Putin is just trying to create panic that's what these statements are about, The UK and US knew this war would start because of intelligence I think they probably know what Putin's next move is likely to be even if they don't say it publicly, if they start suggesting that then I'd be concerned.
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Russia vs NATO
- Thread starter GaryH
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Islander
TS Member
From what I can gather originally he said the sanctions were a declaration of war, now he's saying that it's a no fly zone that would mean that, which to me means we can infer that Putin is simply using this to create panic.
Matt N
TS Member
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Sorry, I was a little confused, as Gary’s last post said that Putin was quoted as saying that the sanctions were “akin to a declaration of war, but thank god it hasn’t come to that”, which would suggest that Putin does not consider the sanctions by themselves a declaration of war by NATO.
Islander
TS Member
I think it reads more that he said the sanctions are a declaration of war, but thank goodness he’s the level-headed one and hasn’t initiated war…
I mean, any which way, it’s clear that he’s prepared to say anything to instil fear
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This, absolutely this. Putin is trying to appear strong by making out like he is engaging in a war brought about by NATO. He doesn't actually want to be in a war with NATO because he would lose.
Ukraine is relatively low hanging fruit; they have no reciprocal alliance they can rely on for defence, their own military is outdated (more so even than Russia's). The partners who might have protected them have made absolutely clear they wouldn't (hence the 2 month stake out on the border).
The tree is bare after this, unless he wants to really test @JAperson 's theory that the EU would actually allow a member state to be invaded.
Again - none of this makes Putin's actions OK - it's geopolitical opportunism writ large which is despicable and should be something that ended 75 years ago.
The US is looking to escalate things by trying to pursue Poland to send fighter jets to Ukraine. Putin would see this I think as a red line crossed and no difference to a NATO no fly zone:
www.wsj.com
Blinken Says U.S. Is Eyeing Ways for Poland to Supply Jets to Ukraine
The U.S. government is looking for ways to replenish Poland’s arsenal should the country agree to provide some of its Soviet-era combat jets to Ukraine, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday made an impassioned plea to Capitol Hill for assistance
They want Poland to give them some fighter jets? Isn't that just giving them weapons something we are already doing. I think Germany has given Ukraine some Surface to air missles which Putin previously stated would mean direct war, I think you are almost falling for Putin's trick here, that's what he wants you to think. Remember the US and UK will now what Putin would really deem as a line as they likely have a few good intelligence source's in the Kremlin.The US is looking to escalate things by trying to pursue Poland to send fighter jets to Ukraine. Putin would see this I think as a red line crossed and no difference to a NATO no fly zone:
Blinken Says U.S. Is Eyeing Ways for Poland to Supply Jets to Ukraine
The U.S. government is looking for ways to replenish Poland’s arsenal should the country agree to provide some of its Soviet-era combat jets to Ukraine, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday made an impassioned plea to Capitol Hill for assistance
And Russia just responded:
Poland is saying it is fake news and they won’t supply planes and I hope it stays that way. Russia will attack Poland, which is in NATO, and there we go…
"The use of the airfield networks of these countries to base Ukrainian military aircraft and their subsequent use against the Russian armed forces may be regarded as the involvement of these states in an armed conflict," Interfax news agency quoted Igor Konashenkov as saying.
Poland is saying it is fake news and they won’t supply planes and I hope it stays that way. Russia will attack Poland, which is in NATO, and there we go…
Russia warns any country offering airfields to Ukraine would be entering conflict
Russia has warned that any country offering its airfields to Ukraine for attacks on its forces may be considered as having entered the conflict, a Russian defence ministry spokesperson has said."The use of the airfield networks of these countries to base Ukrainian military aircraft and their subsequent use against the Russian armed forces may be regarded as the involvement of these states in an armed conflict," Interfax news agency quoted Igor Konashenkov as saying.
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But according to Putin this isn’t a conflict it’s a special military operation.
Poland is a NATO country and Putin knows what attacking a NATO country will bring, almost instant defeat.
It’s just empty threats to try and keep the west from helping Ukraine to much, in the end China doesn’t want WW3 or a Nuclear conflict so it won’t happen.
It’s very telling that China have been very quiet about all of this, they don’t have Putin’s back like he thought they would and on its own Russia are not a military force.
Poland is a NATO country and Putin knows what attacking a NATO country will bring, almost instant defeat.
It’s just empty threats to try and keep the west from helping Ukraine to much, in the end China doesn’t want WW3 or a Nuclear conflict so it won’t happen.
It’s very telling that China have been very quiet about all of this, they don’t have Putin’s back like he thought they would and on its own Russia are not a military force.
KolonelKlink
TS Member
Gary, we don’t know each other and have never spoken, but you’ve seriously got to calm down, I’m not sure how you manage to get up in the morning in the moment given your apparent sky high anxiety levels.
For younger members of this forum, Russia making belligerent statements about and against the West is far from a new phenomenon that suddenly began a couple of weeks ago - this has been going on for years. Have a quick Google of the past statements made by foreign affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova - she’s been spitting bullets for as long as I can remember.
The fact Putin’s nuclear threat level change was pinned to a fairly innocuous comment by Liz Truss of all people proves the ludicrous nature of Moscow’s posturing. It is just that, posturing and baiting in the hope the West will back off and turn a blind eye to an illegal invasion of a sovereign state.
Said invasion is a very concerning development, and the international community is right to treat it as seriously as it is. There is, however, an enormous gulf between the current situation and the world-ending catastrophe some are sure is a nailed-on certainty.
Keep calm, observe with caution, don’t go to bed thinking you’re about to be obliterated - you’re not.
Matt N
TS Member
- Favourite Ride
- Shambhala (PortAventura Park)
I hope the less concerned are right, and there’s a good chance that they could be yet, but the thing that concerns me is that @GaryH seems to know his stuff, and he was also right about COVID when no one said it would amount to anything… I remember his posts in 2020 warning us all about COVID were dismissed by many as being overly panicky, but he did eventually turn out to be right.
I am quite concerned about it, personally, although I don’t have the years of experience of living through war threats and missile crises that some others on this forum do… this is the first real WW3/nuclear threat there’s been in my memorable lifetime (I could have been alive when the Iraq invasion happened, but I’m not 100% sure there), and I am very scared about what it could become. I’m less anxious than I was possibly a week ago, as Russia’s progress through Ukraine seems to have starkly slowed and not been as rapid as first feared, but I am still quite anxious. All the talk of WW3 and nuclear bombs isn’t helping, I’ll admit… the prospect of nuclear war doesn’t fill me with joy.
I do hope you’re OK though, Gary… a search of posts you’ve made suggests that you haven’t posted anything non-Russia related in nearly a month. Is it weighing on your mind a lot?
I am quite concerned about it, personally, although I don’t have the years of experience of living through war threats and missile crises that some others on this forum do… this is the first real WW3/nuclear threat there’s been in my memorable lifetime (I could have been alive when the Iraq invasion happened, but I’m not 100% sure there), and I am very scared about what it could become. I’m less anxious than I was possibly a week ago, as Russia’s progress through Ukraine seems to have starkly slowed and not been as rapid as first feared, but I am still quite anxious. All the talk of WW3 and nuclear bombs isn’t helping, I’ll admit… the prospect of nuclear war doesn’t fill me with joy.
I do hope you’re OK though, Gary… a search of posts you’ve made suggests that you haven’t posted anything non-Russia related in nearly a month. Is it weighing on your mind a lot?
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@Matt N - I wouldn’t say I know my stuff. My job is an analyst, I read a lot about stuff, analyse it, dig more, and sometimes to my detriment as I will focus on it maybe too much.
As for posting on this all the time, two reasons : it’s still closed season and Covid is a bit boring now!
Think I will take a break from the news for a while! Not like we can do anything about it anyway.
As for posting on this all the time, two reasons : it’s still closed season and Covid is a bit boring now!
Think I will take a break from the news for a while! Not like we can do anything about it anyway.
Matt N
TS Member
- Favourite Ride
- Shambhala (PortAventura Park)
Fair enough; that makes sense. So are your posts just your personal analysis on the situation based on what you see and hear, as opposed to because you have intel?
I guess that’s true; now that COVID has become all but endemic in the UK, I guess there is a geopolitical news void to fill in that regard! I had hoped that the news wouldn’t be filled with another crisis, though…
That’s probably a good idea. I find I feel better when I don’t read about Ukraine/Russia as much. I won’t lie, this thread being bumped fills me with a pang of dread every time…
Not intel as such only the military have intel but I read a lot of different sources, listen to various people on bbc radio and other sources and maybe the occasional news night if there is nothing else on tv. I don’t tend to watch the news though weirdly, I just prefer to read from all the sources online in real time. Never before has there been a war like this with real time reporting!
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