Russia vs NATO

GaryH

TS Member
Personally I think it willneed to be stronger than that. We’ve been doing that for 7 months. Use of a nuclear weapon is a whole different ball game. If the west does nothing then we will look weak.
 

Matt.GC

TS Member
Personally I think it willneed to be stronger than that. We’ve been doing that for 7 months. Use of a nuclear weapon is a whole different ball game. If the west does nothing then we will look weak.
But again a very hypothetical question that's been debated ever since the Americans bombed Hiroshima, yet nearly 70 years later no one has the answer to it.

There's still no reason to think that a sudden escalation of a nuclear nature is closer that it was a week or 2 ago.
 

GaryH

TS Member
Quite amusing news today from the Kremlin.

So the 4 territories annexed of which Ukraine has reclaimed parts of….. although the Russian government were officially signing the paperwork today, they are now going to consult the “locals” of each region to ask them where they think the borders will be!

So they have annexed regions every don’t control, not know where the borders are!

 

GaryH

TS Member
There's still no reason to think that a sudden escalation of a nuclear nature is closer that it was a week or 2 ago.

Times are reporting the “nuclear train” has been spotted moving through Russia towards the Ukraine border.


Meanwhile NATO is searching for a nuclear armed Russian sun which has disappeared from its base 2 days ago in the artic circle believed to be armed with Poseidon nuclear drone torpedos.


Does this mean a nuclear war? No I don’t believe so. But I expect we will see the firing of a nuclear weapon somewhere in an open space, perhaps in the sea, in the next few weeks with Putin hoping the detonation will scare the west and Ukraine into backing down.

Escalate to de-escalate (as Putin cited the USA doing against Japan in 1945). Is the only thing Putin has left. Hopefully China will start to distance itself from Russia should they detonate such a weapon, after all, its main customers and source of income are the west!
 

Alsty

TS Member
Favourite Ride
Shambhala
In what can only be described as a significant escalation, the only bridge between Crimea and Russia has been destroyed. We're not quite sure who was responsible but this will be a big set back for Russia.

 

Matt N

TS Member
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Mako (SeaWorld Orlando)
On a promising note, a senior UK government source, as well as numerous other military analysts, are suggesting that the Ukraine counter offensive is moving at such a rate that the war could be “over by Christmas”, with Ukraine having pushed Russian forces out of the Donbas and retaken all of their territory by the end of the year: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/20044327/ukraine-war-over-by-christmas-russian-army-total-collapse/
(I apologise, as I know some people don’t like The Sun, but the other sources, including The Times, were all behind a paywall.)

I know that “over by Christmas” is a familiar line from WW1, but this is not simply being said as propaganda by the government… this is agreed upon by multiple government sources and military analysts who have intelligence regarding the situation on the ground in Ukraine.

These analysts really think that Russia’s move has backfired to such an extent, and that Ukraine is pushing back so brilliantly, that Ukraine could have won the war by the end of 2022.
 

rob666

TS Member
The only person who can stop this war is Putin.
He can keep going for as long as he can keep going!
The western economists are willing and wishing and end to the war, as their economy and energy markets are still dependent on rusky energy supplies, and OPEC hasn't helped one bit in recent days.
 

WillPS

TS Member
The only person who can stop this war is Putin.
He can keep going for as long as he can keep going!
The western economists are willing and wishing and end to the war, as their economy and energy markets are still dependent on rusky energy supplies, and OPEC hasn't helped one bit in recent days.
This is the grim truth. There is a long history of Russia endlessly chucking people at war efforts.

One of the figures I often refer to help put that in to perspective - a total of 450,900 UK lives were lost in the course of World War II.

The Soviets lost a total of 790,000 in the Battle of Stalingrad alone. At one stage they appeared to the world to be utterly defeated in that city but regained control by chucking more human life at it until the axis ran out themselves.
 

GaryH

TS Member
Rumour is there is infighting taking place in the Russian military and FSB and apparently the truck was Russian owned. Might have been set off by the Russians not Ukraine …..
 

GaryH

TS Member
Taken from Sky News this evening :

Russia 'ready to negotiate with Ukraine'

While Russia has insisted for some time that it is keen to enter into negotiations with Ukraine, the news of its imminent withdrawal from Kherson casts the more recent statements in a different - and potentially more significant - light.
"The Russian Federation is ready to negotiate with Ukraine, taking into account the realities that are developing at the moment," Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry said.
This statement was made shortly before Russian generals said forces would be retreating from Kherson, a city that Vladimir Putin had annexed only five weeks ago.
Nevertheless, although scepticism will remain around Ms Zakharova's latest comments, there is at least the possibility that they reflect a more genuine willingness from Moscow to bring its catastrophic invasion to an end.
Whether an agreement can be reached with Kyiv, however, remains very much open to doubt.
 

MattyH

TS Member
Favourite Ride
GIIBBB
Russia and Ukraine attempted Negotiations earlier in the year. I think one of Russian demands was that Ukraine recognised Crimea as a part of Russia.
 

GaryH

TS Member
Extremely serious situation at the moment as 2 Russian missiles kill two people in POLAND.

NATO currently in a crisis meeting.

 

Matt N

TS Member
Favourite Ride
Mako (SeaWorld Orlando)
Just to reassure some who may be nervous, and some who may have thought that WW3 has broken out as a result of these strikes (I fell into that category upon seeing the news…), I found this interesting Twitter thread that talks about how the news today, while of course terrible, does not equal WW3 by any means:

Essentially, the writer talks about how the whole “an attack on one NATO country is an attack on all” saying that’s always thrown around is a referring to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which says the following:
Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty said:
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

Whether or not Article 5 is invoked depends on Poland and what they wish to do, as well as the other NATO members. The North Atlantic Council meets and discusses the issue, and they determine the appropriate response. It should be noted that the language of article 5 states “if such an armed attack occurs, each of them… will assist… by taking forthwith… such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force”. This means that there’s a lot of ambiguity in the article that means that NATO does not have to provide an armed response to this attack. The writer of the thread suggests that if Article 5 were to be invoked, a response could be something such as the imposition of a no-fly zone given how comparatively “minor” the attack on NATO was.

Article 5 has been invoked before. The time it was previously invoked was by the USA following 9/11, and the response was the deployment of Operation Eagle Assist, where NATO aircraft patrolled the skies over the USA in the months following 9/11.

I know that’s a lot, but my basic point is; the events of today will likely not lead to wider war on their own, to reassure anyone worried.
 

Matt.GC

TS Member
Extremely serious situation at the moment as 2 Russian missiles kill two people in POLAND.

NATO currently in a crisis meeting.

Who says they were fired by Russia though? Not downplaying the seriousness but we still don't know where they came from.
 

rob666

TS Member
No world war three in sight...minor overreaction there Matt.
Jeez.
I would be more worried about Trump standing again...that is a greater threat to world stability in my humble opinion.
 

GaryH

TS Member
As Alsty said above - Sources inside the US are suggesting the missile came from Ukraine and was one of those used in the missile defence system.

Poland has invoked article 4 but there are no plans to invoke article 5 as there is no belief the missile attack was deliberate.
 
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