TBC: SW9 Speculation

[jon81uk]

Some kind of combination of Crush's Coaster from WDSP, Dragon Coaster from Legoland, Arthur from Europa etc.
Start off with some story and then move onto just fun coaster in the dark.

 

[Danny]

Dark themes can still be done in such a way that isn't necessarily unappealing to those of a more nervous disposition. Verbolten is a fairly good example; containing the "dark" theme portion of the ride to the indoor building, but done in such a way that isn't designed to terrify the younger riders.

 

[Matt.GC]

I’d like to assure you that I’m not making this up; it was apparently one of the Chessington/Merlin representatives who said it. One of the key quotes regarding the Project Amazon project was:

And apparently, the message from the Chessington staff in the room implied that investment is coming to all of the parks in order to help bolster and maintain visitor numbers. Merlin wants to capitalise on the pent-up demand following lockdown, as well as the new visitors who might have visited for the first time during COVID, by investing heavily to encourage repeat visits and hotel stays. As the company is now under private ownership, they are now able to invest heavily into all of their properties without needing to answer to shareholders, and the message in the room at the Chessington consultation was that Merlin very much intends to do this over the next few years.

COVID may have happened, but the other thing that has happened is that Merlin has gone private. This happened at the end of 2019, and as much as it might seem like private ownership would make little impact on the face of it, I think we are already seeing the impacts of this. Merlin don’t have shareholders to answer to anymore, so they can see more long-term, and invest heavily without suffering the consequences with their shareholders.

It’s no coincidence that Merlin’s investment strategies and general operations of the parks changed somewhat when the company was floated on the stock market. When a company goes public, it’s very difficult to justify investing heavily when success isn’t guaranteed, because the shareholders want instant gratification for any investment made, big or small. Now that the company is private, Merlin haven’t got that to worry about; the companies owning Merlin are very much in it for the long-term vision, and they can accept one short-term blip if it means that the parks are generating more money in the long-term.

Think about it; as much as me saying that Merlin will invest more heavily post-COVID seems ludicrously optimistic to most of you, things that have happened this year, like hugely extended opening hours, an events calendar rammed with events and new entertainment options might have seemed ludicrously optimistic to many even last year, yet they still happened.

I think that Merlin’s private ownership will have a really positive long-term impact on the park, personally.

I'm not doubting you that it was said, I know you're not making this up my friend. But I'm doubting it was meant in the way you perceived it. We won't be seeing a new golden age of investment in Merlin RTP's. The key word you used there was 'implied'. You also mentioned "investing heavily", well when you cut your investments back to the feable levels they've been at recently, it doesn't take much more money to say that they're investing heavily. If I cut my shopping bill back to £5 per week and increase it £10 per week, I've invested heavily in comparison but I've still only spent 10 quid!

You're spot on with the differences between Merlin now being private as opposed to listed and the opportunities this can bring. But keeping on topic of this thread, this should mean it's LESS likely to see an SW anytime soon opposed to some marvelous creation being knocked up any day now. And rightly so too.

Being a PLC, Merlin adopted a strategy of propping up their crumbling RTP estate by investing millions every few years building flash new expensive attractions and marketing them heavily to give a shot in the arm to park attendence. Look at Wickerman for example - Alton Towers visitor numbers had collapsed, so they splashed the cash on 1 shiny new piece of hardware and practically gave away season passes, painting themselves into a corner of where the hell they go from here.

Meanwhile, while they're spending investor money to buy higher guest numbers to make visitation graphs look pretty for the city and shareholder slideshows - the parks they're putting this new expensive hardware in are falling apart, can't afford to operate all their existing attractions and closing at 4pm due to the shoestring budget they're given.

As a private company, if Merlin truly do want to win over guests by making their parks more attractive to visitors free from the shackles of the stock market, then they'd be wise to steer clear of super expensive one off investments at the expense of almost everything else in their parks. Is this happening? Well there are some green shoots this season I'll agree, but this makes an incredibly expensive SW less likely any time soon than more likely.



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[Skyscraper]

Just on the topic of something new, out of interest what do you think could go in order for this new one to arrive? Obviously The Flume was axed to make way for Wicker Man and based on space in the park, rides that perhaps aren't as up to scratch as they used to be and areas that need a few more things to draw people in, I'm interested to know what you think could possibly be replaced/what land could be used.

I know you have the space where Sub-Terra is and there was talks about it 'coming back' due to the situation where people were seen around the area and lights being tested, so if that doesn't happen (which I don't think it will) could the sub-terra area be used? I'm not sure what the old Ripsaw area is looking like these days. I'm on my first visit back tomorrow so I will be subconsciously looking at the area.

Have AT ever considered a drop ride? Such as Detonator at Thorpe. I know Chessington have just opened a new one, and I don't recall AT ever having such a thing, I think Ripsaw was the closest to that concept or the inside of Sub-Terra?

One word: Rita

 

[WickerwomanH]

Rita gets a lot of stick but to be honest I wouldn't want to see it go unless it was replaced with another launch coaster- yes Rita does one thing but it does it well!

 

[Skyscraper]

Rita gets a lot of stick but to be honest I wouldn't want to see it go unless it was replaced with another launch coaster- yes Rita does one thing but it does it well!

That's fair, what sort of launch coaster would you like to see?

 

[WickerwomanH]

That's fair, what sort of launch coaster would you like to see?

To be honest having not been on many I'm not sure! Just something with a more exciting layout than Rita. I think the only ones I've been on other than Rita are Icon and Rock n Roller Coaster at Disneyland Paris (RIP)

 

[rob666]

Revolution has a better launch than Icon, so add another to your list Heidi!

 

[Matt N]

I'm not doubting you that it was said, I know you're not making this up my friend. But I'm doubting it was meant in the way you perceived it. We won't be seeing a new golden age of investment in Merlin RTP's. The key word you used there was 'implied'. You also mentioned "investing heavily", well when you cut your investments back to the feable levels they've been at recently, it doesn't take much more money to say that they're investing heavily. If I cut my shopping bill back to £5 per week and increase it £10 per week, I've invested heavily in comparison but I've still only spent 10 quid!

You're spot on with the differences between Merlin now being private as opposed to listed and the opportunities this can bring. But keeping on topic of this thread, this should mean it's LESS likely to see an SW anytime soon opposed to some marvelous creation being knocked up any day now. And rightly so too.

Being a PLC, Merlin adopted a strategy of propping up their crumbling RTP estate by investing millions every few years building flash new expensive attractions and marketing them heavily to give a shot in the arm to park attendence. Look at Wickerman for example - Alton Towers visitor numbers had collapsed, so they splashed the cash on 1 shiny new piece of hardware and practically gave away season passes, painting themselves into a corner of where the hell they go from here.

Meanwhile, while they're spending investor money to buy higher guest numbers to make visitation graphs look pretty for the city and shareholder slideshows - the parks they're putting this new expensive hardware in are falling apart, can't afford to operate all their existing attractions and closing at 4pm due to the shoestring budget they're given.

As a private company, if Merlin truly do want to win over guests by making their parks more attractive to visitors free from the shackles of the stock market, then they'd be wise to steer clear of super expensive one off investments at the expense of almost everything else in their parks. Is this happening? Well there are some green shoots this season I'll agree, but this makes an incredibly expensive SW less likely any time soon than more likely.



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Would I be being too optimistic by suggesting that we could have both, with the little things being improved while big headliners are still built?

It might be worth casting our minds back to when Merlin was initially private, prior to their original IPO in 2013 (I think?). From an Alton perspective, the park received plentiful investment into new things (the not inexpensive investments of Mutiny Bay, CCL, Sharkbait Reef and the major investment of Thirteen were all built within 3 years, followed up by a not inexpensive 2012 with Ice Age and Sub-Terra and then another big major in 2013 with Smiler; between 2008 and 2013, the only real low year was 2011, and that was only because the originally planned IP for the 2011 project pulled out), and the little things received more of a budget too (for instance, opening hours were longer, events & entertainment were more plentiful, and numerous rides, such as the Skyride & Monorail, received hefty refurbishments). Surely it’s plausible that we could see something similar to the early Merlin era return now that Merlin are private again? That would mean that we would still see SW9 built, but the little things would be heavily funded too.

Admittedly, Merlin’s turnover is now much lower than it was in the early Merlin era due to the continuing ripple effect of the Smiler crash, so it’s probably unreasonable to expect both. I guess it’s just picking between whether you want frequent major ride investment or the little things to be getting funded. I think given that Merlin are/were poorer now than they were in the early 2010s, even pre-COVID, I think they’re doing a fine job.

 

[Matt.GC]

Would I be being too optimistic by suggesting that we could have both, with the little things being improved while big headliners are still built?

Frankly, yes. The fact is that there really isn't the money for RTP's available to do both. Would I be being too pessimistic by suggesting that we could have neither?

I don't think we can underestimate how much investment is now needed in these parks to bring them up to standard, these are far from "the little things" as you described them. The state of both Towers and Chessington are well known, but let's look at Towers case since this is an SW thread.

It seems like this season, we've seen the first good signs of Merlin being free of the shackles of being listed by an improvement in OPEX. This has led to better opening hours and a sterling schedule of events. However, the holes in the park lineup are so bad, they've had to hire in temporary fun fair flats and just look at the absolutely unacceptable state this Walliams World place has been left in it was so lacking in funds!

Aside from some of the poor states of theming around the park, temp food vans are constantly being hired in to prop up their lack of permanent food provision, that needs fixing.

Some cheap theming has been added to hide how bad the Rapids is when it needs a full refurbishment.

Duel is brand damagingly bad and the wheelchair access was done on the cheap. Again, needs a full refurb.

Another family dark ride is needed.

The monorail is rotting and needs a refurb or new rolling stock.

Nemesis needs a refurb.

The resort is running low on permanent parking provision.

The park will need a permanent solution so it doesn't have to keep hiring funfair flats.

I could go on forever with this list but I'm trying to list the most expensive and most urgent issues needed. All of this will cost millions and not a lot of it is marketable either. Of course they could not bother and splash £15 million on a new coaster, but that just kicks the can down the road, meanwhile the park this new hardware is built in continues to get worse. A new SW would be a sticking plaster and I very much doubt they have the money to do both unless they've found Borris and Sunaks magic money tree or have some extremely friendly bankers as best mates.

Of course I would love both, but sadly I think the reality is I don't think they have the money for either. Also, I wouldn't want them to try and do both on limited funds as what we'll end up with is miserable comprises like Walliams world, where we got a decent but small new attraction with an embarrassing "area" around it.


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[WickerwomanH]

Revolution has a better launch than Icon, so add another to your list Heidi!

You're very right I'd forgotten to consider that one! Surprisingly as well because Revolution is my fave at BPB!

 

[Skyscraper]

You're very right I'd forgotten to consider that one! Surprisingly as well because Revolution is my fave at BPB!

I've been on the Rev too and actually really enjoyed it (was my first "propper" launched coaster). I think S&S are developing a new-gen version, would love to see Towers get one and theme it heavilly (fully enclosed maybe?). Could double it up (two tracks side-by-side) to increase capacity as well!

 

[CrashCoaster]

Sorry to bump the thread, but out of curiosity when did we first hear about SW8/Wicker Man prior to opening/when were the plans initially filed? Just because I'm curious to know how soon we could see the plans released for SW9, especially if it opens between 2023 and 2025.

 

[Matt N]

Sorry to bump the thread, but out of curiosity when did we first hear about SW8/Wicker Man prior to opening/when were the plans initially filed? Just because I'm curious to know how soon we could see the plans released for SW9, especially if it opens between 2023 and 2025.

Alton first mentioned it & publicly earmarked the Flume site as its location on 16th March 2016, we saw rough plans on 23rd April 2016 and more comprehensive plans on 31st May 2016. Wicker Man opened on 20th March 2018.

It has happened later with other Alton/Merlin projects, however. For instance, Thirteen, Swarm & Smiler’s applications were both filed in the January of the year before opening, and DBGT’s application was filed in October 2014 for a March 2016 (intended) opening. Of course, DBGT’s opening was later delayed to May and then to July, but that was due to internal problems. The bulk of construction had finished by March, as far as I remember.

 

[CrashCoaster]

Alton first mentioned it & publicly earmarked the Flume site as its location on 16th March 2016, we saw rough plans on 23rd April 2016 and more comprehensive plans on 31st May 2016. Wicker Man opened on 20th March 2018.

It has happened later with other Alton/Merlin projects, however. For instance, Thirteen, Swarm & Smiler’s applications were both filed in the January of the year before opening, and DBGT’s application was filed in October 2014 for a March 2016 (intended) opening. Of course, DBGT’s opening was later delayed to May and then to July, but that was due to internal problems. The bulk of construction had finished by March, as far as I remember.

So essentially, if we were getting SW9 for 2023, we should be hearing about it NOW. But since we aren't, I'm gonna guess 2024 at the earliest - we might hear rumblings about it later this year/earlier next year. Covid probably pushed it back a year or two.

But then again, why were Merlin higher-ups, including John Wardley (I've seen photos to back this up) seen in Forbidden Valley doing site surveying? Either this is for SW9 or a new permanent flat ride of sorts in the area. I'm leaning towards the latter.

 

[AT86]

I doubt they would be bringing John Wardley in for work on a new flat, it’s pretty much going to be a coaster if he is involved.

However there is so much work that goes in before a planning application is filed. So it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary for work to be ongoing now for a new ride for 2024. They could well be exploring various options at this stage for SW9 one of which is the FV location, many rides get way into the design stage but then never see the light of day.

 

[CrashCoaster]

I doubt they would be bringing John Wardley in for work on a new flat, it’s pretty much going to be a coaster if he is involved.

However there is so much work that goes in before a planning application is filed. So it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary for work to be ongoing now for a new ride for 2024. They could well be exploring various options at this stage for SW9 one of which is the FV location, many rides get way into the design stage but then never see the light of day.

I think the best part about this is that it seems apparent that John Wardley has been involved in whatever this is from the beginning, rather than what happened with Wicker Man. So if he has been involved from the start, I really think this could be something special. If it does actually end up a flat, he could be there to help plan the theming/special effects. But I think I am more leaning towards a coaster now, and possibly one that goes down into the valley where the cross-valley woodie should've been.

 

[Matt N]

I doubt they would be bringing John Wardley in for work on a new flat, it’s pretty much going to be a coaster if he is involved.

However there is so much work that goes in before a planning application is filed. So it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary for work to be ongoing now for a new ride for 2024. They could well be exploring various options at this stage for SW9 one of which is the FV location, many rides get way into the design stage but then never see the light of day.

It could be a dark ride. JW was said to have been called to “fix” Derren Brown’s Ghost Train after the failure of its first year (he apparently rejected, however), so Merlin clearly sees him as someone to trust on dark rides as well as coasters!

Remember that JW was sighted in both Forbidden Valley and Dark Forest. Also, the type of ride SW9 is could influence the timing of the application; if it’s an indoor ride, I could see an application going in later for a 2023 opening, as I’d imagine a dark ride or indoor coaster would generate less opposition (less noisy, and less likely to considered be an eyesore), meaning a smoother planning process, and also possibly not take as long to construct.

 

[AT86]

It could be a dark ride. JW was said to have been called to “fix” Derren Brown’s Ghost Train after the failure of its first year (he apparently rejected, however), so Merlin clearly sees him as someone to trust on dark rides as well as coasters!

True, but I wouldn’t imagine they would be using space in FV for another dark ride when they have plenty of spaces in other areas of the park that are more sensitive planning wise where an indoor ride would be preferred. In fact I can’t actually see them spending money on a new indoor ride building when they have so many buildings sat doing nothing already, they would be more likely to repurpose those.

 

[Matt N]

True, but I wouldn’t imagine they would be using space in FV for another dark ride when they have plenty of spaces in other areas of the park that are more sensitive planning wise where an indoor ride would be preferred. In fact I can’t actually see them spending money on a new indoor ride building when they have so many buildings sat doing nothing already, they would be more likely to repurpose those.

Maybe Sub-Terra’s site could be under consideration, if the rumoured reopening doesn’t come to fruition? There’s a fair bit of land around it as well as the building itself, so if they demolished Sub-Terra and maybe cleared some of the surrounding empty land, that could be a fair amount of space for a dark ride or indoor coaster, especially if said ride had an indoor queue within the building to save space.