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TBC: SW9 Speculation

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Plastic Person said:
Seems a bit odd that Alton Towers would celebrate thirty years of Nemesis by er, having it closed for a year? I can see it closing in 2023 and then reopening at the appropriate time. Then perhaps SW9 shortly thereafter in 2025.
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I could see if closing in 2023 and reopening in time for its 30th anniversary in 2024. Would make a lot of sense. :)
 
Weirdly when I visited Energylandia back in September someone else in the Zadra queue one morning was claiming the merlin 3 x B and M deal was a thing, with the coaster for Chessington, the hyper for Thorpe and the 'reborn' Nemesis.
 
Matt N said:
I know that’s what many enthusiasts think, but does the average guest think this, and is the current strategy failing as a business model? Personally, I’d say that I could provide numerous pieces of data and case studies to add to the notion that the average guest’s level of yearning for this is far lower than that of us enthusiasts, and the lack of a more varied lineup is not having much of an effect on the park’s overall success.

With regard to the point about guest figures “falling back to where they were 2 years after”; for the last 2 major coasters, attendance has gone up in the year directly after, and the 2nd year was only a decline because of pretty substantial extenuating circumstances (incident in the case of Smiler, COVID in the case of Wicker Man). While I can’t speak for 2020, 2015 was apparently trending towards another increase before the incident happened.

Using the recent installation of Wicker Man as a case study, the park got around 2.3 million in 2018 according to Merlin’s recently released attendance figures; although not back to pre-incident levels, Wicker Man bolstered attendance quite significantly. In 2019, attendance raised again to around 2.5 million.

For some perspective, this is on par with The Smiler’s opening year of 2013, when the park had experienced less cutbacks and had a more varied lineup, and looking at the chart, it’s not a whole lot lower than many of the park’s “golden years”. I know many like to claim that attendance is way lower than it was in the 90s, but in general, the 90s years were around 2.7 million, perhaps even slightly lower on the odd occasion, so very little higher than 2019. The only year during the “golden age” that the park got over 3 million was 1994, and given that 1995 saw a drastic attendance decrease and the feat was not repeated until 2010, I’m unsure if the state/variety of the park’s ride lineup necessarily had a lot to do with that year’s success.

Also, as another case study, my cousin, her parents and her best friend went to Alton Towers for the first time a couple of months back and absolutely loved it; all my cousin could talk about when they got back was how many coasters they got on and how they rode Galactica 17 times, and they’re already keen to go back, from what I can tell! Even from my aunt & uncle, who you may expect to be more cynical and noticing of flaws than the kids, I did not hear one complaint about the lack of non-coaster things to do; they all seemed very satisfied with their trip and very keen to return.

So my point is; even though many of us enthusiasts are keen to see more variety, does the average visitor really care about the lack of non-coaster things to do? And does the lack of a more varied lineup really have an impact on the park’s success (both in terms of attendance and profit)?
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I think that's looking at figures in isolation with the intention of finding an outcome in there that you want to find. I don't know how you can put such a positive spin on 2 decades of stagnation (if not slight decline). The only numbers you will ever need to the look at is those of other European parks who haven't focussed so strongly on expensive coasters at the expense of everything else during the same period. That tells you everything you need to know about the strategy for Towers, attendance declines so rather than fixing anything they just whack up an expensive coaster and build another hotel to keep the place ticking over for another few years. Short term shot in the arm, long term damaging, hence why we're left with an increasingly scruffy, increasingly cheap feeling, increasingly unbalanced and increasingly down-market park year after year that relies on headliners and fake discounting to keep people coming.

Anyway, whoever this Jared chap is, I stopped reading as soon as I heard the prediction of NST reopening. One blokes YouTube video and another geezers Coaster Force post and we're taking about cross valleys, a plethora of permanent flats being installed and B&M hypers being built all over the place. It's 16th November and Towers has only been closed for a couple of days! At this rate, god knows what we'll be talking about come January.
 
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Matt.GC said:
Anyway, whoever this Jared chap is, I stopped reading as soon as I heard the prediction of NST reopening. One blokes YouTube video and another geezers Coaster Force post and we're taking about cross valleys, a plethora of permanent flats being installed and B&M hypers being built all over the place. It's 16th November and Towers has only been closed for a couple of days! At this rate, god knows what we'll be talking about come January.
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Of course those are only Jared's predictions based on what he knows, so do take them with a pinch of salt, but in terms of who he is; he runs Chessington Buzz, and I know that he is very well connected within Merlin.

From experience, he's also very trustworthy, and doesn't just throw things out there for the sake of it without any evidence. I know that he is well connected within Merlin and has numerous sources within the company, and 9 times out of 10, he seems to get Merlin predictions right, even when his view is against the grain; for instance, he got Project Amazon being a B&M right even when many doubted him.

I'm not claiming that Jared is some all-seeing Merlin oracle by any means, but from my own past experiences, he is very reliable, and I'd certainly be inclined to trust that what he says is accurate most of the time.
 
John_P said:
Weirdly when I visited Energylandia back in September someone else in the Zadra queue one morning was claiming the merlin 3 x B and M deal was a thing, with the coaster for Chessington, the hyper for Thorpe and the 'reborn' Nemesis.
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I think people will be disappointed when they realise that Towers' new B&M is actually Nemesis 2.0 and not the cross-valley hyper that everyone wants. :p
 
Skyscraper said:
I think people will be disappointed when they realise that Towers' new B&M is actually Nemesis 2.0 and not the cross-valley hyper that everyone wants. :p
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I still think this 3 ride deal things is a load of cobblers. It’s actually way more than that when you throw the Chinese parks in, so it’s entirely plausible. We also don’t know the model type. It may one of these is a prototype ride and given to Merlin at a significant discount.

for me it actually makes sense what’s going on, what doesn’t make sense is the fact the park needs significant investment elsewhere. Someone said earlier a £30m budget has been given. If that excludes this ride, then I can see the next 5 years being interesting
 
Benjsh said:
Vest restraints on Nemmy 2.0 do we think? Absolute a certainty I'd say. Yuck!!!
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This seems to crop up every few months. If a retrack happens it doesn’t also have to mean new trains?

Even if new trains are ordered they don’t necessarily have to have the vest restraints, I believe some recently installed inverts have still used the regular OTSR that Nemesis has.

Edit: it’s Monster at Grona Lund I am thinking of, opened this year without vest restraints.
 
AT86 said:
This seems to crop up every few months. If a retrack happens it doesn’t also have to mean new trains?

Even if new trains are ordered they don’t necessarily have to have the vest restraints, I believe some recently installed inverts have still used the regular OTSR that Nemesis has.

Edit: it’s Monster at Grona Lund I am thinking of, opened this year without vest restraints.
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As has been said before, Nemesis wil not get the next-gen trains like Banshee because they are actually heavier and wider than the standard trains. If Nemesis got new trains as part of the refurb, they would be the same as the current trains.
 
The trains can be taken apart into tiny little pieces anyway. I'm sure if there's anything wrong with any components on either of them they can and I'm sure frequently do get replaced. I wouldn't see the point in getting new trains, they're a well proven design that perform as intended. I'm not sure what would be gained from buying new ones. Since, to my knowledge, this design is still being manufactured, anything they need can be replaced or retrofitted.
 
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I think this has been discussed before but the vest trains are much bigger and wouldn't have the clearances need to fit around the pit. Like when Hulk was rebuilt it will be with the traditional over the shoulder. We know B&M still do them because Monster at Gruna Lund a brand new invert has them. There is no need for vest restraints and they wouldn't fit.
 
They will need to do something different with Nemesis as I can’t see the normal general public willing to visit again In 2023/24 just to ride the same ride.
How about Nemesis unleash after 30 years of been captured with the help of her kids she wants her revenge.
 
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