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2024 UK general election predictions and general discussion.
- Thread starter Matt.GC
- Start date
Jonathan
TS Member
- Favourite Ride
- Helix <3
It's not a CofE church - it's hard to pin down, but they're some form of pentecostal non-denominational church as far as I can work out.
A few years back, I went to some 'Bible Week' meeting (don't ask) at the United Reformed Church (URC) in Congleton, with the prayers at the beginning being led by the pastor from this other church. In the closing prayers, he said something like "And God, we thank you for our MP Fiona Bruce, who believes that marriage is between a man and a woman." It was bad enough for him to say that, but a short while before, the URC had voted in favour of same-sex marriage, so it felt hugely inappropriate in my mind. I very nearly walked out after he said that - I was absolutely furious!
Should have just stuck with 'fairground ride', right?
Tom
TS Member
Indeed, I only looked at that earlier. No wonder she has doubled down on her vile acidic approach, in order to go down as a martyr. A foul and disgusting animal...apart from that she's perfectly fine.
Matt.GC
TS Member
He did take a ministerial role in a Tory government in which he ignored the Post Office Horizon scandal, and his party did betray millions of voters by telling lies before putting the Tories in power. But putting him on Colossus? That's harsh.He went on Colossus.
IanB
TS Member
I think in the long term, history will look back kindly on those five years of coalition government.
The Lib Dema got a lot of things they wanted, school meal for Children, a vote to change the voting method, and stopping the cost cutting from being as extreme as the Conservatives would have wanted.
Sadly, all they are remembered for is increasing tuition fees, which was a conservative policy.
With hindsight, and with the loss of the Lib Dem vote being the reason for there being a Conservative majority in the next election, I am sure there would be things the Lib Dem’s would do differently, but they could of just as easily lost support from doing nothing, and being blamed for making the financial crisis worse, or blamed for propping a Labour Party that had lost the popular vote at the election.
You can say they did a deal just to get in Power, but isn’t that the whole point of getting into politics, to get in to power, and implement the changes you want. If they had sat on the side and done nothing, they would have got nothing above done. Labour and Conservatives win when the media gives the Lib Dem’s a hard time.
The actions that the coalition took allowed there to be space to work with for additional borrowing during Covid and the energy price rises.
The amount of borrowing is at record levels. It does need to come down at some point to allow breathing space for the next emergency will need to deal with but cutting government funding is no longer the way to do this. In 2024-25, the cost of the interest alone will be £89 Billion (Source), just over 7% of public spending. That is more than the school funding for 24/25 which is £61 Billion (Source).
There has to be tax rises at some point to cover additional spend for public services and reduce the debt burden.
On a slightly different note, I don’t think you can judge someone on their voting record. The MPs are told how to vote, and if they don’t do as they are told, they will lose the party whip. I am sure there is lots of MPs on both sides who would not vote along party lines on issues, but it is how it works, and as above, if your not in the party, you have no influence over the decisions the party makes.
The Lib Dema got a lot of things they wanted, school meal for Children, a vote to change the voting method, and stopping the cost cutting from being as extreme as the Conservatives would have wanted.
Sadly, all they are remembered for is increasing tuition fees, which was a conservative policy.
With hindsight, and with the loss of the Lib Dem vote being the reason for there being a Conservative majority in the next election, I am sure there would be things the Lib Dem’s would do differently, but they could of just as easily lost support from doing nothing, and being blamed for making the financial crisis worse, or blamed for propping a Labour Party that had lost the popular vote at the election.
You can say they did a deal just to get in Power, but isn’t that the whole point of getting into politics, to get in to power, and implement the changes you want. If they had sat on the side and done nothing, they would have got nothing above done. Labour and Conservatives win when the media gives the Lib Dem’s a hard time.
The actions that the coalition took allowed there to be space to work with for additional borrowing during Covid and the energy price rises.
The amount of borrowing is at record levels. It does need to come down at some point to allow breathing space for the next emergency will need to deal with but cutting government funding is no longer the way to do this. In 2024-25, the cost of the interest alone will be £89 Billion (Source), just over 7% of public spending. That is more than the school funding for 24/25 which is £61 Billion (Source).
There has to be tax rises at some point to cover additional spend for public services and reduce the debt burden.
On a slightly different note, I don’t think you can judge someone on their voting record. The MPs are told how to vote, and if they don’t do as they are told, they will lose the party whip. I am sure there is lots of MPs on both sides who would not vote along party lines on issues, but it is how it works, and as above, if your not in the party, you have no influence over the decisions the party makes.
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Matt.GC
TS Member
I was always sympathetic to the Lib Dem cause throughout the 2000's. I've always held Paddy Ashdown and Charles Kennedy in high regard, and for the first time in 2010 I voted for them not because I was doing so tactically, but because I thought they had the best manifesto and were most representative of the views I had.
I think the coalition years are already being looked on less unfavourably now that the Tories have ruined the country after being left on their own. The Lib Dems punched above their weight in that coalition and did indeed deliver things like taking bottom earners out of tax, which was always a good policy.
But if I were to consider who is most to blame for the state the country now finds itself in, I would blame Nick Clegg. The Lib Dems have essentially successfully hidden the fact that their party is made up of Liberals and Social Democrats following the alliance merger, a situation that explains why people like Jeremy Browne and Tim Farron were in the same party, and something that Charles Kennedy had to address when there were concerns under his leadership that the party was positioned to the left of Blairs Labour. "We're Liberal, they are not.". Something that always resonated with me personally.
Cameron and Osborne successfully appealed to the Liberal side to bridge the gap between themselves and Cleggs lot, and on the surface were very generous with their concessions. Brown, who'd lost the election anyway, was not and just wanted the Lib Dems to prop him up, although many people involved have cast doubt on how serious Brown was as it looks to me that he was fully aware that he had lost and was just waiting for the Conservatives.to broker a deal to govern, walking away under the quite grotesque headlines being printed in the Murdoch media about him at the time.
But ultimately it was a Tory tuck up. They used popular Lib Dem policies to detoxify their own brand, push their 'One Nation' Conservatism agenda (worked well for them before the 2015 election) to subdue the right of their party (didn't work so well after the 2015 election), whilst Clegg, Cable, and Alexander gave them carte blanche to implement cuts that Clegg had described a few weeks before as "savage" and "ideologically driven". He was right, yet couldn't wait to pretend that he had a sudden epiphany when he "opened the books to find it was worse than expected" when he got a shiny new red briefcase.
Clegg said that these cuts would ruin public services for a generation, that we were not about to go bankrupt like Greece, that the deficit could not be eliminated in 5 years, and that economic growth would slump. He was right about all of that, so much so that Osborne himself slowed down and basically pulled Alistair Darlings plans back out of the drawer. Yet no sooner had Clegg and Cameron kissed and cuddled in the rose garden, the top rate of income tax was cut, Sure Start centres were shuttered, we were back in recession, and the deficit wasn't coming down as expected (the way economists told Osborne it wouldn't if he sacrificed growth in the sake of ideology).
The Lib Dems enabled that by selling their soles. They detoxfied the Tory brand for them, throwing themselves under the bus in the process, to enable the Conservatives to remain in power for a generation. They helped sell the lead in the roof that's now leaking. They helped the Tories vandalise the NHS and cut taxes for top earners.
And the biggest betrayal of all, even above tuition fees, was how they campaigned in every election before that and went back on the lot. For decades the Alliance/Lib Dems were knocking on doors and handing out leaflets promising to "keep the Tories out". I voted for what we now have back in 2010. I was part of that. And I've felt dirty about it ever since. Disgraceful.
I think the coalition years are already being looked on less unfavourably now that the Tories have ruined the country after being left on their own. The Lib Dems punched above their weight in that coalition and did indeed deliver things like taking bottom earners out of tax, which was always a good policy.
But if I were to consider who is most to blame for the state the country now finds itself in, I would blame Nick Clegg. The Lib Dems have essentially successfully hidden the fact that their party is made up of Liberals and Social Democrats following the alliance merger, a situation that explains why people like Jeremy Browne and Tim Farron were in the same party, and something that Charles Kennedy had to address when there were concerns under his leadership that the party was positioned to the left of Blairs Labour. "We're Liberal, they are not.". Something that always resonated with me personally.
Cameron and Osborne successfully appealed to the Liberal side to bridge the gap between themselves and Cleggs lot, and on the surface were very generous with their concessions. Brown, who'd lost the election anyway, was not and just wanted the Lib Dems to prop him up, although many people involved have cast doubt on how serious Brown was as it looks to me that he was fully aware that he had lost and was just waiting for the Conservatives.to broker a deal to govern, walking away under the quite grotesque headlines being printed in the Murdoch media about him at the time.
But ultimately it was a Tory tuck up. They used popular Lib Dem policies to detoxify their own brand, push their 'One Nation' Conservatism agenda (worked well for them before the 2015 election) to subdue the right of their party (didn't work so well after the 2015 election), whilst Clegg, Cable, and Alexander gave them carte blanche to implement cuts that Clegg had described a few weeks before as "savage" and "ideologically driven". He was right, yet couldn't wait to pretend that he had a sudden epiphany when he "opened the books to find it was worse than expected" when he got a shiny new red briefcase.
Clegg said that these cuts would ruin public services for a generation, that we were not about to go bankrupt like Greece, that the deficit could not be eliminated in 5 years, and that economic growth would slump. He was right about all of that, so much so that Osborne himself slowed down and basically pulled Alistair Darlings plans back out of the drawer. Yet no sooner had Clegg and Cameron kissed and cuddled in the rose garden, the top rate of income tax was cut, Sure Start centres were shuttered, we were back in recession, and the deficit wasn't coming down as expected (the way economists told Osborne it wouldn't if he sacrificed growth in the sake of ideology).
The Lib Dems enabled that by selling their soles. They detoxfied the Tory brand for them, throwing themselves under the bus in the process, to enable the Conservatives to remain in power for a generation. They helped sell the lead in the roof that's now leaking. They helped the Tories vandalise the NHS and cut taxes for top earners.
And the biggest betrayal of all, even above tuition fees, was how they campaigned in every election before that and went back on the lot. For decades the Alliance/Lib Dems were knocking on doors and handing out leaflets promising to "keep the Tories out". I voted for what we now have back in 2010. I was part of that. And I've felt dirty about it ever since. Disgraceful.
jon81uk
TS Member
I didn't watch the interview with Sunak but seems the main talking point this morning is that he thought his family sacrifice was not having Sky TV. Yet some think having a dish on the wall is quite working class. Also of course still reference him not staying at the D-Day stuff that "ran over". Doesn't seem to have done himself any favours. Might as well just said he wasn't allowed to run through fields of wheat as a child.
I think many of us growing up in the 80/90s didn’t have Sky tv. It was definitely a luxury back then. I still recall only having 3 tv channels to choose from , BBC1, 2 and ITV. Weirdly though there was usually something decent on to watch. I scroll through hundreds of channels now and struggle to find something at times!
Alsty
TS Member
- Favourite Ride
- Shambhala
It seems like Grant Shapps is talking out of his arse today:
“You don’t want to have somebody receive a supermajority. And in this case, of course, the concern would be that if Keir Starmer were to go into No 10… and that power was in some way unchecked, it would be very bad news for people in this country”.
Did he forget that the Conservatives had a significant majority of 80 in 2019? I don't remember him saying that was bad for the country.
“You don’t want to have somebody receive a supermajority. And in this case, of course, the concern would be that if Keir Starmer were to go into No 10… and that power was in some way unchecked, it would be very bad news for people in this country”.
Did he forget that the Conservatives had a significant majority of 80 in 2019? I don't remember him saying that was bad for the country.
Craig
TS Administrator
Maybe…just maybe, they should have spent some of those 14 years actually figuring out:
a) Having some actual discipline within their own party
b) Coming up with some viable plans to attract younger voters since their own voting base is dying off
Then maybe they wouldn’t be in the situation they’re in and would have an ability to keep some seats in parliament.
a) Having some actual discipline within their own party
b) Coming up with some viable plans to attract younger voters since their own voting base is dying off
Then maybe they wouldn’t be in the situation they’re in and would have an ability to keep some seats in parliament.
Matt.GC
TS Member
I find it interesting that Shapps has said this, because it's not an off-the-cuff remark, it actually now looks like it's part of the campaign strategy!
Of course the focus will be on Shapps as he's a high profile character. But the Conservatives put a video out on social media yesterday warning people that a vote for any other party than them (clearly aimed at Reform voters) will make a Labour majority stronger. It showed polling projections of Tory wipeout and a Labour 'supermajority". This was a Conservative Party broadcast.
Also today, Conservative Geoffrey Cox MP, standing for re-election in Torridge and Tavistock, warned that a Labour "supermajority" based on current polling would lead to the UK becoming a "one-party socialist state".
This is all more than a bit of a coincidence. There's a clear change in strategy for the Tories, maybe it was even baked in at the beginning considering that Sunak's campaign bus has predominantly been visiting Tory "safe seats". Damage limitation seems to be the strategy now, and this is exactly the sort of thing that will prove the current polls wrong. From Left to Right, all small parties are saying the election is a done deal. Now it seems like the Tories are joining in. This could be successful in generating alternative votes, or cause a high amount of people to stay at home. That's Labour's problem now, getting people motivated to bother.
Sunak may have looked like he got smashed tonight, but I thought it was Starmer that came off worse. Let's face it, things couldn't really get any worse for Sunak, so tonight was just reinforcing what we already knew. The focus is now on Starmer, not the outgoing guy. I thought the bloke who accused him of being a robot really hit him where it hurt, as Sir Kier switched between man and machine mode all evening. Sunak was as he's always been. Despite the 'who won' poll, I think Starmer will come out of this worse, especially now the Tories have changed tactics.
Of course the focus will be on Shapps as he's a high profile character. But the Conservatives put a video out on social media yesterday warning people that a vote for any other party than them (clearly aimed at Reform voters) will make a Labour majority stronger. It showed polling projections of Tory wipeout and a Labour 'supermajority". This was a Conservative Party broadcast.
Also today, Conservative Geoffrey Cox MP, standing for re-election in Torridge and Tavistock, warned that a Labour "supermajority" based on current polling would lead to the UK becoming a "one-party socialist state".
This is all more than a bit of a coincidence. There's a clear change in strategy for the Tories, maybe it was even baked in at the beginning considering that Sunak's campaign bus has predominantly been visiting Tory "safe seats". Damage limitation seems to be the strategy now, and this is exactly the sort of thing that will prove the current polls wrong. From Left to Right, all small parties are saying the election is a done deal. Now it seems like the Tories are joining in. This could be successful in generating alternative votes, or cause a high amount of people to stay at home. That's Labour's problem now, getting people motivated to bother.
Sunak may have looked like he got smashed tonight, but I thought it was Starmer that came off worse. Let's face it, things couldn't really get any worse for Sunak, so tonight was just reinforcing what we already knew. The focus is now on Starmer, not the outgoing guy. I thought the bloke who accused him of being a robot really hit him where it hurt, as Sir Kier switched between man and machine mode all evening. Sunak was as he's always been. Despite the 'who won' poll, I think Starmer will come out of this worse, especially now the Tories have changed tactics.
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Alsty
TS Member
- Favourite Ride
- Shambhala
Yes even the Daily Mail is joining in with the hysteria on their front page: "A Tory wipe out risks one party socialist state". Lolz
I think this strategy is two part:
I think this strategy is two part:
- Pretty please vote for Conservative instead of Reform
- If you want Labour it's already a foregone conclusion, so don't worry about turning up to vote
BarryZola
TS Member
After seeing their manifesto, I think I'm going to vote Green (moving from not bothering to vote at all). They apparently have some sensible ideas. Not that it will matter much as Labour are a shoe-in around here (West Bromwich constituency). It only went Tory last time because of Brexit. Traditionally strongly a Labour area, and will be again this time.