Coronavirus

[RoyJess]

I hope you and Jess are doing well Roy and don't blame you for taking precautions, take care

Jess and I are doing well thank you. Life for us carries on as normal for most of the time, as before the pandemic, we only went out once a week, the rest of the time we would stay at home, we did most of our shopping on line any way, the only difference is that we are unable to go out once a week and I can't just simply nip out to the shops if we are in need of anything

We have a house full of parrots (13 in total) plus Jess to care for, all of which keep me very busy.

I've been working on our garden and maintenance of our home. Once a week we have a day out in our garden with some magical background music and it feels like we are sitting in a theme park minus the rides Now the nights are drawing in, we have been also illuminating the garden once a week and sitting out till after dark watching the stars, shooting stars and bats flying around. I've been playing the IMA Alton Towers CD during the illuminations and our garden looks very magical with the sound and lights (Obviously we have keep our music down of an evening very low so that we don't disturb the neighbours) I also serve up some freshly popped popcorn from the microwave after dark. We are creating new experiences and memories.

Of course I appreciate that vulnerable people and those who care for/are close to vulnerable people will still take a lot of precautions; the disease is still out there, and will be until a vaccine is approved or we find some other way of controlling the disease, and I think that is an important thing to remember. I will still be trying to follow the social distancing regulations and other regulations where possible, personally.

However, I’m only going off of what the ONS says, and on that front, it looks promising. There’s no surefire way to tell the prevalence of COVID short of testing the entire population of the UK once a week, which just isn’t feasible. But surely if this percentage reflects a levelling off in COVID prevalence, then it must provide some indication of what the full country is like, within a reasonable margin of error?

Yes the virus is still out there, it is still the same virus and the risks haven't change. We are shielding because Jess has
inborn error of metabolism, Jess is immobilise in a wheelchair and is unable to regularly wash her hands like you and me can. Even though the risk of caching the virus is no different to us to anyone else, Jess is at high risk of complications if the catches the virus plus the steroid treatment will be high risk to Jess.

For the metric of cases, I think an interesting thing to do would be to compare the number of positive tests per 1,000 tests. That would cancel out the increase in testing and give everything a level playing field.

I’ve found the reported 7-day averages for 1st June, 1st July and 1st August for both cases and testing, and they are as follows:

• 1st June: 1,905 cases, 112,000 tests = 17 cases per 1,000 tests
• 1st July: 711 cases, 137,000 tests = 5.2 cases per 1,000 tests
• 1st August: 802 cases, 172,000 tests = 4.7 cases per 1,000 tests

So it would seem that the proportion of positive tests (aka average prevalence of COVID in the community) is still going down by this metric, albeit at a reduced rate. When you see increased case numbers, @BigT is right in saying that that is mostly down to testing, as the estimated prevalence of COVID in the community is still decreasing if you look at it through the lens of percentage of tests which are showing up positive.

I still don't trust the figures. I like to take a step back from every situation and try and see the bigger picture. I still don't trust the government figures. A lot of the government advice has always been based on the resources or the lack of resources.

Early testing was only for those in hospital showing symptoms, then they open up testing for NHS health workers and key workers. Then they open up testing for all. Those in care homes were the last to be tested. So those figures per cases are going to read different over the months. I like to look at what the other countries are doing, those figures per cases have gone up, we are behind some of these countries and will follow soon.

Like I said, we went into lock down not to save lives, but to save the government and NHS as they had the lack of resources, even they initially went against mask wearing as they were afraid that there wouldn't be enough to supply the NHS if we all went out and bought one. Now this government is now intent of saving the economy.

I've been keeping a daily record of the daily figures from both of these sites, they do contradict each other and these figures have been revised a few times (revised up as well as down). Since the daily rate of new cases have gone over 1000 in the last few days, the daily figures have seem to be released on alternative days. The daily death figures haven't been released for the past 3 days.


https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

I am hopeful for the future and that we will eventually see an end to this, but I don't believe it will be sometime before next spring. This pandemic could go on for another six months to a few years depending on whether we find a successful vaccine (and the up take of the vaccine is high) or the virus simply fizzles out over time.

I also read an interesting article from a doctor earlier this week where he said he doesn’t see a second wave as hospital emissions are going down all of the time still, he even said there are signs the virus is weakening, here’s hoping..

The figures have gone up within the last week, plus if you listen to different scientist and doctors, they will tell you different things, they all don't agree.

Current hospital figures for today are

925 in hospital
75 on a ventilator
129 admitted to hospital in the last 24 hours

These figures may rise as there is a good few weeks delayed between people catching covid to hospital admissions and deaths.

Give it another month or two and we will soon see what will happen

 

[pluk]

Amusement arcades on the coast have been packed out for a month, zero distancing, zero track and trace.
Casinos are nothing in comparison!

Arcades are similar to shops really in how they operate. People not social distancing is obviously wrong, but it is possible.

Casinos on the other hand are like big bars but where you have to move around, exactly what you shouldn't be able to do in pubs and bars.

One of my local casinos have been promoting their measures, and it seems they're being sensible to be fair, but by cutting their capacity by 80% and how few people can now play at a table that need multiple staff to function, I can see money making to be a real struggle and the atmosphere being really odd.

 

[Jb85]

The second wave is coming - not sure how to put photos on here but I’ve seen numerous graphs showing the overall trend in daily increase

 

[BigT]

Maybe? Maybe not?

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare

Hospital admissions still falling, testing still increasing, cases to tests still falling.
In Europe the second wave is definitely coming, in the UK it will only come if people still insist on going on their “well deserved” holiday or we don’t crack down on stuff like this.

 

[Alsty]

In Europe the second wave is definitely coming, in the UK it will only come if people still insist on going on their “well deserved” holiday

I've seen a lot of comments like this online. "People shouldn't be travelling", they're "idiots for travelling", they "deserve what they get", and I even saw a story of people who came back from France at 3:50 and the amount of people saying they were endangering the country was frankly ridiculous.

The whole Coronavirus thing has become a moral panic. Yes, everybody needs to take care, yes it is serious, yes people need to play by the rules and stick to social distancing etc but it's also bringing out a judgemental "holier than thou" attitude in some people.

We get people judging and criticising people for travelling when it's permitted, people arguing with people for not wearing a mask when they're exempt, people judging neighbours or even whole communities for assumed non-compliance with lockdown etc. Perhaps if everybody could just chill, follow the rules to the best of their ability, and stop judging or criticising others, it'd be a more pleasant time for everybody.

 

[Matt N]

Also, the WHO has encouraged us to ditch the whole “second wave” wording, as they’ve said that it will likely end up being “one big wave”, with flare ups here and there.

The exact wording was that the world should try and keep it to being “something that merely laps at our feet” as opposed to a “tsunami”, and though cases have increased somewhat in Europe, we are still nowhere near the levels seen at the very peak, nor is it accelerating anywhere near as quickly as it was in March. So I’d say suppression strategies & quarantines may be stopping a huge resurgence for the time being.

 

[jon81uk]

people arguing with people for not wearing a mask when they're exempt,

I only judge the selfish people who have a mask but won't wear it propery. No mask at all and I assume they have a condition that makes wearing one hard. A mask on but not covering their nose, or pulled down to their chin and I assume they are selfish idiot.

 

[Rojo]

It's always weird when you see your hometown in the news. It's really weird when it's you see it's related to the highest Coronavirus death rate currently in England and Wales

One of them was my friends Taid and the news reported a single death in Wales the following day.
Absolutely bonkers when you know the person who is normally just a statistic. After speaking to him there has been many short comings at the Maelor hospital and the story below is hardly surprising. Especially if there's any truth in the rumours that COVID positive patients have been put on the wrong wards and people being sent back to care homes when they shouldn't. It does seem a bit late for the Rowan foods outbreak but maybe it's a ripple effect?

Spoiler: News story

Wrexham has highest covid deaths in England and Wales


There were more deaths registered involving coronavirus in Wrexham for the second week running than any other area of Wales and England, Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures show.

There have been 24 Covid-19 deaths registered in Wales in the week ending 7 August - nine of them were hospital deaths in Wrexham.

This means a rise in deaths from 10 registered the previous week. Altogether, 16 deaths were in the Betsi Cadwaladr health board area of north Wales.

The ONS figures show deaths in hospitals, care homes and people's homes, and where coronavirus is suspected by a doctor or confirmed.

Although there were 16 deaths in north Wales - 15 in hospitals - this is far fewer than at the height of the pandemic in April.

But there are more being registered there than in other health board areas in Wales at the moment

'No widespread transmission in Wrexham'


There has not been widespread community transmission of Covid-19 in the Wrexham area, according to the health minister.

Vaughan Gething’s comments came as the latest data from the Office of National Statistics showed there have been more registered deaths involving coronavirus in Wrexham compared to any other local authority in England and Wales for two weeks running.

Speaking at the Welsh Government’s weekly coronavirus press conference, Mr Gething said the number of infections in Wrexham was falling and that there was a “continuing and improved picture”.

“The evidence shows there has not been widespread community transmission within Wrexham,” Mr Gething said.

“That's really important - that shows that our system is working as it should do; identifying clusters, taking proactive action.

“And we’ll need to see more of that as we see different cases and clusters around the rest of the country.”

[\spoiler]

 

[Jonathan]

Someone in Congleton's been a moron. For crying out loud, if you've been tested for coronavirus, you should self-isolate until you have confirmation of your test result. NOT go out and get drunk! Completely irresponsible behaviour! The venue even called it out as selfish in a Facebook post, which I can't disagree with at all!

 

[delta79]

It's always weird when you see your hometown in the news. It's really weird when it's you see it's related to the highest Coronavirus death rate currently in England and Wales

It is worrying being the next largest town to your hometown.

When the pubs opened in England the amount of wallets/purses found with welsh addressed ID in them was mad.

I am waiting foe covid to jump the 18 odd miles to my hometown

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[imanautie]

France are set to make masks a requirement in shared offices, could we see similar in the UK?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53817383

(Im aware it's a fairly moot point as most companies have their own policies making it a requirement)

 

[pluk]

France are set to make masks a requirement in shared offices, could we see similar in the UK?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53817383

(Im aware it's a fairly moot point as most companies have their own policies making it a requirement)

I don't know what France's guidance was prior to this, but our 2m gap or 1m with other measures seems to be pretty sensible and working, so I doubt it'll be necessary here unless something quite drastic changes. Most places I've been have proper spacing and measures to comply with the guidance.

 

[delta79]

When some places uses social bubbles as a way to get around reduced capacity. So you have a work group bubble, a break time bubble and a transport bubble.
Then you get home to your personal social bubble.

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[BigT]

Someone in Congleton's been a moron. For crying out loud, if you've been tested for coronavirus, you should self-isolate until you have confirmation of your test result. NOT go out and get drunk! Completely irresponsible behaviour! The venue even called it out as selfish in a Facebook post, which I can't disagree with at all!

I don’t think that makes someone a moron, I go for a test once a week but don’t isolate, if you don’t have any symptoms there is no requirement to isolate.

 

[Danza91]

I would say a bit of pragmatism is required. If you're awaiting test results because you have reason to believe you have COVID-19 and then go out to pubs, that's irresponsible. Not staying at home each time you are awaiting results for routine or precautionary testing when you feel absolutely fine I don't think is selfish.

What the article doesn't make clear if this person had any symptoms or not. Rumba say their house rules 'clearly state that if you are awaiting test results or displaying symptoms of Covid-19, then you should not visit Rumba.' Their website only says, from what I can see, don't visit if you are displaying symptoms.

 

[Tim]

France are set to make masks a requirement in shared offices, could we see similar in the UK?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53817383

(Im aware it's a fairly moot point as most companies have their own policies making it a requirement)

I hope not. The office I work in has a lot of space as it's a mixture of desks and work areas. As a result although our company has a 16m rule for how close people can work together unmasked most of the desks already complied. It would be pretty silly for us to wear masks on top of that, we'd have to approach the other person just to have a conversation, defying the point of being so far apart.

I know this isn't the case for most offices, but it's why I'd prefer the government to define a safe working distance rather than a blanket all offices must wear them.

 

[Rojo]

Dr John Campbell is definitely worth a follow for Coronavirus research on YouTube if you haven't encountered him already.

His latest video is teeming with potential good news in regards to immunity, vaccine effectiveness and potential eradication of the disease in the long term. Some interesting numbers in regards to the percentage of the populations that have received the disease and how they could potentially be on the way to herd immunity already, if it is indeed possible. (Which this video indicates it might be )

There's an interesting study on a fishing boat from the Washington university that shows how effectively COVID can spread.

Most of it isn't groundbreaking but it's as good as a confirmation that 2021 may not be the cluster*beep* that 2020 has been so far.

 

[Rob]

Thanks for posting that @Rojo. Very encouraging to hear about some of the studies taking place, especially when this rarely makes the mainstream news.

 

[Matt N]

Very promising evidence! Out of interest, where does he get this evidence from, because it seems to counteract everything the news pumps out (I seem to remember “only 3 months of immunity” being the big headline a month or so ago)?

Regardless, nice to see a scientist who has reason to feel optimistic about the pandemic’s future course!

 

[Rob]

Very promising evidence! Out of interest, where does he get this evidence from, because it seems to counteract everything the news pumps out (I seem to remember “only 3 months of immunity” being the big headline a month or so ago)?

Regardless, nice to see a scientist who has reason to feel optimistic about the pandemic’s future course!

It is based on 3 different studies that have taken place. The 3 month immunity headlines related to antibody immunity, however new evidence is showing that people develop T Cell immunity as well, even in mild or asymptomastic cases, and this immunity is thought to be long lasting.