What makes you all believe that this park will not achieve its attendance targets?
For all we know, 6.5 million could be the projected number for its first full, 365-day year. Shanghai Disneyland managed to pull that in its first 5-6 months, so if you remove the Disney hype factor & China’s high population from the equation, then I’d personally say that a number just over half of what Shanghai Disneyland gets in a 365-day year sounds plausible if they do some very good marketing and put some brilliant stuff in, which from the concept art, it looks like they’re planning to.
12.5 million for the completed project is less than DLP gets in an average year (I think they got about 15 million overall in 2018?), and bear in mind that while DLP has the two parks, the hotels and the entertainment district, this project will also have a huge indoor water park, which DLP doesn’t; I’d assume that this water park could provide at least 1-2 million of the forecasted visitor figures depending on how big “Europe’s largest indoor water park” is planned to be. For reference, Therme’s planned Manchester water park project is forecasted to get 2 million guests a year, so if LER’s water park is a lot bigger, as they are making out, then it could potentially pull more visitors. I also think the entertainment district is planned to be at least the same size as DLP’s if not larger; it looks like they’re planning to build something pretty substantial.
I admit that 12.5 million for a two-park resort looks very ambitious on the face of it, and even 6.5 million for one theme park raises a few eyebrows. But if you break it down into all the different elements of this resort, then it sounds a little more plausible to me. Presuming this water park could pull 1-2 million visitors a year at least, and the entertainment district may well pull a few more visitors on its own, then that leaves you with a maximum figure of around 4-5 million for the initial theme park itself, which I don’t think sounds inplausible at all given that Alton Towers has pulled 2.5-3m on multiple occasions in the past (pre-Smiler crash, 2.5 million or slightly above was roughly an average yearly figure for the park). Looking at the EMEA section of the 2018 TEA report, even the upper end of my estimate at 5 million guests would only put the main park as 5th in Europe (behind Walt Disney Studios, Efteling, Europa Park and Disneyland Park Paris, in case you’re wondering). The bottom end of my estimate at 4 million would put it in 6th behind Tivoli Gardens as well as the 4 I just mentioned, and not a huge amount above PortAventura Park.
With regards to the location, it may not be brilliant for some Brits, but it’s worth remembering that London is by far Britain’s most populated area (roughly 7.6 million live in London, and I think that might only be the city), and the city also gets huge amounts of international tourism (20.42 million people visited London in 2018). With the international audience the park is aiming to appeal to as well as the domestic audience, I don’t think the numbers sound unattainable by any means provided adequate marketing and attractions for a Resort of this size are in place.