Coronavirus

[Craig]

On brighter notes cases do seem to be plateauing and the government has a spanking new page.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Interesting the positive cases have only gone up 5.5% in the last week but the number of tests carried out has risen 32.6%.

The data for tests carried out is a week behind due to lags in data coming through, so the 32.6% rise is because more people are being tested after the Christmas period (the comparison period is 25th-31st January). That said, the positivity rate is a key factor in determining how things are going. We're currently at 17.6% positivity (up to 6th January), which is down from the high of 18.3% over New Year. Slow going but some cautious good news.

Cases also seem to be starting to plateau in most areas and in some areas are down due to the increased restrictions. However, we need to remember we're a little blind to the level of cases now. Back in November when we had the last lockdown, we were at around 25,000 cases a day (and an average of just 9% positivity) which was a shocking number at the time. We've been over double that in terms of cases for some time now. Higher case numbers obviously means the virus is more prevalent, meaning restrictions will end up being in place for longer. Likewise, those higher case numbers mean more hospitalisations. Those record numbers we've seen in the past week or so will take another week or two to filter through to the hospitals.

So good news on the case front, but the next few weeks on hospitalisations and deaths is going to be pretty scary to say the least. Fingers crossed we're starting to turn a corner though!

 

[BigT]

If we all value our health, our lives and those all around us, then we all should be wearing a mask. Only those that have genuine medical reasons for not wearing one should not have to, but it should not be used as an excuse for those that can wear one. If you are not wearing one for medical reasons, then make sure you keep 2 meters apart, which is the length of an adult size bed not the length of your arm.

Scientifically it is proven that wearing a mask properly reduces the risk of transmission. They don't work because people are reusing them, sharing them, wearing them half hanging off their faces, keep touching them, putting them of and taking them off in a way which contaminates them etc.....

I’m sure in a laboratory the tests do indeed show that however in reality it’s unlikely they do much for all of the reasons you mention.
That’s why there should be a standard and instructions in English, I actually thought it was illegal to sell a new item in this country without a BS or EU quality mark along with instructions in the local language.
Strange times indeed but I’m sure someone is getting very rich off it.

 

[Danza91]

I still think once people put on a mask they believe they're invincible. It happens so often to me now people stand right behind me in a queue like normal. That said, I cannot wait for the day when I can bin my masks. I put up with it, but they don't half irritate my skin.

Cases appear to be dropping, or at least levelling off, in pretty much every region in England now. Whitty was answering questions this morning and told another lie, that they're rising all across the country.

 

[rob666]

What is your source?
Liverpool area and Cheshire, rates trebled over the last couple of weeks.
Manchester still increasing considerably.
Hospital cases in most areas are increasing.
Not a time for complacency.

 

[Danza91]

NHS coronavirus data website. Cases > Regions. North West seems to be the only one where cases are still rising, the others appear to be dropping or levelling off. Hospital admissions will continue to rise for a few weeks due to the time from infection but if cases drop now that should start to reflect in hospital admissions from the end of the month.

Long way to go but it's positive.

 

[Craig]

Cases are still rising in a lot of areas, although the rate of rise is starting to level off in most - this can be seen on the Coronavirus dashboard that BigT linked to. Liverpool is levelling, although is still on a steeper trajectory than the likes of say Manchester. But, there are signs in some areas (London, North East for example) that are showing a decline in recent days.

I didn't see the Whitty interview, but despite the declines or levelling off this goes back to what I was saying about being blind to the numbers. Daily cases across the whole of the UK are still at alarmingly high levels despite any sort of decline. At the moment, the lowest 7 day rate is 120 cases per 100k, a number we would think was high at many points last year.

So yes, we can't be complacent yet, and yes the likes of hospitalisations are still rising which will inevitably result in a further rise in deaths afterwards. But, that doesn't mean we can't discuss the positives like a drop in cases which will eventually lead to a drop in those hospitalisations and deaths.

 

[Dave]

Quite a big risk actually. Covid has been found in poo, and has even been found to spread through sewer systems into peoples homes, although we are less at risk of this due to our U Bend plumbing which has a water seal in the bottom. Plus in many workplaces bathrooms are not very well ventilated, or there may be just one toilet in the room which is used by 20 or so people. If someone with Covid coughed into the air in the room, then someone went in shortly afterwards, chances are they could also contract the virus.

Granted not all bathroom facilites are the same but I dont think there are many which have windows to allow in fresh air.

The evidence is piling up against touch point transmission at the moment. It is a major transmission method for flu virus’s but it’s not showing as a major vector for Covid, think we need more data to be sure though.

There’s a good argument right now that face masks don’t really do anything, just look at the daily case numbers.
I’d be a bit more sympathetic to the cause of wearing them if they actually had to be manufactured to some sort of standard.
Most of them aren’t.

There is a standard for masks set out by government guidance which is 3-layer surgical mask. I agree that there is no standard for people selling “face masks” though and a lot don’t meet this. The other issue is people don’t wear masks properly, they reuse disposable masks for days (they should only be used for 8-12hrs) and touch them all the time.

 

[Skyscraper]

If you are not wearing one for medical reasons, then make sure you keep 2 meters apart, which is the length of an adult size bed not the length of your arm.

I try my hardest but find it hard to gauge the distance.

 

[Craig]

It's 1 meter still actually (hasn't been officially increased back to 2 yet), and I try my hardest but find it hard to gauge the distance.

This is incorrect. It is one metre plus but only where 2m isn't possible and with further mitigation measures. In a supermarket, your mask is the mitigation measure. If you or someone else near you does not have that on (or a screen at a checkout), then you must be 2 metres apart.

 

[Islander]

It's 1 meter still actually (hasn't been officially increased back to 2 yet), and I try my hardest but find it hard to gauge the distance.

Yep, as Craig points out, it's never been 1m. You're thinking of 1m+, which is basically still 2m wherever possible, but can drop to 1m where other mitigating factors are employed.

 

[The Cardinal]

I think the vaccine has provided us with some hope. That being said, I know there was no other option, but after this lockdown is over whether it's mid-February, March or early April, everyone's immune system is going to be so low from the lack of social interaction for months. Let's hope that doesn't have too much of an impact with covid still around too.

 

[Jonathan]

I think the vaccine has provided us with some hope. That being said, I know there was no other option, but after this lockdown is over whether it's mid-February, March or early April, everyone's immune system is going to be so low from the lack of social interaction for months. Let's hope that doesn't have too much of an impact with covid still around too.

I'll be fine - I spend most of my time on my own in my room anyway.

 

[RoyJess]

I'm sure todays figures are a direct fallout from Christmas easing. Because of the lag, I doubt that we will start to see the benefits of this current lockdown for another week or so.

Looks like those at the top should practice what they preach Apparently he broke no rules.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55620138

Generally, I'm very much on the side of the Police and government, but this article makes for some... interesting reading:

Covid: Women on exercise trip 'surrounded by police'

So a cup of hot drink is classed as a picnic? It's a shame that the pubs weren't told this during the tiers, who would have thought that a hot drink was classed as a substantial meal?

 

[Jonathan]

Well, of course Boris can't break any rules. He's perfect in every single way, and immune from criticism, the spineless, self-serving idiot.

 

[Danza91]

I'm no Boris fan but seven miles from Downing Street really isn't far for cycling, I don't think this is a 'gotcha' moment.

 

[John]

It's a bit weird really, we've got those two women in the news who "only drove a few miles" and they're being portrayed as victims, whilst Boris cycles a similar distance away from home and is apparently the villain? I'm not buying it - either both scenarios are OK or neither are, but with how vague the wording is I'm not really sure which.

I'll be fine - I spend most of my time on my own in my room anyway.

I'm in the same boat. I've never needed an excuse to avoid socialising, if I wasn't working from home I'd barely have noticed the change TBH.

 

[delta79]

I'm sure todays figures are a direct fallout from Christmas easing. Because of the lag, I doubt that we will start to see the benefits of this current lockdown for another week or so.

I personally would go for two weeks from now to see the real results of lockdown.

Also they are predicting September for vaccination of general population. So my prediction is November for easing of face masks and social distancing.
Unless the virus has burnt it self out before then.

Sent from my SM-A217F using Tapatalk

 

[RoyJess]

I'm no Boris fan but seven miles from Downing Street really isn't far for cycling, I don't think this is a 'gotcha' moment.

I think it's a case of mix messages, Boris was only saying the other day that there is no room to flex the rules, two girls got fined for taking a walk to exercise because they drove 5 miles to exercise, and the government website doses say the following "Stay local means stay in the village, town, or part of the city where you live".

If those at the top don't set a good example, them you will get the Dominic Cummings effect

 

[rob666]

We have already got the Cummings effect.

 

[BarryZola]

That's incorrect, genuine exemptions will still be allowed. They're cracking down on those who are perfectly capable of wearing a mask but just refuse to.

And how do they do this when people will just say they are exempt but aren't required to carry proof with them? Unless it's a 'no mask, no entry' rule then it's still pointless.