London Entertainment Resort: All Discussion

[Rob]

They did indeed, in 2014 and I went to one of the consultation events! Seems like this is going round in one big circle but the primary issue still remains, they need a tonne of cash to get anything built.

Obviously the whole project team has changed since 2014 but it is hard to see anything other than the same outcome.

 

[Benjsh]

Hmmm.



"Significant progress"? Don't think so.

Hahahahaha. What did I just watch? Who is he?

A lot of kids run these YouTube channels and they are pretty clueless to the real world. They have absolutely no concept of capital. This project has absolutely zero chance of happening. They don't have the money. They will need upwards of 2bn to create anything like they are proposing. How much have they got so far? Last time I heard it was £25m.

 

[Pleasure Beach Valhalla]

Hahahahaha. What did I just watch? Who is he?

A lot of kids run these YouTube channels and they are pretty clueless to the real world. They have absolutely no concept of capital. This project has absolutely zero chance of happening. They don't have the money. They will need upwards of 2bn to create anything like they are proposing. How much have they got so far? Last time I heard it was £25m.

He's a Uni student who seems to be up looking for the slightest rumour 24-7

 

[Matt N]

They’ve invested nearly £70m so far, and the thing that’s holding them back is apparently purchasing the land (they’ve gradually secured 80-85% of it so far). PY Gerbeau himself has said that they’re doing it as quickly as they physically can, and he himself has referenced people’s complaints about the slow pace of the project. He is confident that the project is on schedule. To be fair to him, he has a good reputation for turning around troubled projects, with both Disneyland Paris and the Millennium Dome on his CV. Although that being said, those projects were already up and running.

The budget has been cited as £3.2bn in some places, however I have also heard estimates as high as £5-6bn in others. As for where they’re getting capital from, a Kuwaiti investment firm is funding the resort, and they’re also getting £25m in additional funding from Keltbray, the firm who did the infrastructure for the London 2012 Olympics; where is this idea that they have no money coming from, out of interest?

I remain optimistic that the project will be delivered eventually in some form. Whether eventually will be 2024 or a later date, I wouldn’t like to guess. I admit, the rate at which they are investing money in doesn’t look too promising, as by my calculations, judging by the fact that £70m has been invested over 8 years since the announcement, the Resort won’t have had the full £3.2bn budget invested until 2378. However, this was pre-Gerbeau; he seems very motivated, and he’s been delving into far more specifics in the more recent press releases.

We’ll have to keep an eye out for this environmental report they’ve said they’ll have submitted by the 12th June, as well as the public consultations later in the year; I’m optimistic that we could potentially see planning permission be submitted later this year provided all goes smoothly.

 

[Vik]

Every time this 'Project' rears its ugly head I just assume they are running low on funds to pay themselves their salary and thus trying to drum up some support in order to raise more funds, and so continue ad infintum.....

 

[Matt N]

Very few theme parks are built from scratch and survive. Most are a gradual development of an existing attraction with existing infrastructure (zoos, gardens etc). Even Universal in Florida severely struggled until it got its hands on the Harry Potter IP.

This was never going to happen and is still never going to happen.

There have been many successful theme parks built from scratch; the Disney parks are one example, but they’re a pretty unique case, so I’ll discount them. But there are many other examples, such as PortAventura and Europa Park. I believe some of the original Six Flags parks were also built from scratch.

 

[Ian]

the Resort won’t have had the full £3.2bn budget invested until 2378.

And by then they still might have only just put a billboard advertising it as “Coming soon.” by the side of the M25.

It’s literally farcical at this point, but let’s not be under any illusion that this is completely out of the ordinary. These kind of long-drawn out pipe-dream ideas rear their heads in every sector, not just leisure. If even 50% of them had ever come to fruition the world would be a very different place.

I loose count of the number of proposed leisure venues and theme parks that have been announced before either vanishing off the face of the Earth, or opening as little more than a glorified shopping and entertainment centre like Star City or Resort World, which, lets be honest, is more than likely what this will turn into if anything does ever materialise.

If they haven’t been able to obtain significant funding and actually have something physical to show for it, that should make it blatantly obvious that there is little-to-no appetite for investors. It’s a notoriously risky sector, more so than ever now, and nothing that is happening with this project exactly inspires any confidence.

 

[Matt N]

Even if this doesn’t succeed, Therme Manchester still looks like a promising addition to the UK tourism sector; that has had planning permission filed (potentially even accepted, I think), is being built by a ready-established company and was announced right in the middle of the pandemic, so that one looks promising, even though it is a water park as opposed to a theme park!

Why is it that the UK seems to have so few of these projects materialise compared to other countries? The thing that makes me confident about this one, though, is that it’s been around for some time now. Most of these projects that aren’t successful tend to vanish after a year or so, but this one has been very persistent. PY Gerbeau and some of the other people behind the project have very good credentials in turning around troubled projects, so I think we should give them a chance. He’s only been on the project for less than a year, and has thus far completely overhauled it and set out a whole new agenda, as well as getting this to public consultation stages.

 

[Mr Pearse]

Still not convinced unfortunately. If anything was to be built or happen it would of by now. Large scale theme parks built from scratch are not worth the risk. I can’t think top of my head but would Oakwood be the last theme park to built from scratch in the uk?.

 

[RoyJess]

Still not convinced unfortunately.

Maybe this might help convince you

Spoiler

 

[Mr Pearse]

Maybe this might help convince you

Spoiler

Oh wow now I’m convinced. Where can I get a commemorative T-shirt from?.

 

[Matt N]

Y’know, 2020 has thus far been the year where things that people would never have thought possible happened, so maybe some of us will be pleasantly surprised later this year?

My point is; PY Gerbeau has not been on the team for long and seems to have quite drastically overhauled the project. Maybe we should give him and his team a chance?

 

[Craig]

So in terms of Therme Manchester, that's a considerably smaller project, and was actually announced pre pandemic. The planning was submitted in November last year, it's just the planning stage that's been approved this year in March. There's substantial infrastructure in place, and the location is already used as a leisure development so the footfall is already there.

It's also just 28 acres, whereas London Resort is planned to be some 30 times larger that that with no infrastructure in place, and no prepared land. Therme is replacing an existing building where land is already relatively well prepared, Swanscombe's heavy industry land...not so much. It's also costing a mere £250m compared to London Resort, which will almost certainly end up going considerably over budget.

Anyway, back to London Resort itself, and I simply cannot stress this enough. Do not take press releases at face value. Look at the wording in them, beneath the exciting headlines and phrases and you'll find they don't actually amount to a whole lot. Let's take a look at the most recent press release as an example:

3rd June 2020

Today, The London Resort announced it has taken four significant steps in its preparation to submit proposals later this year. Despite the massive disruption caused by COVID-19, The Resort’s expert team has maintained strong progress on its work and confirmed:

1. Proposals for a ‘late-summer / early autumn’ public consultation including online and ‘virtual’ engagement
   
   
2. Confirmed submission of a 300-page Environmental Scoping report by 12th June
   
   
3. Contacted advisors of affected local businesses, setting out terms for the acquisition of land including an additional premium
   
   
4. Written to the Community Liaison Group to help share information about the project
   

Look carefully at the words in red, there's no real substance to it:

• They're proposing to submit a public consultation, they still haven't done so.
• They're setting out terms for buying land, they haven't bought it. I could send a letter to Bob the mechanic and tell him my terms for buying his garage is a tenner and a mars bar. I've set out my terms, but it doesn't mean that he'll agree to them. If he does agree, I don't even have that tenner and a mars bar to give him anyway
• How do you help share information? Does that mean you've just let them know there's an e-mail address if they have questions? If it's a typo and they've actually sent them information, what information was shared?

Realistically, there is nothing that hasn't been repeated again and again over the past 8 years in that statement. It's the exact same stuff, intended to build excitement and get the press posting to attract attention but there's no new information and little has changed.

They’ve invested nearly £70m so far, and the thing that’s holding them back is apparently purchasing the land (they’ve gradually secured 80-85% of it so far).

Again this is where wording comes in. As far as I'm aware, the largest chunk of land is LaFarge's former cement works at about 388 acres. London Resort have only placed a downpayment of about £3m on the land at present which is held in escrow, not actually handed over to LaFarge until they actually buy it. That deal was agreed in 2015, and has actually had to be extended multiple times, but the land is only secured for them, not purchased.

As the holding companies for this park are still hiding behind small company account exemptions (amazing for a multi billion pound project!) it's difficult to get an idea of just how much land they've actually purchased. I'd assume the vast majority of it is just an agreement to purchase which landowners such as LaFarge are happy to sit on and extend for the moment. There's little demand for contaminated heavy industry land anyway so they may as well hold on in the hope that something will happen as there's not much else it'll be used for.

Away from the large chunks of land though, on the resort's Facebook page you'll see annoyance from exasperated local businesses located at the nearby Manor Way Business Park who were told they would be bought out, yet are being met with radio silence from the company. If they're unable to deal with small land/property owners, what hope do they have of actually completing the larger land deals?

they’re also getting £25m in additional funding from Keltbray, the firm who did the infrastructure for the London 2012 Olympics; where is this idea that they have no money coming from, out of interest?

That £25m is 0.71% of a £3.5bn budget, it's miniscule. However, as I've mentioned, the £25m funding was an intention to invest via a joint venture company called LR Keltbray JV (Holdings) Ltd. This company was dissolved last year with no money handed over. Keltbray no longer even mention the deal on their site, the only references to it are in trade publications and news articles. This begs the question, if they can't hold on to £25m of financing, what hope do they have of securing £3.5bn+.

There's been zero news of any sort of prospect of decent financing coming in. The last accounts for KEH Entertainments which only go up to 2018 stated they're being financed by their parent company KEHC, but only on a 12 month rolling basis. There is nothing saying they're going to be bankrolling this whole project whatsoever.

Why is it that the UK seems to have so few of these projects materialise compared to other countries? The thing that makes me confident about this one, though, is that it’s been around for some time now. Most of these projects that aren’t successful tend to vanish after a year or so, but this one has been very persistent.

This is the thing, the project hasn't really materialised. There's been very little in terms of actual substance. Save for a few public consultations and a couple of artist's impressions there been no actual major investment from anyone and no actual ground breaking at the site.

The only thing we're seeing is a merry-go-round of the same press releases and agreements with companies who promise to come on board yet silently disappear a year or two down the line. Remember IHG signing a deal? What happened to that for Radisson to come along and announce another deal? I still maintain the company is severely struggling to attract any sort of investment, and this current climate has made it substantially worse. What was already an immensely unlikely project is now looking pretty much impossible to achieve.

The press releases only serve one purpose, to drum up media attention in the project so that it can be used as a tool to attempt (yet again) to get some investors through the door. Considering how many times that trick has been pulled now, it's looking less and less likely that those investors will be forthcoming.

It's also telling that the press releases on their official site only go back to last year and various other bits of content have disappeared too. The simple reason for that is about 95% of what was released in the previous 6 years are promises and targets that weren't kept, and agreements with companies which have now decided they're better off spending their time and effort elsewhere.

My point is; PY Gerbeau has not been on the team for long and seems to have quite drastically overhauled the project. Maybe we should give him and his team a chance?

Whilst I have respect for PY being brought on board, what has actually been drastically overhauled since he came on board? All I see is a new website, a few announcements but again - nothing whatsoever of any real substance.

 

[Islander]

There have been many successful theme parks built from scratch; the Disney parks are one example, but they’re a pretty unique case, so I’ll discount them. But there are many other examples, such as PortAventura and Europa Park. I believe some of the original Six Flags parks were also built from scratch.

What counts as success? Because, financially, Disneyland Paris was anything but successful.

Europa Park wasn't built from scratch per-se, it grew organically really, as Dave inferred in his post.

 

[Matt N]

What counts as success? Because, financially, Disneyland Paris was anything but successful.

Europa Park wasn't built from scratch per-se, it grew organically really, as Dave inferred in his post.

By success, I mean generating healthy profits and healthy visitor figures.

For example, I believe that PortAventura has been getting relatively healthy visitor figures since it was first opened, and that was built ground up.

Also, what do you mean by “grew organically” in the case of Europa, as I thought it was always a theme park?

 

[Dave]

There have been many successful theme parks built from scratch; the Disney parks are one example, but they’re a pretty unique case, so I’ll discount them. But there are many other examples, such as PortAventura and Europa Park. I believe some of the original Six Flags parks were also built from scratch.

Europa park started as the gardens of Schloss Balthasar. The Macks bought it and built the park slowly over many years.

PA was built from scratch but in a very popular Spanish holiday area.

Disney is a different beast.

 

[Matt N]

Europa park started as the gardens of Schloss Balthasar. The Macks bought it and built the park slowly over many years.

PA was built from scratch but in a very popular Spanish holiday area.

Disney is a different beast.

Ah right; I never knew Europa was gardens initially! Thanks for the clarification @Dave!

 

[jon81uk]

What counts as success? Because, financially, Disneyland Paris was anything but successful.

Europa Park wasn't built from scratch per-se, it grew organically really, as Dave inferred in his post.

and Disneyland Paris only really suffered from a weird ownership structure and Michael Eisner insisting on overbuilding hotel capacity, forgetting that it’s a short train ride to Paris city. The park itself was broadly a success, although the resort struggled.

 

[AstroDan]

The Castle park. The beautiful heiroglyphics of nature. Johan Wolfgang Van Goethe would have felt right at home here. Europa-Park was founded at a time before America had even been discovered.

Unlike Paramount Park.

 

[Matt N]

Weren’t DLP’s struggles mostly down to the sheer amount of hotels they built and them not being able to fill them all?