Just to reassure some who may be nervous, and some who may have thought that WW3 has broken out as a result of these strikes (I fell into that category upon seeing the news…), I found this interesting Twitter thread that talks about how the news today, while of course terrible, does
not equal WW3 by any means:
Essentially, the writer talks about how the whole “an attack on one NATO country is an attack on all” saying that’s always thrown around is a referring to
Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which says the following:
Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty said:
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.
Whether or not Article 5 is invoked depends on Poland and what they wish to do, as well as the other NATO members. The North Atlantic Council meets and discusses the issue, and they determine the appropriate response. It should be noted that the language of article 5 states “if such an armed attack occurs, each of them… will assist… by taking forthwith… such action
as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force”. This means that there’s a lot of ambiguity in the article that means that NATO does not have to provide an armed response to this attack. The writer of the thread suggests that if Article 5 were to be invoked, a response could be something such as the imposition of a no-fly zone given how comparatively “minor” the attack on NATO was.
Article 5 has been invoked before. The time it was previously invoked was by the USA following 9/11, and the response was the deployment of Operation Eagle Assist, where NATO aircraft patrolled the skies over the USA in the months following 9/11.
I know that’s a lot, but my basic point is; the events of today
will likely not lead to wider war on their own, to reassure anyone worried.