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UK politics general discussion

rob666 said:
Huge swing to the opposition in a by election between general elections.
Absolutely nothing new there, there have been many hundreds over the years...
Lets not get carried away just yet,
Still makes me smile though.
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True, but it's the seventh by-election the Tories have lost in this Parliament. In the 2017-2019 Parliament, there were a total of five by-elections. You have to go back to the 1992-1997 Parliament to see a higher number of seats lost by the ruling party by way of by-elections, when the Tories lost eight seats.
 
rob666 said:
Huge swing to the opposition in a by election between general elections.
Absolutely nothing new there, there have been many hundreds over the years...
Lets not get carried away just yet,
Still makes me smile though.
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Mid-Beds is the largest numerical majority overturned at a by-election ever, but it is a larger constituency. As you say it's good for the soul.
 
I was taught that the opposition win the vast majority of by elections in non general election years, and had done so for a long time, back in the seventies.
We did a good old gce topic on it at the time.
Did two by election polls for newsnight in my student days, most entertaining hearing Vincent Hanna say how silly the whole routine was.
The people who are in are shit, get them out, is a well repeated mantra.
 
rob666 said:
I was taught that the opposition win the vast majority of by elections in non general election years, and had done so for a long time, back in the seventies.
We did a good old gce topic on it at the time.
Did two by election polls for newsnight in my student days, most entertaining hearing Vincent Hanna say how silly the whole routine was.
The people who are in are shit, get them out, is a well repeated mantra.
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The 70s was the last decade of the post war era, where majorities were mostly quite narrow and modal life expectancy for a governing party was 1 term.

It was a different time.

What is true is that when the government isn't strong, they should expect to lose byelections in areas they might expect to lose in a general election (swing seats). Tamworth is one of these. Mid-Beds isn't.
 
It was a different time, with very similar by election results.
Landslides for the opposition in mid term by elections are nothing new, at all.
Still fun though.
 
The more I see of the recent by-election results, the more interested I become in seeing just how the next general election plays out. I was surprised to see Labour win in both Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, and I was particularly surprised by Mid Bedfordshire.

I know that by-elections do not typically favour the ruling government, and that they also often aren’t reflective of the picture at a general election due to lower turnout and such. However, a seat that’s been a Tory seat since the 1930s, with a huge Tory majority at the last election, is one where I would typically have had a Tory victory down as a near foregone conclusion. As such, I think that the loss of a safe Tory stronghold like Mid Bedfordshire does not bode well for the party’s electoral prospects in marginal swing seats, particularly seeing as this is far from the first safe Tory seat that has been lost in such a manner during this Parliament.

While it’s not a safe Tory seat in quite the same way, Tamworth also isn’t a seat where you would necessarily have had a Labour win down as a foregone conclusion. The area voted heavily in favour of Brexit in 2016, had a pretty significant Tory majority at the 2019 election, and had been a Tory seat for a number of elections in a row prior to yesterday’s by-election, so Labour were certainly up against it in some regards when it came to winning the seat.

Personally, I live in a constituency where for the last few elections, any vote other than a Conservative vote has seemed somewhat redundant. The Tories received 60% of the vote here in the Forest of Dean in 2019, nearly 60% of people here voted for Brexit in 2016, and the seat has been Tory for years; it was even a Tory seat during the last Labour tenure, if I’m remembering correctly. However, I’m becoming increasingly confident that a left-wing vote might not be quite so redundant around here at the next election; if the Tory majority in a seat like Mid Bedfordshire can be overturned, then I think overturning the Tory majority here in the Forest of Dean might not be so hard after all.

One thing I do think that the left-wing parties should consider for the next election, however, is some kind of electoral pact. I feel that it would be a really good idea if Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party all agreed to only put forward one candidate in each seat, with the party putting a candidate forward being the one who either holds the seat already or is best placed to unseat the Conservatives. The right-wing parties did this very effectively at the last election, with the Brexit Party standing aside in all 317 prior Conservative seats, and with there being so many prominent left-wing parties compared to right-wing parties, there might be a risk of splitting the left-wing vote if the parties aren’t careful. While Labour did win both seats last night, the majorities weren’t huge, so if the Liberal Democrat or Green vote share were to be higher in certain seats, the Tories would be voted back in in those seats.
 
Forest of Dean returned a Labour MP in 1997 and 2001 when the seat was created:
en.wikipedia.org

Forest of Dean (UK Parliament constituency) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

It's a swing seat but one which Labour will only win on a very good night for them. Tamworth is similar, although Labour held that one in 2005 too, so a seat they should expect to win on a night they win an overall majority - a bellwether you might say.

Mid Beds is not really a seat that should be anything other than Tory, and I suspect it will probably flip back to blue - even if the Tories end up with only double digit seats.
 
Matt N said:
The more I see of the recent by-election results, the more interested I become in seeing just how the next general election plays out. I was surprised to see Labour win in both Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, and I was particularly surprised by Mid Bedfordshire.

I know that by-elections do not typically favour the ruling government, and that they also often aren’t reflective of the picture at a general election due to lower turnout and such. However, a seat that’s been a Tory seat since the 1930s, with a huge Tory majority at the last election, is one where I would typically have had a Tory victory down as a near foregone conclusion. As such, I think that the loss of a safe Tory stronghold like Mid Bedfordshire does not bode well for the party’s electoral prospects in marginal swing seats, particularly seeing as this is far from the first safe Tory seat that has been lost in such a manner during this Parliament.

While it’s not a safe Tory seat in quite the same way, Tamworth also isn’t a seat where you would necessarily have had a Labour win down as a foregone conclusion. The area voted heavily in favour of Brexit in 2016, had a pretty significant Tory majority at the 2019 election, and had been a Tory seat for a number of elections in a row prior to yesterday’s by-election, so Labour were certainly up against it in some regards when it came to winning the seat.

Personally, I live in a constituency where for the last few elections, any vote other than a Conservative vote has seemed somewhat redundant. The Tories received 60% of the vote here in the Forest of Dean in 2019, nearly 60% of people here voted for Brexit in 2016, and the seat has been Tory for years; it was even a Tory seat during the last Labour tenure, if I’m remembering correctly. However, I’m becoming increasingly confident that a left-wing vote might not be quite so redundant around here at the next election; if the Tory majority in a seat like Mid Bedfordshire can be overturned, then I think overturning the Tory majority here in the Forest of Dean might not be so hard after all.

One thing I do think that the left-wing parties should consider for the next election, however, is some kind of electoral pact. I feel that it would be a really good idea if Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party all agreed to only put forward one candidate in each seat, with the party putting a candidate forward being the one who either holds the seat already or is best placed to unseat the Conservatives. The right-wing parties did this very effectively at the last election, with the Brexit Party standing aside in all 317 prior Conservative seats, and with there being so many prominent left-wing parties compared to right-wing parties, there might be a risk of splitting the left-wing vote if the parties aren’t careful. While Labour did win both seats last night, the majorities weren’t huge, so if the Liberal Democrat or Green vote share were to be higher in certain seats, the Tories would be voted back in in those seats.
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It's a great idea and lots of people on the left would love to see a pact between progressive parties. Unfortunately the constitution of the Labour party insists that every single seat in the country must be contested, so a pact with the Lib Dems or Greens is out of the question. Labour has to field candidates in every seat.

There's also the unfortunate precedent that the current Labour party has at removing party membership, or affiliation for officials who do suggest and encourage either tactical voting, or some sort of progressive pact. A particular example that springs to mind is Jamie Driscoll in the north east.

A rather good podcast, which does a bit of dissection on the UK's weekly politics is "Pod Save the UK". It's only recently started, and is hosted by Nish Kumar and Guardian journalist Coco Kahn, alongside some very good guests. Emily Thornberry and Chris Bryant come to mind. Obviously it's left focussed. - https://crooked.com/podcast-series/pod-save-the-uk/
 
Whilst this happening on my birthday is the best present I had, I think there's way too many people getting carried away over this.

We can get excited all we like, but there aren't really any comparible precedents for all this. The SNP who, like all nationalists, will swing any way the the wind is blowing to get what they actually want, are imploding. They've lost both of their seemingly impregnable (and both incredibly clever) leaders to controversy with Salmond and Sturgeon and have been in power up there for ages. A labour wipeout in Scotland was always one of the three keys keeping the Tories in power UK wide so all labour are seeing there is the Scottish door being slightly unlocked. The outgoing MP in Rutherglen was mired in controversy, so match that up with the recent fortunes of the SNP and an anti-tory backlash and I don't think the result is actually that groundbreaking.

The most talked about key is the woes of the Tories. Blair won in 1997 and 2001 with landslides by taking advantage of how hapless the Tories were and lurching to the right to steal their voters in marginals whilst relying on the Lib Dems to hold the Tories back in a number of seats around the country, and taking the Scottish and red wall for granted as givens. Whilst Starmer has done the same thing politically, he's far less popular than Blair as a leader. Some of the red wall are flocking to Reform (AKA Brexit Party Resurrected/UKIP 2/Diet BNP), resulting in Labour being seen as the key to getting rid of the Tories more than anything for some. Starmer has to fight the Tories, the SNP and, in the case of both mid beds and Tamworth, the Lib Dems. That's too many battles to fight at a GE, too many different fronts requiring different tactics to on, and not practical on a nationwide scale. This current government is probably the most incompetent in my entire lifetime, even core Tories hate them and many stayed at home as they couldn't proudly put their tick next to the Tory candidate anymore. Some loaded old colonels living in quaint cottages either stayed at home or voted labour simply because they couldn't stand how the party that they are most politically aligned with are completely incapable of fulfilling the most basic competency of governance. The Tories simply can't win, Labour are picking up the moderate right, Reform are picking up the right wing nut jobs, thus splitting the right wing vote (something which is long overdue and has been happening on the left for years). This works locally, but won't work nationwide. Besides, let's face it, it was Chris Pincher and Nadine Dorres on the way out, so hardly surprising there was a backlash. Both of these seats will return to Tory control next year.

The third key, that virtually no one ever talks about, yet it enabled the Cameron government of 2010 and practically gifted the Tories a majority in 2015 (alongside the SNP wiping labour out in Scotland), is the fortunes of the Lib Dems. At both of yesterday's elections, Labour fought them hard, and although it's encouraging to see them do it successfully, this simply won't scale up at a GE. Labour rely on the LD's to hold back Tory seats in a number of places, so I suspect backing off in certain areas will be a key strategy in the next election, as it was in the 90's and 2000's. They simply don't have the resources to beat the crap out of Davey's lot in every seat next year, and neither should they even try. The Lib Dems need Labour, and Labour need the Lib Dems. Some nudge nudge wink wink stuff needs to happen to take advantage of the split in the right vote whilst Farage and Co go around flirting with racists.

Basically, this is 2010 all over again but in reverse. Cameron and the Tories didn't win in 2010 - Labour lost. The same will happen next year, Starmers lot won't win as no one likes them, it'll be the Tories and the SNP that will loose. Any talk of 1997 is premature. Before he decided to not bother taking advantage of his large majorities to change the country long term, opting instead to start wars with his mate Bush, Blair and New Labour were extremely popular for the first few years. Starmer, and whatever it is Labour are supposed to be these days, are not popular. They're simply just not Johnson, Truss, Sunak, Clegg, Farage or raving nationalists. They're the "A.N Other" option. Although I personally have warmed to Starmer after doing a bit of research, the country don't feel the same way. If there is a thumping labour majority next year, which I don't will be as big as others seem to fantasise over, then it'll be down to Yousef, Sunak and Davey gifting it to them.

A gift, in a way, to Starmer. Because if he wins by simply being the lesser unpopular choice, then it's down to him and his party to over-deliver and change the dynamic in 4/5 years time. The problem he has is, the legacy that he'll inherit is so bad that I can't see him doing it. In 5 years time, things will probably still be grim, just slightly less grim than they are now.
 
GooseOnTheLoose said:
It's a great idea and lots of people on the left would love to see a pact between progressive parties. Unfortunately the constitution of the Labour party insists that every single seat in the country must be contested, so a pact with the Lib Dems or Greens is out of the question. Labour has to field candidates in every seat.
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... in Great Britain, of course.

And 'contest every seat' doesn't mean they have to throw themselves equally at every seat either. There are such things as paper candidates.

The truth is that Labour doesn't need a pact at this point, it stands only to lose by trying to enter in to one. Lib Dems do well when Labour does well, and the Greens/Nationals are too small and problematic to be worthwhile entering in to a pact with.
 
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Bi election indicates possible landslide for the opposition at general election 😁

Liklihood of landslide means current government likely to hold on until last moment to call that election 😐
 
True but the longer they hold on the bigger their loses will become, unless they're hoping for some miracle to occur.

I'm still feeling a general election in spring next year, maybe May time, before another summer of boat crossings humiliates Sunak again, but in theory could be as late as January 2025.
 
Surely this rabble can't hold on till then.

I have a feeling alot of Tory MPs are about to say they won't stand next time. The party know the time is up. In death throws nowm feels very 96/97. Death of the Tory party. With a Tory Labour leader in waiting
 
Slugjc said:
Surely this rabble can't hold on till then.

I have a feeling alot of Tory MPs are about to say they won't stand next time. The party know the time is up. In death throws nowm feels very 96/97. Death of the Tory party. With a Tory Labour leader in waiting
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Latest I heard is that Jeremy Hunt might step down in order to avoid a ‘Portillo moment’.
 
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