One thing I do think about Donald Trump is that over the years, he’s shown a tendency to say a lot of things and not really follow through with them. He strikes me as a man who speaks before engaging his brain, and says things for the sake of saying them.
For this reason, I agree with
@Matt.GC in perhaps being sceptical that Donald Trump will necessarily pull US support for Ukraine as many think he will. The man can talk a big talk, but his previous track record of big talk suggests that he often doesn’t follow through on much of his big talk.
He hasn’t even explicitly said that he would pull the US out of NATO or pull Ukraine support. To my knowledge, he simply said that he would pull out of NATO
if the other countries in Europe didn’t pay their fair share. He said similar things during his first term, and the US stayed a firm stalwart of NATO.
With that being said, I also agree that Trump is unpredictable. He could completely surprise us.
Absolutely this.
I'm inclined to think that he will indeed put Ukraine up for the long jump. But I don't think it's a guarantee, and I don't think Trump even knows what he wants to do himself.
I think the most likely outcome is that things won't stay as they are now. He'll either surrender massive swaths of Ukraine to the Russians, or he'll arm the Ukrainians to the teeth. I don't think there will be an in-between. He likes to do deals, and he'll do whatever he thinks will make him feel like he himself has won. That'll either be beating Putin, or beating those pesky Europeans. It's not even America first, but Trump first. If he wins, that's all that matters.
It cannot be underestimated how similar Putin thinks, and this is what makes the situation so unpredictable. Putin is also crazy and hell bent on winning. Both like to win, both lie alot, both manipulate people. Trump doesn't have the appetite within his own party or among his core supporters for continuing this war, but does have the funds and resources to do so. The opposite is true for Putin, he's ensured there's appetite with an iron fist, but his resources are depleted and his armed forces are looking like a laughing stock.
This will all come down to personal ego. If both men can go back to their people and look like a Billy Big Bollocks then they've both won. There's a deal to me made. The man who stopped the war, and the man who won it. They'll sell it like they always do.
The feelings of, and diplomacy with, countries that look increasingly pathetic like our own, the French, the Germans, and Ukrainians themselves, don't matter here.
We're millions of miles away from nuclear war. The Russians know that their country will be wiped off the face of the earth if this ever happened, and the Americans know that there'd be no one left to do business with if other allied countries were obliterated. Both countries also have protocols which stops a crazed leader pushing a button or giving an order in isolation.
Whilst I don't feel safe having Putin in the Kremlin and Trump in the Whitehouse, all either of these maniacs want is to look like the chest beating saviours of their respective nations. Nothing more, nothing less. This has nothing to do with NATO, insignificant countries like our own, or even Ukraine themselves. A deal will be done, lies will be told, both men will win.