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Russia vs NATO

A lot of weight stands on the Ukraine counter-offensive at the moment. I cannot see any direct NATO involvement unless the offensive fails and Russia quickly regains control of more land. Even then, I don't feel NATO/the West will do anything unless Kyiv falls.

NATO's main priority is to ensure this war stays contained in Ukraine. So far, they probably feel like enough is being done.

There's understandably an air of caution and NATO/Western countries will want to ensure their land is prepared for defence/a bigger war. It's difficult to justify using your own money/time/resources without compromising your own capabilities, hence why talks of air support/providing F-16s is a very drawn out/complicated affair at present.
 
James said:
A lot of weight stands on the Ukraine counter-offensive at the moment. I cannot see any direct NATO involvement unless the offensive fails and Russia quickly regains control of more land. Even then, I don't feel NATO/the West will do anything unless Kyiv falls.

NATO's main priority is to ensure this war stays contained in Ukraine. So far, they probably feel like enough is being done.

There's understandably an air of caution and NATO/Western countries will want to ensure their land is prepared for defence/a bigger war. It's difficult to justify using your own money/time/resources without compromising your own capabilities, hence why talks of air support/providing F-16s is a very drawn out/complicated affair at present.
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It’s also worth folk remember that NATO is primarily a defensive alliance, it doesn’t supply weapons, it’s individual countries doing that. It also only defends us own members.

Add on to that the fact you cannot join NATO if you are already in a conflict then it’s not really going to be the short term solution for Ukraines problems.
 
GaryH said:
Awful scenes in Ukraine after Russia blew up the dam. Heartbreaking what those prime are enduring.

I think they have to do something soon before the nuclear power plant becomes a disaster much worse than Chernobyl.
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The aftermath of the dam destruction, well i don't know if i should say sickening or heartbreaking.
A lot of public have been affected by this.

The IAEA needs to use offices in Russia to agree a nuclear plant protection areas.
If they can get putin to agree to make no bomb zone to safeguard all nuclear power plants required infrastructure. And allow repair of currently damaged infrastructure. Otherwise i can see one or more world powers taking steps to stop a major nuclear incident.

Another thought i am having is. What is happening within Russian circles. Has this damage to nuclear safety infrastructure going to cause rifts within Russia chain of command.
Has this attack on the dam signed putins assassination orders.

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I don’t think it’s signed his assassination orders yet….. but I do believe he is getting less and less popular within the inner circles and with the Russian elite.

If the power plants has a meltdown which I pray it does not, then I think that will be his death warrant signed. NATO have said if radioactive fall out affects NATO countries then they may deem it an attack.

Hopefully the wind direction will blow it over Russia and not Europe.
 
Assassination orders and death warrants?
By who exactly?
Putin is surrounded by his own crooks and cronies, who have little, if nothing, to gain by regime change.

Strange thing war.
Dambusters...
Haven't we cheered on the killing of innocent civilians in dam bombing raids in the past?
We even managed to kill quite a few Ukranian prisoners of war in that particular wave of bombings.
All depends on which side you are looking from I suppose.
The answer to war is discussion, sanctions and reason... further acts of aggression only escalate matters.
 
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Maybe it's about time Ukraine hired a mercenary army of foreigners of its own, just like Russia has been using all the way through (the West construct an army and just call it a band of mercenaries, fair is fair). Or better still, the West use some of the funds we've been giving Ukraine to pay off Putin's mercenary army to turn on him and start fighting against him from the inside (Wagner Group). That's the thing with armies that fight for money, I suppose everybody has a price. I'm just waffling.
 
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You're not far off from what's happened, @BarryZola. I'm not sure if this is a good thing or not but Wagner Group have vowed to topple the Russian military leaders:

www.bbc.com

Wagner chief vows to topple Russian military leaders

Yevgeny Prigozhin says his fighters have crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia.
www.bbc.com

The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group has vowed to "go all the way" to topple Russia's military leadership, hours after the Kremlin accused him of "armed rebellion".

Yevgeny Prigozhin said his Wagner fighters had crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia, entering the city of Rostov-on-Don. Mr Prigozhin said his men would destroy anyone who stood in their way.
 
A stopped clock and all that ;)

This bloke likes war even more than Putin, but this certainly does not looks good for those in power, with every private jet in Moscow suddenly in international air space or landing in Turkey. Prigozhin has had a fascinating rise to power, gradual and very Russian. He met Putin as he owned a restaurant he frequented in the nineties, and eventually became the chief private caterer to the country's government facilities. Maybe he could replace Aramark next?
 
This reads as a potential great way of the war coming to an end, or at least descaling significantly. Seems they are trying to take over the military while at the same time undermining the Russian invasion itself. If they get that control they have already laid a path to end it. Without them can the Russians meaningfully continue their operations?

Intersting times. Probably the most dangerous times too, depending how cornered Putin and the military feel. At least as this comes from the inside it shouldn't lend itself so much to lashing out at others with nukes.
 
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Watching this very closely, they are not that far from Moscow by all accounts. Putin will probably hide in his bunker with the rest of his cronies. His conscripted army will probably side with Wagner and turn on Putin.

My concerns however are who will replace Putin should he be removed from power.
 
It’s all over, Wagner have retreated and it’s leader is going to Belarus where all charges of treason will be dropped.
 
GaryH said:
It’s all over, Wagner have retreated and it’s leader is going to Belarus where all charges of treason will be dropped.
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Do you really think it is that simple?
Oh Wagner and the Russian leaders sorted it out over beer and sandwiches.
Not quite.
It isn't all over by a very long way!
 
All very weird. Looks like a very public bit of bluff calling against the lack of equipment and support the front line are receiving in Ukraine. If that's something Putin is willing or able to react to this could ultimately be very bad for Ukraine and the resources they are fighting against.
 
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It all looks very staged to me.
The first casualty of war is truth.
Dodgy soviet era eastern manipulation strikes again.
Maskirovka never retreats.
 
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Reports I’ve been reading suggest he was expecting other forces and the Russian army to rise up and join him but they didn’t. There was a meeting yesterday between a senior member of the Russian military and Wagner where the deal was struck to go into exile.

His forces must feel pretty cheesed off though, maybe there will be an uprising in the ranks who knows, but it appears this particular one has gone flat.

Edit just thinking, the president of Belarus is unwell, maybe Putin has done a deal to replace him with Prigozhin. Who knows.
 
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Pretends To Be Shocked Fake Shock GIF by AIDES
 
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