I don't have time to fully wade into this now but it's worth pointing out that under this current ludicrous system:
The subsidy for the current franchise system is in real terms (i.e. adjusted for inflation)
four times that of the subsidy for British Rail. Source
So the system that was badly introduced by the Conservative government of 1994 in fact costs us four times as much as the nationalised service did. Clearly there are a number of factors that muddy the water, but entirely in economic terms the current franchise system has been a disaster for the tax payer. The default of National Express on the East Coast Main Line, or First's deciding to avoid paying £826million on the Great Western Main Line, only to be shortlisted to run the franchise again (
source), is testament to that.
I can't for the life of me understand why the UK government doesn't have a stake in any of the private companies bidding or operating franchises. For example, First TransPennine Express is 45% owned by Keolis, a company majority owned by the French state-owned national rail company SNCF. Transport giant Arriva (who incidentally own CrossCountry) is completely owned by the German state-owned rail company Deutsche Bahn. I accept that our government appears to be completely inept at running anything, but a 49% or less stake in a private company could only be beneficial.
Another colossal flaw is that neither the government nor the train operating companies that operate the franchises own the rolling stock - the trains are all owned by Rolling Stock Operating Companies, of which there are three major ones in the UK, owned by major banks. One used to be named HSBC Rail but presumably saw the PR issues associated with the bank. These companies make huge sums of money. Click
here to learn how the government sold HSBC Rail for a sum £200million under its market value. Good one.
So, to recap, there are a few minor flaws with the current system:
- The government subsidy to the rail industry is four times what it was when it was nationalised.
- There don't appear to be any safeguards to stop the franchise operators jumping ship with their money when things aren't going well.
- The government somehow managed to avoid getting a stake in any of the franchise operators, despite being able to at no cost (following initial privatisation) and despite other state-owned operators successfully and profitably operating our railways.
- The track, the trains and the franchises are all separately owned and operated by different companies, and the government sold them for far less than they were worth.
- The franchise system does little to encourage long-term investment, given that by the time any investments begin to make return the franchise expires.
- The rail system completely rapes passengers, offering them terrible service at the most expensive prices in Europe.
Really, I don't think the debate should be whether First have worse staff or Virgin have cool trains (they didn't even own them or decide to introduce the joke Pendolinos) - the question should be why the franchise system is still in place and all three major parties still support it. Again, focussing on economic terms, which is what this all comes down to, the only reason to support Branson is that I share his worry that First's wildly high bid is unsustainable and they simply won't be able to afford their payments to the government, thus defaulting à la National Express.