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Coronavirus

Coronavirus - The Poll

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I hate to say it but as soon as lockdown is over and government support finishes, I expect to see a significant number of companies (especially those linked to hospitality and physical retail stores) go out of business.
 
And yet they're only making contingency plans for extending rules past June 21st when it would've arguably been more pragmatic and prudent to have done so a while before now.
 
From what I can see...

...over 75% of the population are vaccinated

...no one following social distancing guidelines

...it was mentioned on BBC breakfast news that the majority of case rises are now amongst children

...hospital and death rates are still low

...Boris will be driven by the data his determine dates

Unless we suddenly see a significant rise in vaccinated people hospitalised or dying, I can only see that we will continue to end the lockdown on the 21st of June. We might still end up with social distancing and face mask wearing for a while. The worst case scenario will be delaying the lifting of the restrictions for a couple of weeks, but I doubt it. With people not following the current rules, I personally can see delaying lifting of the restrictions will make much of a difference
 
My gut feeling is they will hold off some restrictions to get more people double vaccinated as this strain seems to need both jabs plus 3 weeks to be vulnerable.

Think some things will relax (no limits on outdoor socialising etc) but not everything.
 
Dave said:
My gut feeling is they will hold off some restrictions to get more people double vaccinated as this strain seems to need both jabs plus 3 weeks to be vulnerable.

Think some things will relax (no limits on outdoor socialising etc) but not everything.
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I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the 1m+ rule ends up staying until a more substantial percentage of the population has been fully vaccinated, and I’d say the same about face masks.

Boris is said to be keen to remove the 1m+ rule, however, and the government would apparently prioritise the 1m+ rule going over face masks going, if forced to pick between the two.
 
Facemasks should be the first thing to go, science is still split on the effectiveness of them and to be honest they are frankly hideous.
 
June 21st we need to lift all restrictions maybe with the exception of foreign travel as other nations aren't as far ahead as we and a few other nations are with the vaccine roll out.

Then if you get seriously ill by covid after having plenty of opportunity to get the jab then hard lines. That's your fault for being a moron.
 
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Except the jabs only give 33% protection against the Delta variant after one dose, so it’s quite feasible the 50% of adults that haven’t had the 2nd jab could get seriously ill with covid. Hardly ‘being a moron’.

Seems far more sensible to delay the final relaxation of rules such as masks and social distancing to slow the spread until a greater percentage of the population have had both doses, which gives much greater protection.

‘Herd immunity’ is considered to be at around 75% of adult population having had 2 doses I believe? So not too much longer to wait.
 
In Israel, it’s been said that the magic percentage for cases really stalling was 75% fully vaccinated. The government apparently reckons we could have two thirds (either 2/3 or 60%; I can’t quite remember what was said) of adults fully vaccinated by 21st June, so if step 4 is delayed (or at least some elements of it are delayed), then I shouldn’t think that we’ll be waiting too much longer. Maybe a couple of weeks to a month at worst?
 
AT86 said:
Except the jabs only give 33% protection against the Delta variant after one dose, so it’s quite feasible the 50% of adults that haven’t had the 2nd jab could get seriously ill with covid. Hardly ‘being a moron’.

Seems far more sensible to delay the final relaxation of rules such as masks and social distancing to slow the spread until a greater percentage of the population have had both doses, which gives much greater protection.

‘Herd immunity’ is considered to be at around 75% of adult population having had 2 doses I believe? So not too much longer to wait.
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The 33% quoted is against symptomatic cases not hospitalisations which will be a far greater percentage.

The top 9 categories have now had two doses or should have been offered it so it’s now time to open up everything in this country as normal except travel, anyone entering this country should be subjected to two weeks hotel quarantine no exceptions.
 
BigT said:
Facemasks should be the first thing to go, science is still split on the effectiveness of them and to be honest they are frankly hideous.
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Science isn’t that split, they are shown to reduce transmission, there is a reason they have been used in operating theatres for decades so it’s not new science. They are not absolute but they help.

BigT said:
The 33% quoted is against symptomatic cases not hospitalisations which will be a far greater percentage.

The top 9 categories have now had two doses or should have been offered it so it’s now time to open up everything in this country as normal except travel, anyone entering this country should be subjected to two weeks hotel quarantine no exceptions.
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We don’t have enough data on single vaccine dose and hospitalisation for this variant as it’s still new in this country and we haven’t reached the point where we would see lots of folk being admitted based on the infection profile. Hopefully you are right however as I want the relaxation as much as anyone!
 
Apparently the vast, vast majority of people being admitted to hospital with the Delta variant are unvaccinated, so it would appear that even one dose of vaccine is incredibly effective at stopping hospital admission with the Delta variant!
 
Nearly everyone that’s only had a single dose by the 21st June will be low risk of hospitalisation anyway even without a vaccine.

Remember what was said, once everyone in the over 50 and vulnerable have received both jabs we can fully open up, it was said time and time again to justify the last 4 months of lockdown to get us to generally follow the rules and now the goalposts keep changing again for no valid reason.
Anyone under 50 is still very unlikely to end up in hospital with any of the variants, possible yes but very unlikely.
 
BigT said:
Facemasks should be the first thing to go, science is still split on the effectiveness of them and to be honest they are frankly hideous.
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I disagree there (which is saying something as I literally can't speak with one on), for most people face masks are going to be minor compared to continued distancing.
 
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While the data on masks remains unconvincing (just look at the data in US states which have/haven't mandated them), I personally would rather see distancing scrapped first, this is what is still crippling many businesses and in particular the hospitality and events industry.

I can't imagine how exhausting it is for people working in these sectors. Yet I see people saying the country is open, what are people complaining about? They need a reality check.
 
I am expecting the only thing that will be relaxed is outdoor limits.
For now I can see most of the indoor rules continuing at least until all adults have been offered both vaccine doses. Right now those under 30 (with no health conditions) cannot get the vaccine.
So maybe in the autumn once the vaccine rollout is more complete we will see groups larger than six allowed indoors and no masks in shops etc. But I do think its too early to relax things completely.

The free lateral flow tests that can be done at home should be helping a lot but I expect the sort of people who refuse to wear masks, refuse to distance and want to meet all their mates in a big group are also the sort of people that wouldn't pro-actively test themselves either.
 
jon81uk said:
The free lateral flow tests that can be done at home should be helping a lot but I expect the sort of people who refuse to wear masks, refuse to distance and want to meet all their mates in a big group are also the sort of people that wouldn't pro-actively test themselves either.
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A measured assumption.
 
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