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Russia vs NATO

Apologies; I was just anxious last night because everyone seemed to be working on the assumption that Russia fired the missiles into Poland, and I heard people saying about how “WW3 is nigh”… I’m quite glad I found that Twitter thread.
 
Matt N said:
Apologies; I was just anxious last night because everyone seemed to be working on the assumption that Russia fired the missiles into Poland, and I heard people saying about how “WW3 is nigh”… I’m quite glad I found that Twitter thread.
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Don't worry Matt, it isn't imminent. Although the situation and the war itself is serious, there's a lot of sensationalist scaremongering out there. I'm quite appalled by how some media outlets reported this and your anxiousness proves what effect this can have on people.

If you listen carefully to the way they phrased it, they left a little bit of wiggle room to back track inserting words like "alleged" and "probable" every few sentences. But this was mainly reported as a slam dunk that Russia had done this. Very irresponsible from a number of news agencies (particularly Sky and ITN) since there was no evidence at the time and it was always a possibility that it was a stray Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile defending yesterday's bombardment.
 
Matt.GC said:
If you listen carefully to the way they phrased it, they left a little bit of wiggle room to back track inserting words like "alleged" and "probable" every few sentences. But this was mainly reported as a slam dunk that Russia had done this. Very irresponsible from a number of news agencies (particularly Sky and ITN) since there was no evidence at the time and it was always a possibility that it was a stray Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile defending yesterday's bombardment.
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Indeed, many of the front page headlines today were very matter of fact about it, even though we were far from having all of the facts at the time of print. But news is not about facts these days, it is about what sells, generates clicks, and makes money.
 
Prior to last night’s news, I actually thought that the situation in Ukraine seemed to be improving a little, as Putin has now pulled troops out of Kherson and I did hear that some sort of talks were being proposed by the West.

That was undermined by Putin’s substantial bombing of some cities in Ukraine yesterday, though.
 
I did too @Matt N - but Russia won’t give up. I am encouraged however that talks are finally taking place between the US and Russia.

Every war always end with negotiations, and this one will be no different. The sooner the better.
 
Not been much chat in here lately but things seem to be changing at a rapid pace over the past few weeks. NATO allies have changed from providing defensive weapons to now offensive, and now even talk of fighter jets from the UK and Poland.

I couldn't help but feel watching Zelensky walking into Parliament and No10 yesterday with everyone clapping and patting him on the back just a bit cringe, and a bit worrying in that no one there is questioning how providing jets could spark something truely much bigger (as Russia is warning today). Anyone who dares now question the path of this conflict and the support being provided is labelled a Putin sympathiser in the same way anyone who questioned the covid policy was frowned upon.

Politicians this morning on the radio are openly admitting that this might now turn into a wider war with jets being the red line for Russia - then we have to grow a backbone and just deal with it. And we had the Chinese surveillance balloon over the US missile sites last week shot down which has increased tensions with China.

Should we continue to escalate things and go to war with Russia/China, or should we stop, and try to get a peace deal, if that's even possible? And should we be sending warplanes to Ukraine (if that's even possible given how much training is needed). If there was a wider war, would NATO stick together, we already see some cracks with Turkey and Hungary.

What are your thoughts?
 
I don’t feel sending jets would escalate the war any further. Russia have used this rhetoric of ‘sending x will result in consequences’ throughout the war, from when missiles were sent by the West through to tanks being sent to Ukraine announced recently. If anything the lack of escalation displayed by Russian shows how weak they are at this point.

As long as Ukraine continue to use Western supplies purely in a defensive manner and to regain their own land, it’s unlikely the war will escalate any further.

There is certainly a degree of caution across the West more recently, in terms of not wanting to to deplete or weaken their own military supplies/defence, in fear of Russia looking beyond Ukraine. I personally don’t feel we’re at that point yet.

At the moment, it all hangs in the balance of what Russias spring offensive looks like and how that pans out. Either way I can see this war continuing to drag on in Ukraine.
 
Putin has spent over 2 decades playing the urge for diplomacy and fears of the west like a harp. He makes threats he doesn't follow through with, but then does things he never even threatened in the first place. Any decisions on air craft supply will be intelligence led, not taking Putin's word for it.
 
Putins main problem is he has shown the world how weak his military is, and he’s massively depleted it in Ukraine.

He will keep threatening but all he really has left are WMD’s but if he uses them he gives the west the excuse they need to engage with Russia and then one of two outcomes occurs, Russia loses a conventional war or we have all out nuclear war and I’m not totally convinced that his generals would permit that level of escalation.
 
Some weird news going around at the moment


We had the Chinese spy balloon last week and the. Since Friday the US has shot down 3 unidentified objects two shot down yesterday over North America and Canada.

They won’t say what they are just that it’s a cylinder shape about the size of a small car with no identifiable propulsion system.

Within the last 10 minutes China has announced it is tracking an unidentified object which has now entered its airspace near a military base.

Are aliens now looking to get involved in the war or is this gaslighting by the major powers? Russia has said they are going to do something on the 24th to get the worlds attention….. have they got aliens as allies?
 
Talk of the Uk sending jets to Ukraine is just nonsense, we only have Typhoon and F35, Typhoon is for air to air combat so doesn’t offer any ground cover and there is zero chance we will sent them any 5th Gen F35 fighters.
 
To be honest I think the talk of fighter jets was to panic Russia into mobilising it’s next offensive sooner than they would like.

Ukraine actually have a decent number of fighter jets (if a little old), Russia haven’t engaged in air to air combat as the anti aircraft systems the west have given Ukraine actually make it very risky.
 
Another UFO just shot down over Lake Huron which I think it’s between Canada and USA. Places have been up for hours looking for it apparently. What the heck are these things?!
 
GaryH said:
Another UFO just shot down over Lake Huron which I think it’s between Canada and USA. Places have been up for hours looking for it apparently. What the heck are these things?!
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Well almost certainly some of them will now be pranksters floating balloons to get the Airforce to react.

There is only one reason to fly spy balloons and that’s to get audio recordings from the ground as it’s the one thing satellites can’t do. All military and sensitive zones are on high alert so there is no benefit doing this anymore. That leaves provocation which is possible or copycat tricksters.
 
Awful scenes in Ukraine after Russia blew up the dam. Heartbreaking what those prime are enduring. Apparently some NATO states are considering putting their troops in Ukraine, led by Poland.

Whilst this will lead to a direct conflict with Russia I think it’s becoming inevitable now that the western powers have to get more involved to end this. While Russia will make its usual threats I think eventually they will be forced out of Ukraine, Putin will be assassinated and then the peace talks will begin.


I think they have to do something soon before the nuclear power plant becomes a disaster much worse than Chernobyl.
 
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GaryH said:
Awful scenes in Ukraine after Russia blew up the dam. Heartbreaking what those prime are enduring. Apparently some NATO states are considering putting their troops in Ukraine, led by Poland.

Whilst this will lead to a direct conflict with Russia I think it’s becoming inevitable now that the western powers have to get more involved to end this. While Russia will make its usual threats I think eventually they will be forced out of Ukraine, Putin will be assassinated and then the peace talks will begin.


I think they have to do something soon before the nuclear power plant becomes a disaster much worse than Chernobyl.
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Agree it seems Poland is keen to dive in, but if NATO stopped pissing about, started building more kit and giving the Ukrainians a lot lot more, they wouldn’t need to send any troops.

The amount of tanks is truly pitiful and shows the war chest in the west is at an all time low and given the big red machine rising in the east, South America, India and the Middle East we can’t carry on the way we are
 
Ash said:
Agree it seems Poland is keen to dive in, but if NATO stopped pissing about, started building more kit and giving the Ukrainians a lot lot more, they wouldn’t need to send any troops.

The amount of tanks is truly pitiful and shows the war chest in the west is at an all time low and given the big red machine rising in the east, South America, India and the Middle East we can’t carry on the way we are
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America depends on air superiority for its military might it’s why it has massively invested in both the airforce and the navy. Unless Canada decides to invade it’s never going to have to defend a land invasion and for foreign operations it doesn’t want to enter into trench warfare. Pretty similar picture for the UK. Most of the tanks sent to Ukraine came from mainland Europe.
 
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