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Russia vs NATO

Matt N said:
Do we think there would be any senior Russians against nuclear strikes who would deny the order if it were to be called? Is it even possible to deny an order from Vladimir Putin without suffering?
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Yes, if he were to attempt to launch a nuclear attack the military would quite quickly arrest him for being insane. The military is by far the most powerful institution and they would have the strength to remove him when and if they so choose.
Matt N said:
Also, would it be Putin himself pressing the button in the event of a nuclear strike, or would one of his officials be ordered to do it on his behalf?
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The nuclear button doesn't exist, there isn't just a button on Putins desk that he pushes and it fires. There a complicated structure but effectively the nuke is launched from wherever it is based. For example if it were on a submarine then there'd be a control panel which would require significant clearance that would launch a nuke.
 
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Reading the Russian doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons, there are 4 possible reasons Russia would nuclear weapons.

The one with really concerns me is the one which says they can be used if “the existence of Russia is being threatened”. With all the sanctions, and isolation, if I were Russian I would say it’s existence is definitely being threatened right now.
 
GaryH said:
Reading the Russian doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons, there are 4 possible reasons Russia would nuclear weapons.

The one with really concerns me is the one which says they can be used if “the existence of Russia is being threatened”. With all the sanctions, and isolation, if I were Russian I would say it’s existence is definitely being threatened right now.
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but it really isn't, the existence of the current regime is being threatened but not all the military support it anyway. I do think you are overthinking this whole nuclear thing, this is very unlikely to go into a nuclear war because of lots of different factors never mind MAD.
 
GaryH said:
When you say MAD are you referring to Putin or mutual assured destruction? 😂
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BOTH lol

GaryH said:
I’ll be honest with you, there are just two things that really concern me:

1. Vanessa Felps in Lycra
2. Nuclear war
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Think you need to chill out about both of these :tearsofjoy:
I am slightly worried by your seemingly unstoppable view of nuclear war (I for one really hope you are wrong)
On another more light-hearted note just found this GIF
Putin Ukraine GIF by Tilis

As much as it's funny I hope it's true.
 
Russian nuclear submarines and mobile ICBM launchers have left their bases for “drills”

I order if that is the same terminology Putin used for “drills” when he said the troops in Belarus were just training….

apnews.com

Russia holds drills with nuclear subs, land-based missiles

Russian nuclear submarines have sailed off for drills in the Barents Sea and mobile missile launchers are roaming snow forests in Siberia after President Vladimir Putin ordered his nation’s nuclear forces put on high alert.
apnews.com apnews.com
 
GaryH said:
Russian nuclear submarines and mobile ICBM launchers have left their bases for “drills”

I order if that is the same terminology Putin used for “drills” when he said the troops in Belarus were just training….

apnews.com

Russia holds drills with nuclear subs, land-based missiles

Russian nuclear submarines have sailed off for drills in the Barents Sea and mobile missile launchers are roaming snow forests in Siberia after President Vladimir Putin ordered his nation’s nuclear forces put on high alert.
apnews.com apnews.com
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The clue here though is ICBM, these are intercontinental ballistic missiles, they don’t need to manoeuvre these assets to launch a nuclear attack, they have enough nukes in range of the entirety of NATO at all times.

This is waving at NATO going “I have nukes”, America is still not really worried at the moment about attacks on NATO with nuclear weapons. Putin has some nasty none nuclear weapons he can use in the Ukraine still and he isn’t yet cornered enough to go full crazy with the nuclear weapons.

What he probably wants is America to reveal their hand, Biden has been very quiet about military readiness of America, now right wing commentators in America are getting a bit grumpy about that but holding those plans close to their chest is key at the moment (America could be on its highest nuclear alert and they wouldn’t likely announce it), Putin wants to get them to speak up.
 
Matt N said:
In an interesting turn, a Russian businessman is now offering a $1million bounty to any Russian military officer who arrests Vladimir Putin for war crimes, whether he’s dead or alive: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-putin-bounty-b2027186.html

I wonder whether this might spur anyone within the Kremlin to take action against Putin?
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Who knows. I imagine most the people powerful enough will already be qutr rich but a little extra incentive might well push a plan through.
 
generally it’s reported that Putin is isolating himself and only a very small group of trusted supporters are allowed near him so I think the chance of assassination is very slim. Unless the Russian army in its entirety turn against him and storm the Kremlin.
 
I don’t see him being overthrown anytime soon when you read the press reports from the discussions of the Russian security council today. He is surrounded by hard liners hand picked by himself who share his beliefs. As the head of intelligence said we are now in a “hot war” with Russia not a cold one and that the west was out to destroy Russia. Dangerous words indeed.

The people won’t be able to overthrow him, they won’t be able to get near the Kremlin. The only chance would be the military but even that’s remote at the moment, most of them are out in Ukraine.

How do people see this war ending. The only way I can see it to end is to talk. Ukrainian President wants to speak to Putin, not sure that will happen, but the only way I see this ending is of Ukraine joins the EU but does not join NATO.

However that then leaves a new problem where Russia has threatened Sweden and Finland the same fate if they join NATO.

Edit: little bit of hope, the nuclear hotline phone has been activated.

news.sky.com

Ukraine war latest: Kremlin issues nuclear policy statement after Biden decision

The Kremlin says it has adapted its nuclear doctrine and that the changes will be "formalised as necessary" - as Moscow issues a fresh signal of its displeasure over Washington's decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied missiles for strikes deep into Russia.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
 
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He might consider invading Finland but Sweden no chance, Sweden has no land border with Russia and Putin doesn’t have enough naval power to launch an assault against Sweden.
I actually think he now has two options basically, tone down in Ukraine, retreat to the areas he has captured and then try and negotiate a release of the most hard hitting sanctions or do something completely stupid to try and bring NATO into the war.
NATO would walk straight through the Russian army as we have now seen how out of date and hopeless it really is so that would just be stupid, but we are now dealing with an increasingly irrational person who believes his own lies.
I was going to say human but this guy has proven he isn’t that.
 
To be honest I can see this war lasting a long time, talking 5 to 10 years. The Ukrainian's aren't going to give up, they've made that clear, as long as we (as in NATO) keep supplying them with weapons and cash they'll keep fighting. Putin cannot withdraw from Ukrainian and risk being seen as weak and removed, long term he also can't stay in Ukrainian because the Russian military will have enough and remove him (but that might take years). I really don't think we can speculate how it's going to end and doing so is very tricky at this stage.
 
BigT said:
I agree it’s hard to speculate but some of us have been on these threads long enough to remember @delta79 risk board and that legendary post some years ago.
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I am glad someone does. I really should find it.

Sent from my SM-A217F using Tapatalk
 
JAperson said:
To be honest I can see this war lasting a long time, talking 5 to 10 years. The Ukrainian's aren't going to give up, they've made that clear, as long as we (as in NATO) keep supplying them with weapons and cash they'll keep fighting. Putin cannot withdraw from Ukrainian and risk being seen as weak and removed, long term he also can't stay in Ukrainian because the Russian military will have enough and remove him (but that might take years). I really don't think we can speculate how it's going to end and doing so is very tricky at this stage.
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Yeah, I can't see this being something that ends overnight. Ukraine has shown strong resistance, Putin is stubborn and the West won't stop supporting the effort to push Russian into isolation. No one is giving way in this conflict.
 
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