Coronavirus

[Danza91]

I think there has possibly been a slight overreaction in the media (shock horror) to the news of supply issues of the AZ vaccine. It sounds like we are due to get 10 million does of AZ from the Serum Institute in Inida; 5 million of these have been delivered and passed safety checks but there is set to be a delay of a few weeks on the other 5 million doses. We will still be getting between 1 and 2 million doses of AZ vaccine per week that are produced domestically. And unless the EU block exports we will still be getting Pfizer coming through.

The main issue with a supply delay in April is simply that April would be the time we really need to start increasing the numbers of people getting their second dose. And with no surplus supply that we perhaps expected there might be we will have to slow down the rollout of first doses.

We should also start getting Moderna doses from late spring which will help with first doses again.

If you just read headline you would think we are getting next to no vaccines delivered for a month which just is not true!

Most of my information can be found in this BBC News article.

Yes, agreed. I annoyingly fell for the media's overreaction to it, however I think it was because it was the complete opposite of what we had been informed of a few days before, and it was just before the briefing. It doesn't seem like anything major to worry about and the roadmap should be unaffected.

My opinion is the risk should be evaluated in the round, do we NEED to travel for foreign holidays to countries far far behind in their vaccination programs than we are? Is it worth the risk?
Why not just sit this year out and holiday at home? We are potentially in such a good position come the end of April why put that at risk so Barbra can have her two weeks in Benidorm?
Your right though Dave, this virus won’t go away however history of previous coronavirus show in the end it will weaken as we become more immune to it, the vaccine has just speeded that up hopefully.

Not all travel is for a holiday. In my company, last year we had several big jobs booked in which required overseas travel. All binned.

The virus isn't going anywhere, when other countries, particularly European, have vaccinated their most vulnerable (which account for 99% of hospitalisations and deaths) it should start up again. As soon as I am allowed to travel I will be, I've already wasted a year. Need is subjective.

 

[BigT]

There is nothing stopping you travelling for work even now, I’ve just returned from Finland.
It’s not completely straight forward like before but it is still possible.

I’m afraid that attitude of as soon as I’m allowed I will be is why it should remain banned for the foreseeable, it’s just inviting trouble to our door again.

It’s not like I’m not making sacrifices myself here, I usually holiday 4-5 times a year around the world but I’m prepared to give that up this year for the greater good of restrictions hopefully returning to near normality here.

 

[Craig]

I'm on the fence on travel restrictions. Personally, if virus prevalence and the variants circulating are the same or similar to the UK, then I see no reason for travel restrictions. However, if that's not the case (as it appears to be in some parts of Europe at present) then lifting travel restrictions to them is probably not wise. In the same way as we have with schools, retail and pubs opening here, there just needs to be a balance of risk. The government need to react to changes in those countries quickly, not delay things like what happened with the likes of Greece last year. Travellers need to be aware that changes can be imposed without notice, and people can then make an informed decision on whether to travel or not.

As Danza said, need is subjective - and don't forget there's still families in other countries who haven't seen each other for far too long now. On the holiday front too, it goes back to wanting to live not just to exist - a lot of people just want to get out of their small flats/houses and have a different experience from the UK for a few weeks. Considering last year we were talking about everything being back to normal this year, who's to say it won't be the same situation next year anyway?

It's still early days for many vaccination programmes in other countries at the moment and new vaccines and manufacturing capacity are still coming up soon. We weren't even locked down at this point last year, and considering we didn't even have a vaccine or substantial testing we managed to turn things around for a relatively decent Summer. So there's no reason things can't change internationally too.

 

[shakey]

I haven't left these shores for 7 years now, and I don't miss international holidays at all. I am not saying I will never go abroad again but I really don't think it is such a vital part of our lives that we must holiday abroad every year.

I think leisure travel should be confined to the UK for 2021, but I doubt the government are willing or even able to block foreign leisure travel for the rest of the year, so we will have to deal with the possible consequences when people start to holiday abroad in the coming months.

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[Craig]

I haven't left these shores for 7 years now, and I don't miss international holidays at all. I am not saying I will never go abroad again but I really don't think it is such a vital part of our lives that we must holiday abroad every year.

I think leisure travel should be confined to the UK for 2021, but I doubt the government are willing or even able to block foreign leisure travel for the rest of the year, so we will have to deal with the possible consequences when people start to holiday abroad in the coming months.

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That's fine for you personally if you're happy to holiday in the UK. But for others, it's an opportunity to get away with friends and/or family and enjoy some guaranteed sunshine or another culture which they enjoy. I enjoy holidays in both the UK and abroad, and if there is an opportunity to do so then I'll absolutely be heading abroad. But, at the same time I accept that it should only be when the risk is equal to or less than the current risk in the UK. And if vaccinated status comes into play for the UK allowing travel, then that should only be once everyone has been offered it.

 

[Dave]

I haven't left these shores for 7 years now, and I don't miss international holidays at all. I am not saying I will never go abroad again but I really don't think it is such a vital part of our lives that we must holiday abroad every year.

I think leisure travel should be confined to the UK for 2021, but I doubt the government are willing or even able to block foreign travel, so we will have to deal with the possible consequences when people start to holiday abroad in the coming months.

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See this is what I am talking about, you have chosen to not go abroad for 7 years, for you this is a reasonable restriction, but there are likely things you love that you want to be able to do but others couldn’t give a monkeys about.

For example I personally think football should be banned, even without the crowds in the stadium we have seen multiple idiotic scenes when teams win and their supporters gather around the ground. I also have no interest in shops reopening, I think they are a big vector for the virus and I am happy with online shopping. But there are lots of people who would be devastated if either of those things where not permitted for the rest of 2021.

For me although I can tolerate another year staying on this wet island I would take foreign travel above both those things. This is why the decision to unlock should not be based on the popularity of the activity but upon its risk/ benefit assessment.

 

[shakey]

See this is what I am talking about, you have chosen to not go abroad for 7 years, for you this is a reasonable restriction, but there are likely things you love that you want to be able to do but others couldn’t give a monkeys about.

For example I personally think football should be banned, even without the crowds in the stadium we have seen multiple idiotic scenes when teams win and their supporters gather around the ground. I also have no interest in shops reopening, I think they are a big vector for the virus and I am happy with online shopping. But there are lots of people who would be devastated if either of those things where not permitted for the rest of 2021.

For me although I can tolerate another year staying on this wet island I would take foreign travel above both those things. This is why the decision to unlock should not be based on the popularity of the activity but upon its risk/ benefit assessment.

I admit - it is no skin off my nose so to speak - if we are never allowed to leave the UK again, although I appreciate that many people like their 2 weeks getting sun burnt every year, but I don't think it is an unreasonable thing for people to stay in the UK this year. And on the plus side most families will save thousands in doing so.

We all like doing different things and we have all had to make sacrifices in the last 12 months. Hopefully by the summer of 2022 things will be back to some sort of normality and we can all enjoy the things we were taking for granted up until a year ago.

 

[BigT]

I can accept foreign holidays if the the risk is more or less the same and vaccination levels are equal, what I really don’t trust is any governments judging of that risk when under pressure from the likes of Mr Ryanair who still bleats on about 80% plus of flights flying normally by the summer and his disgraceful jab and go advert which has now thankfully been banned.

 

[Dave]

Now one of the things that’s interesting and I will think will stop foreign travel this year is the SA variant is starting to get a foothold on mainland Europe. Couple that with the pathetic vaccination program SAGE advisors seem to be briefing in the press today against foreign travel in 2021.

So I suspect people’s passports will continue to gather dust for the foreseeable future.

 

[GaryH]

Wonder if travel will be not advised to Europe however further afield may be allowed (eg. Caribbean)

 

[Danza91]

Right now it looks more likely you'll be able to go the States in August than mainland Europe.

 

[Matt N]

With all this talk of a third wave starting in mainland Europe, a lot of scientists are worried that this will spread to the UK and cause exponential case growth once again within weeks, as in the first and second waves, Britain tended to parallel Europe in terms of case numbers within a couple of weeks.

But I had a thought. A lot of the case rises in Europe are apparently being triggered by the UK variant gaining a foothold on the continent, as well as the South Africa variant. In some European countries, the South Africa variant now makes up 5-10% of positive tests, while we’ve only had 371 total cases of it so far, and the number of current cases of the SA variant in Britain has actually substantially decreased compared to a month or so ago.

So my question is; is it possible that the trend has reversed, and that Europe is now following the UK in terms of case rates? When we were really struggling with the UK variant in December/January, Europe still had quite low amounts of it on the whole, and still seemed relatively OK compared to us, so is it a possibility that instead of Europe foreshadowing things that might happen here in a few weeks’ time, Europe is now experiencing things that happened to us a few weeks/months ago? Especially given that both the prevalence of the SA variant in Britain is a little lower than in Europe, and that Britain’s vaccination rate is currently a little higher?

I’m no epidemiologist, but from what I know and what seems to be happening here, I can certainly see reasons why Britain might not necessarily be in for another wave like we’re allegedly seeing in Europe.

 

[BigT]

With all this talk of a third wave starting in mainland Europe, a lot of scientists are worried that this will spread to the UK and cause exponential case growth once again within weeks, as in the first and second waves, Britain tended to parallel Europe in terms of case numbers within a couple of weeks.

But I had a thought. A lot of the case rises in Europe are apparently being triggered by the UK variant gaining a foothold on the continent, as well as the South Africa variant. In some European countries, the South Africa variant now makes up 5-10% of positive tests, while we’ve only had 371 total cases of it so far, and the number of current cases of the SA variant in Britain has actually substantially decreased compared to a month or so ago.

So my question is; is it possible that the trend has reversed, and that Europe is now following the UK in terms of case rates? When we were really struggling with the UK variant in December/January, Europe still had quite low amounts of it on the whole, and still seemed relatively OK compared to us, so is it a possibility that instead of Europe foreshadowing things that might happen here in a few weeks’ time, Europe is now experiencing things that happened to us a few weeks/months ago? Especially given that both the prevalence of the SA variant in Britain is a little lower than in Europe, and that Britain’s vaccination rate is currently a little higher?

I’m no epidemiologist, but from what I know and what seems to be happening here, I can certainly see reasons why Britain might not necessarily be in for another wave like we’re allegedly seeing in Europe.

I kind of agree, I think we already had the third wave almost straight after the second wave due to the what Europe calls the UK strain.
What I don’t understand is why we haven’t reciprocated the action France did to our ports in December and banned all truck drivers unless they have a negative test.
Europe right now has the same position we had in January, low vaccination numbers and a reptant strain that is out of control.

 

[shakey]

Waves, if you want to call them that, have been directly connected to lock downs. When a country relaxes restrictions then cases rise. When the UK starts to relax its current restrictions I would expect the R number to go over 1 again and cases will rise again.

We just have to hope that the UKs excellent vaxine roll out is enough to keep the death rate at a level that doesn't require further lock downs.

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[Dave]

I kind of agree, I think we already had the third wave almost straight after the second wave due to the what Europe calls the UK strain.
What I don’t understand is why we haven’t reciprocated the action France did to our ports in December and banned all truck drivers unless they have a negative test.
Europe right now has the same position we had in January, low vaccination numbers and a reptant strain that is out of control.

I thought all truck drivers are testing as standard now anyway (if not I’m surprised). To be fair France brought in testing because we had a new variant, at the moment the strain spreading in France is the same as the uk so I suppose it’s not worth making out already dodgy import situation any harder yet.

As for the waves, we are arguable at the end of our third wave with the more contagious variant. We also have half the adult population vaccinated so by the time we start unlocking that’s a lot of immunity.

If I was a betting man we will have another peak of cases but if we have a fair wind the deaths and hospitalisations will stay suppressed.

 

[BigT]

I thought all truck drivers are testing as standard now anyway (if not I’m surprised). To be fair France brought in testing because we had a new variant, at the moment the strain spreading in France is the same as the uk so I suppose it’s not worth making out already dodgy import situation any harder yet.

As for the waves, we are arguable at the end of our third wave with the more contagious variant. We also have half the adult population vaccinated so by the time we start unlocking that’s a lot of immunity.

If I was a betting man we will have another peak of cases but if we have a fair wind the deaths and hospitalisations will stay suppressed.

To be honest with you I was surprised as well when a lorry driver told me today that they need a clear test to travel from the Uk but nothing to come back in.
All of those polish drivers coming from Poland and no test before they enter, absolute nuts.

 

[Dave]

To be honest with you I was surprised as well when a lorry driver told me today that they need a clear test to travel from the Uk but nothing to come back in.
All of those polish drivers coming from Poland and no test before they enter, absolute nuts.

I would agree, I suspect it’s because imports are already pressured in some sectors (some medical equipment we recently ordered has been stuck at the border for 2 weeks now) and they don’t dare add anymore complexity.

Or it’s just a dumb decision.

 

[delta79]

I wonder why they are not testing on route. Test on the ferry or tunnel freight shuttles.
If they test positive then the tractor unit and driver is quarantined.
They can drop the trailer for another driver and tractor unit to finish the delivery.

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[Matt N]

Interestingly, the government is apparently devising a “traffic light” system for foreign travel, where the extent of measures people need to take upon returning from a destination depends upon a number of factors, including case rates and new variants: https://www.ft.com/content/a9817c71-9f22-4e00-91b0-fb7e95e6cf06

I think this is a nice compromise provided they’re able to effectively keep variants from spreading and trace anyone who returns from red list countries to make sure that they partake in hotel quarantine, self-isolation or whatever’s required by then. The government has admittedly been doing this incredibly well, so I have faith that it should work.

 

[BigT]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56475807

This needs nipping in the bud and fast, there is not a hoping hell that majority of people will entertain face masks and social distancing for the rest of this year let alone “for years”.
Once control has been given it’s getting harder to get back, I’m no conspicuous but it’s getting harder to argue against when you have clowns like this given air time.