: https://apple.news/AGHDwHFdeQ4WaSkaOOZ7Gqg

A study has also been conducted, and it believes that once this happens, it will prevent 99% of COVID deaths.
Click to expand...

Over the past few days, I've been hearing contradictory stories about when the most vulnerable will be vaccinated and the covid restrictions will be lifted. They were saying that the covid vaccine would be rolled out by Easter for the most vulnerable, then a day or two ago they were reporting that Summer or autumn would be more realistic. Personally I would be very surprised if they roll this vaccine out to the most vulnerable by the end of February.

They still haven't rolled out the flu vaccine to all those that need it. I know many vulnerable people still waiting for theirs including Jess and me, and we are 3 months in from the start of the flu vaccine. The flu vaccine should have been the easiest compared to the covid vaccine to roll out. This year they have rolled out the flu vaccine by age. They say that you should get your flu vaccine before you have your covid vaccine and not at the same time, so this would explain why the elderly have been given their flu vaccine first and the rest of us are still waiting for ours. It's going to be a tall order to get the rest of the flu vaccines out alongside the covid one.
 
RoyJess said:
They still haven't rolled out the flu vaccine to all those that need it. I know many vulnerable people still waiting for theirs including Jess and me, and we are 3 months in from the start of the flu vaccine. The flu vaccine should have been the easiest compared to the covid vaccine to roll out. This year they have rolled out the flu vaccine by age. They say that you should get your flu vaccine before you have your covid vaccine and not at the same time, so this would explain why the elderly have been given their flu vaccine first and the rest of us are still waiting for ours. It's going to be a tall order to get the rest of the flu vaccines out alongside the covid one.
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I think the major issue is whether the person is in a care home, or can make their own way to the surgery.
Those in a care home should be straightforward, someone just goes round giving the vaccine.
If people can make it to the surgery they can get their vaccine (I did for flu due to Asthma)
But those such as Jess who can't go out are stuck waiting for the district nurse and I guess that varies dramatically around the country as to the availability of nurses for home visits.
 
RoyJess said:
Over the past few days, I've been hearing contradictory stories about when the most vulnerable will be vaccinated and the covid restrictions will be lifted. They were saying that the covid vaccine would be rolled out by Easter for the most vulnerable, then a day or two ago they were reporting that Summer or autumn would be more realistic. Personally I would be very surprised if they roll this vaccine out to the most vulnerable by the end of February.

They still haven't rolled out the flu vaccine to all those that need it. I know many vulnerable people still waiting for theirs including Jess and me, and we are 3 months in from the start of the flu vaccine. The flu vaccine should have been the easiest compared to the covid vaccine to roll out. This year they have rolled out the flu vaccine by age. They say that you should get your flu vaccine before you have your covid vaccine and not at the same time, so this would explain why the elderly have been given their flu vaccine first and the rest of us are still waiting for ours. It's going to be a tall order to get the rest of the flu vaccines out alongside the covid one.
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It will be a tall order to get both out, that said the Flu vaccine season will end in a few months with most people still social distancing and therefore lower risk of getting the Flu, so it might become an obsolete point by March.

The unclear timeline of when vulnerable vaccination will complete is due to not knowing which vaccines come online. If the Oxford vaccine is approved then Easter is a legitimate target, if it isn’t then you end up looking to the summer. I suspect the dosing issue with the Oxford vaccine is what is delaying approval as the standard dose is below 70% effectiveness but the half dose/ full dose was only given to a small number of young volunteers so they might want to wait for more data on that regime.
 
Personally can't believe that teachers and school staff aren't on the priority list at all.

Putting ourselves on the front line every day, with limited or no PPE, yet at the back if the queue.

Bizarre.
 
D4n said:
Personally can't believe that teachers and school staff aren't on the priority list at all.

Putting ourselves on the front line every day, with limited or no PPE, yet at the back if the queue.

Bizarre.
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I guess it's because your vulnerability is categorised by your age group, medical history and contact with infected, but not the profession you are in. Nurses are vulnerable not because they are nurses but because they are expected to be in contact with people who are infected.

In theory a teacher should not be in contact, as anyone with symptoms should not be at school. Of course in reality that's not the case because people can be carriers without knowing. But if we take that into account you could argue that anyone that is in contact with a group of people is at risk. That would include nearly every profession, not just teachers.
 
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Rolling out the vaccine is a nightmare of working out who will get it when. I bet if PHE had enough vaccine, resources, staff and facilities. They would do everyone straight away.
But alas this is not the case. Unfortunately

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I also think it depends on when they class everyone being vaccinated for the restrictions to be lifted, will it be after the first jab or the second jab or a week after the second jab? We all know how this government counted their PPE (each glove of each hand counted as 2 when it should have been 1) and testing (nose swab and mouth swab counted as 2 when it should have counted as 1) :rolleyes:

I doubt that everyone will receive their first jab by the end of February let alone the second jab.
 
RoyJess said:
I also think it depends on when they class everyone being vaccinated for the restrictions to be lifted, will it be after the first jab or the second jab or a week after the second jab? We all know how this government counted their PPE (each glove of each hand counted as 2 when it should have been 1) and testing (nose swab and mouth swab counted as 2 when it should have counted as 1) :rolleyes:

I doubt that everyone will receive their first jab by the end of February let alone the second jab.
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People won’t be classed as vaccinated until the 2nd jab. You never show completed on a vaccine record if you haven’t completed the course and Covid isn’t the only vaccine that is multi-dose to exist (loads are and some require 3 injections) so precedence will stand with this one.
 
However i can see the government trying to muddy the water by saying in vaccination process.

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