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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Jb85
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Just reading the Twitter feed of an epidemiologist who attended a scientific meeting today discussing the new South African variant. Somewhat concerning in that they found 21 out of 44 serum samples of people with antibodies to the first Covid variant did not respond to the new S African variant.
This means potentially a high number of people infected first time around or vaccinated worth a vaccine based on the first variants (as current ones are) could catch this S African variant of the virus. More studies are underway.
Link to feed and video of the meeting here :
Also, a U.K. study has found that there is a “modest” reduction in the efficacy of the mRNA vaccine against the B117 variant which is the “new U.K.” variant the press keep referring to. Feed:
With the Brazil variant as well, it may be a case that everyone has a first dose vaccine and the second dose will have to be re engineered to protect against these new variants. Who knows!
This means potentially a high number of people infected first time around or vaccinated worth a vaccine based on the first variants (as current ones are) could catch this S African variant of the virus. More studies are underway.
Link to feed and video of the meeting here :
Also, a U.K. study has found that there is a “modest” reduction in the efficacy of the mRNA vaccine against the B117 variant which is the “new U.K.” variant the press keep referring to. Feed:
With the Brazil variant as well, it may be a case that everyone has a first dose vaccine and the second dose will have to be re engineered to protect against these new variants. Who knows!
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We’re potentially looking at a similar situation for the Brazil variant too. Both of which are pretty likely to already be circulating here given we kept our borders open until today...
Rob
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For me, one of the most significant parts of that screenshot (and I've not read the whole thread/video) is that it's just results from an antibody study and does not take in to account any T-cell immunity. It has been widely acknowledged now for quite some time that T-cells have a big part to play, despite the focus always being on antibodies.
Matt N
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All of the things I’ve seen from the press and government indicate that the vaccine works against the new UK strain (which is arguably the country’s main problem at the moment), but the South African and Brazilian strains are slightly more of a question mark. That being said, it’s not confirmed that our vaccines don’t work against these strains. Based on what I know about DNA from my Biology GCSE, I don’t think that one mutant strain on its own will be enough to take the vaccines from 95% effective to completely useless. It will probably be a more gradual process, where the disease’s traits gradually change over time.
The thing that confuses me, however, is; why are we only seeing new strains reported upon now? Surely the disease was mutating in some capacity all through the early part of last year (it’s mutated at least once since leaving China, which was never reported upon at the time) with no huge effects on the pandemic, so how come we’re only starting to hear about new variants now?
The thing that confuses me, however, is; why are we only seeing new strains reported upon now? Surely the disease was mutating in some capacity all through the early part of last year (it’s mutated at least once since leaving China, which was never reported upon at the time) with no huge effects on the pandemic, so how come we’re only starting to hear about new variants now?
^^ While previous mutations have been reported, there is more emphasis on the more recent ones due to the amount of mutations to some of the key proteins.
Generally speaking the more mutations a virus undertakes, the less lethal it (usually) becomes. Hopefully we will reach a point where the virus may be even more transmittable, but where the mortality rate drops to that similar to the flu and we just end up living with the virus each year as normal.
Generally speaking the more mutations a virus undertakes, the less lethal it (usually) becomes. Hopefully we will reach a point where the virus may be even more transmittable, but where the mortality rate drops to that similar to the flu and we just end up living with the virus each year as normal.
Matt N
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Currently, the vaccines are thought to have a broad enough immune response that they should still work against the new strains, according to some scientists.
I think the vaccine could very well help us move towards just “living with it” without any restrictions in place, and it wouldn’t surprise me if this did cause a mutation in the virus to help it survive and become endemic in the population, like the flu or the common cold. Then, it’ll literally just be one of those common place winter diseases that comes and goes every year, and a roster of vulnerable people get vaccinated against.
If a new strain comes along that is immune to the vaccine, they will simply tweak the vaccine and roll it out again.
Epidemics are very common all around the world, we have learned to live with them. Here is a list of epidemics, which are surprisingly a lot more common that you think.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics
Epidemics are very common all around the world, we have learned to live with them. Here is a list of epidemics, which are surprisingly a lot more common that you think.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics
Matt N
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I know that this is only based on a small study, and is not confirmed, but could potentially be a very promising development if proven to be true; doctors in Israel are claiming that the Pfizer vaccine stops disease transmission as well as severe disease: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-prevent-transmission-coronavirus-others.html
I know that this is not necessarily hard proof, but a pretty promising development nonetheless! And given that Israel has vaccinated 25% of its population and already seen a huge, huge drop in COVID cases, I wouldn’t say that it’s an outlandish theory at all; I think it’s highly probable based on this data!
I know that this is not necessarily hard proof, but a pretty promising development nonetheless! And given that Israel has vaccinated 25% of its population and already seen a huge, huge drop in COVID cases, I wouldn’t say that it’s an outlandish theory at all; I think it’s highly probable based on this data!
Dave
TS Founding Member
If the virus does mutate towards lower mortality and morbidity it will likely become less harmful than the flu. It doesn’t mutate at anywhere near the same rate as the flu, despite being more virulent (so more opportunities to mutate) its mutation rate is lower. All other Coronavirus circulating in humans cause heavy colds.
The likelihood is the latest mutations will start to need vaccine alteration, hopefully they can do this sooner rather than later so a greater proportion of the younger population get an updated vaccine and you only have to re-vaccinate the elderly and health workers before next winter. That said those studies don’t look at severity reduction so the current vaccines may still offer a level of protection from serious illness.
pluk
TS Member
@AstroDan and the other teachers and police officers of the community, looks like jabs may be coming our way...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55730890
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55730890
Danza91
TS Member
Israel have experienced a spike in cases and have extended their lockdown.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/c...ord-of-10000-new-cases-in-a-single-day-655930
Dave
TS Founding Member
25% inoculation rate wouldn’t prevent the infection rate from increasing anyway you need 70% really. The more curious information scientists will be looking at is the age profile of the infections and whether a significant number of infections have occurred in vaccinated people.
Matt N
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Apparently it’s suspected that the Pfizer vaccine might stop transmission as well as severe disease, so that’s promising, if nothing else. I don’t think it’s necessarily infections the government is worried about, more the deaths and hospitalisations that those infections can lead to in certain groups, which is why so much is being placed upon vaccinating the vulnerable.
Dave
TS Founding Member
The preprint of the UK variant study suggests vaccine efficacy is maintained with Pfizer which is good.
The news out of South Africa is less positive, I think we might be at or close to seeing vaccine escape here.
Matt N
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However, it should be noted that even if South Africa’s variant does reduce efficacy, Boris is apparently preparing to pass legislation that allows modified vaccines to be approved more quickly, so we’re not necessarily back to square one... I hope.
Dave
TS Founding Member
Mr Johnson doesn’t need to pass legislation, he has nothing really to do with this other than trying to take credit. The scientists need to make a new vaccine, it needs some testing, the JVCI advise on the policy and the NHS implement it. It’s been happening for years with the flu vaccine.
The issue is we don’t yet have a coordinated way of identifying these variants and advising on vaccine production. This is actually a global process, with the flu the WHO monitors strains and advises on vaccine production. Hopefully with Trump gone the US will put its weight behind the WHO to start something similar with Covid.
So yes... the study which was publicly released today from Pfizer/Biontech evidences their vaccine is still highly effective again the B117 mutation. This is the dominant strain of the virus currently in the UK. I had seen further studies from other scientists indicating that there may be a small reduction in efficacy, somewhere potentially in the region of 5-15% (although it’s impossible to tell at this point) but the vaccines are still highly effective and rollout should continue as planned. Because Pfizer/Biontech is effective against this, it is also likely oxford and Moderna will also be.
There are 2 strains we need to be concerned about. The Brazil strain and the South African variant. What is so key about these two strains which make them different to the Kent variant? Well they contain a mutation in genetic code at position 484, or a mutation known as E484K. This mutation is potentially what could evade the vaccine and lead to antibody escape.
The hope is at the moment, these two variants of concern will not render the vaccine pointless, however may reduce efficacy substantially. Vaccines have to be over 50% effective as a bare minimum to be approved by the regulatory authorities. If the mutations were to see a 30-40% reduction in efficacy from our approved vaccines, then we would encounter issues (also remember oxford averages to only 70% effective).
The good news is, if this is the case and the mutations do evade the vaccines, new vaccines could potentially be designed and produced in up to 4 weeks and emergency authorisation immediately administered. The real issue here though is that all of the vaccines already manufactured become of less use and you essentially have to start back at square one revaccinating your population.
We can currently see massive spikes in Portugal and Spain, most likely the Brazil variant. South Africa has reported significant cases of reinfection from the new variant (although remember we don’t know how long antibodies last anyway). The SA variant has been identified in Germany and also we had 2 cases recently identified in the uk... it hasn’t been confirmed whether this led to any further transmission. In a theoretical scenario, if we could keep these variants out through border control and roll out our current vaccine program, then we may reach herd immunity through vaccination. However it is very possible these variants are already spreading in the uk. A big worry of mine is the SA strain is currently spreading like wildfire in South Africa- even though it is summer there(potentially means a higher transmissibility).
Anyway, rambling over, we just need to wait and see what the conclusion from trials is on the 2 variants with the genetic changes and then we will have to go from there.
Burbs
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It's been announced this evening that house parties of over 15 people will incur fines of at least £800 to each attendee. Why, oh why, did they think it was a good idea to attach a number to this rather than just saying "house parties" or parties of any size. Even if fines are still going to be issued to other, smaller illegal gatherings, I can't help but think that this is just going to encourage a minority of people to get together in groups just shy of this number.