2024 UK general election predictions and general discussion.

[GaryH]

Was a cringy watch last night if i'm honest. Darlek Starmer and no Sky Sunak - still not wanting to vote for either of those two. Given his like for theme parks I may vote for the Lib Dems, who knows, maybe there will be something in their manefesto about removing Aramark from UK Theme Parks. I would also like a party who would vow to stop companies fixing the bottle tops to the plastic bottles, they would definitely get my vote.

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

Labour Manifesto TLDR: Things will mostly stay the same as they are, but will be marginally less shit and nasty.

This low level of ambition frustrates and angers me, we deserve better.

Edit: Typo.

 

[Matt N]

Labour Manifesto TLDR: This will mostly stay the same as they are, but will be marginally less shit and nasty.

This low level of ambition frustrates and angers me, we deserve better.

The problem is that I don't think ambitious left-wing policies score well among the wider public. Britain is, fundamentally, a right-wing country with conservative values, so anything that threatens to rock that boat and go too left-wing does not tend to be received well by the British public. Look at how unpopular Jeremy Corbyn was in 2019; he was painted by the media as some sort of communist, and got Labour's lowest vote share in decades. Admittedly, Corbyn himself was a highly divisive figure, what with some of his previously expressed geopolitical stances and his presiding over antisemitism in the Labour Party, and Labour's Brexit stance or lack of one may not have helped them in an election dominated by the issue, but for whatever reason, a highly left-wing leader in Jeremy Corbyn led Labour to a catastrophic defeat in 2019. With that in mind, you can maybe understand why Keir Starmer is being careful not to disrupt the status quo too much.

Rightly or wrongly, Labour also have a reputation for being poor with the country's finances, so Starmer staying fairly conservative with the Labour manifesto could also be to prevent the media and the Tories from beating him with the stick of "Labour can't be trusted with your money!" or "Labour will hike all of your taxes!".

In an ideal world, I'd love to see Keir Starmer show a bit more ambition, but left-wing ambition unfortunately doesn't get results in this country.

 

[Craig]

We do need change, but as pointed out before a party also needs to be in power to enact change - and let’s not forget Labour have failed to do so for over a decade. Go radical and the whole thing gets torn apart before anyone turns up to the ballot box - look at how hard the Tories are going in on tax rises and pensions, despite the Labour manifesto being relatively light in the grand scheme of things. Their attacks are unlikely to change the result of the election, but a few more announcements spending a few billion more? Who knows?

We have to accept there’s not a great deal of money to do a whole lot yet. And no, they can’t just “create money” as I’ve seen people suggest. On top of the public’s perception of that spending, we’ve seen that a panicking financial market can cause when knee jerk reactions and changes are dished out.

The vast majority of the country (including me) are just looking for a bit of stability. They don’t want to turn on the news and find out that x MP has been up to who knows what, another MP is challenging for leader or another argument is brewing to cause another confidence vote. People want the grown ups in charge, and hopefully once credibility is brought back to the government, the country will be better placed to actually make some proper changes. As time goes on, I want to switch on the news and see what improvements are going to help the country, rather than what scandal is going on, or what cash is being thrown to one area as a favour to prop up an increasingly shaky leadership.

Public, and indeed global perception of our government is at an all time low at present, and it’ll take time to repair those relationships and opinion. If Labour manage to make those repairs, perhaps there’ll be further trust in the stability of the country and those more radical changes can eventually be put forward without causing those financial shockwaves that we’ve seen previously.

 

[Tom]

When people talk about Corbyn and 2019, they need to also consider 2017. The latter saw a very healthy share of the vote going to Labour when they promised to honour Brexit. Brexit was the deciding issue and major f'up of 2019 that led to the Tory landslide, somewhat by default off the back of a Labour collapse.

Almost any package of populism is enough to win under FPTP, be that (economic) left or right. I'd argue that a lot of Tory policies were relatively left wing in 2019, due to Johnson's open chequebook.

The current Labour manifesto is bland and vague, but there is probably enough generalisation to do a few more radical things once the win is safely in the bag. We can but hope, anyway.

 

[GaryH]

The current Labour manifesto is bland and vague

Bit like Starmer. People saying he is robotic last night on TV are spot on. Would I trust this guy to see us through a national crisis? I’m not sure I would. Angela Rayner maybe. But not Kier.

Frankly I find the whole thing very worrying. People are voting Labour not because they have good policies, but just to vote the tories out.

Reading the manefesto today yeah it’s full of promises but little detail. These extra dental and nhs appointments…. How will they provide this without the staff? Not a huge amount on transport - they mention tackle congestion for example…. How? Congestion charges? More LTNs? Blanket 20mph limits? Whack up fuel duty?

Surely voting in an election is voting for the party which has the best policies. I don’t see much between Labour and the Tories, the main difference being the colour of their ties.

I hate to say it but if people want significant change then it’s either vote green or reform - though god help us if either of those had number 10.

 

[Matt N]

When people talk about Corbyn and 2019, they need to also consider 2017. The latter saw a very healthy share of the vote going to Labour when they promised to honour Brexit. Brexit was the deciding issue and major f'up of 2019 that led to the Tory landslide, somewhat by default off the back of a Labour collapse.

Almost any package of populism is enough to win under FPTP, be that (economic) left or right. I'd argue that a lot of Tory policies were relatively left wing in 2019, due to Johnson's open chequebook.

The current Labour manifesto is bland and vague, but there is probably enough generalisation to do a few more radical things once the win is safely in the bag. We can but hope, anyway.

Corbyn was more successful in 2017, yes, but he still didn't win.

And we should also note that in 2017, Corbyn was up against an opponent who wasn't terribly popular in Theresa May. Mrs May was not particularly popular, and the 2017 Conservative campaign was widely criticised with gaffes like "dementia tax" and "the fields of wheat", but she still managed to win the election, even if she did not retain a Conservative majority.

Had Corbyn been pitted against a popular opponent like Boris Johnson in 2017, I don't think he would have done as well as he did.

 

[shakey]

Farage is the most charismatic party leader by a country mile.

I don't necessarily agree with everything he says but he is streets ahead in charisma

If the Farage effect keeps up they won't be far behind the Tories in percentage vote terms.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

 

[GooseOnTheLoose]

Britain is, fundamentally, a right-wing country with conservative values, so anything that threatens to rock that boat and go too left-wing does not tend to be received well by the British public. Look at how unpopular Jeremy Corbyn was in 2019; he was painted by the media as some sort of communist,

I'm afraid the numbers don't back you up there Matt! If you were to look at the pure number of votes in every single General Election, going back to the end of the Second World War (not seats won), you will see that in pretty much every single election parties with left and liberal values tally more actual votes than parties which lean right. This doesn't transfer to seats sadly, but that's a failing with our political system.

The British people are fundamentally more socialist and liberal than they are conservative, but our media is skewed right and FPTP favours right (usually).

Quick look at 2019 GE, the one with the largest Conservative majority in 30 years:

Right leaning parties: c. 14.9 million votes
Left leaning parties: c. 16.7 million votes

 

[Squiggs]

Farage is the most charismatic party leader by a country mile.

He is not... having enough grease to lubricate an engine is not the same as charisma.

 

[AT86]

Farage is the most charismatic party leader by a country mile.

I don't necessarily agree with everything he says but he is streets ahead in charisma

If the Farage effect keeps up they won't be far behind the Tories in percentage vote terms.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

If you find racism charismatic, then sure.

 

[shakey]

If you find racism charismatic, then sure.

I was not making any view on his political stance , only that he is a charismatic leader compared to sunak and starmer.

Is he racist? What has he said ?

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

 

[Matt.GC]

I don't think there are many parallels between going bold and going Corbyn at all.

Corbyn wasn't rejected because he had "ambitious left wing policies". The 2019 manifesto was just a protest pitch, an unrealistic Michael Foot-esque love letter to the socialist ideology of the past. A bit like Liz Truss' mini budget was to Thatcherism. Corbyn's Labour fought a Brexit General Election without talking about Brexit. He presided over an extremely divided party full of nastiness and anti-Semitism, ready to welcome Derek Hatton and George Galloway back with open arms. Corbyn was also someone that nobody could seriously see as Prime Minister, and his populist opponent bounced around like tit making rediclous 'leveling up' bribes, aided and abetted by fellow dishonest populist Nigel Farage.

The country is a different place to 2019, and I think people are desperate for bold ideas. The penny is dropping that if we want decent public services then we need to pay for them. I think it's widely accepted now that the public finances are a mess, we need growth, and we need to change the way we do things. But this manifesto isn't even Blair, let alone Atlee.

And yes in case anyone asks, I have read it in full. Reading it looks like it's gone through drafts that have been cut back over the course of the parliament. Some of it reads like Rachael Reeves when through it with the delete button removing policy and replacing it with aspirations. The free and cheap stuff is still in there and some of it is quite interesting.

This is Starmer not wanting to scare the horses to see him over the line. He's in Ming Vase mode, desperately trying not to be accused of being a leftie, but being perceived to offer stability. But I do get the feeling there are some surprises coming over the hill once he gets the keys to Downing Street. If he has a thumping majority, I can't see him wasting it. All the evidence is in the wording of this manifesto, just not in the actual promises, it's probably in the policies that haven't been ruled out rather than those that have been mentioned. I can't see potentially 400+ Labour MP's all sitting quietly whilst things only get marginally better when they could quite easily do things like increase capital gains tax for example.

 

[Tom]

Corbyn was more successful in 2017, yes, but he still didn't win.

And we should also note that in 2017, Corbyn was up against an opponent who wasn't terribly popular in Theresa May. Mrs May was not particularly popular, and the 2017 Conservative campaign was widely criticised with gaffes like "dementia tax" and "the fields of wheat", but she still managed to win the election, even if she did not retain a Conservative majority.

Had Corbyn been pitted against a popular opponent like Boris Johnson in 2017, I don't think he would have done as well as he did.

And conversely if it were Corbyn v Sunak this time round, it would be interesting.

On 5 July we will know what percentage of the electorate went out and voted for Starmer's Labour, to be able to compare it with Corbyn's Labour. I have a feeling it may be close.

Labour doesn't need to do a lot to beat this lot, but the point is a wide range of platforms can win when the opposition is poor. I would argue Labour have done very little since 2017, and in fact I would say they will be more up against it from the off to stay in power at the next election than any incoming party for 50 years or more. They will need to be semi-radical in power or their support will evaporate instantly once the Tories are removed.

 

[Jb85]

He is not... having enough grease to lubricate an engine is not the same as charisma.

I agree with you and for me Farage is the worst option out there. But opinion polls sky have just posted he’s ahead of the Torries now.

 

[Tom]

Charisma is just a case of being interesting and something many people are drawn to - and Farridge is certainly that.

I agree with you and for me Farage is the worst option out there. But opinion polls sky have just posted he’s ahead of the Torries now.

And Labour 3 points down on Corbyn's 2017 figure....

 

[Matt N]

And Labour 3 points down on Corbyn's 2017 figure....

Are they? I thought Corbyn got only around 40% in 2017, whereas Labour are currently polling at 43-44%?

 

[Tom]

Are they? I thought Corbyn got only around 40% in 2017, whereas Labour are currently polling at 43-44%?

Down to 37% in the Sky poll out tonight that puts Reform ahead of the Tories by 1 point.

Only one poll, but served my point nicely about how well Corbyn or possibly anyone else could be doing in opposition to this Conservative Party.

Majority of 324 for Labour now projected by Survation.

 

[BigT]

When push comes to shove most of the people saying they will vote Reform will vote Tory, then it will be a lot closer than any poll is predicting.
Starmer will be the next PM but with nothing like the majority prediction at the minute, I’d be surprised if he even beats Johnson’s.

 

[Tom]

Based on what changing exactly?

And how far out were the mid campaign polls for UKIP and Brexit Party in the last few elections?