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Coronavirus

Coronavirus - The Poll

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In an encouraging sign for the viability of 21st June going ahead, new data shows that just 2% of those admitted to hospital with the Delta variant are fully vaccinated: https://apple.news/Ape_GNisxQneEs_3jRjJDmA

Certainly makes 21st June a little bit more likely provided that the government can ramp up those vaccinations!
 
got a text from my doctors last night saying to book in so getting my first dose on the 19th, one booked I got another message from them telling me it'll be Pfizer
 
Matt N said:
In an encouraging sign for the viability of 21st June going ahead, new data shows that just 2% of those admitted to hospital with the Delta variant are fully vaccinated: https://apple.news/Ape_GNisxQneEs_3jRjJDmA

Certainly makes 21st June a little bit more likely provided that the government can ramp up those vaccinations!
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Only about 40% of people have received both vaccines though I really can't see the plan of everything being lifted in two weeks happening when adults under 25 haven't even been offered the first dose.
 
jon81uk said:
Only about 40% of people have received both vaccines though I really can't see the plan of everything being lifted in two weeks happening when adults under 25 haven't even been offered the first dose.
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The government reckons that at least 60% of adults could have had both vaccines by 21st June (possibly even 2/3; I might be misremembering the stat), which would equate to at least 46.6% of the overall population being fully vaccinated by 21st June, if we’re going with the lower estimate of 60%. By comparison, our current value is 41.5% according to Google.

If 21st June does end up getting delayed, I don’t think it’ll be by very much; I even heard a scientist advising the government saying that any delay was “likely to be by weeks as opposed to months”.
 
spinba11 said:
It's 53%
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That’s the percentage of adults that have been fully vaccinated. The percentage is smaller once you throw the under-18s into the mix; the percentage of the overall UK population that has been fully vaccinated is only a little over 40% currently.

Thankfully, the government is planning to accelerate the second doses, and they’re also planning to vaccinate teenagers during the summer holidays once the adults have been completed. Hopefully by then, the Pfizer vaccine may have been approved in even younger age groups; I heard that by 2022, they might be giving the COVID vaccine as a childhood vaccine just after you’re born, so that you gain lifelong immunity to COVID, in a similar vein to how the other childhood jabs like the MMR vaccine work.
 
spinba11 said:
It's 53%
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Sorry yes, checked and the figure I found was from three weeks ago. This roll-out is progressing quickly.

Matt N said:
The government reckons that at least 60% of adults could have had both vaccines by 21st June (possibly even 2/3; I might be misremembering the stat), which would equate to at least 46.6% of the overall population being fully vaccinated by 21st June, if we’re going with the lower estimate of 60%. By comparison, our current value is 41.5% according to Google.

If 21st June does end up getting delayed, I don’t think it’ll be by very much; I even heard a scientist advising the government saying that any delay was “likely to be by weeks as opposed to months”.
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I still don't see all restrictions going. I do expect outdoor events to be unrestricted and maybe the rule of six moves up to allow larger groups indoors.
But opening nightclubs and other similar places where there are high crowd levels, no distancing and lots of shouting doesn't seem a good idea for a few months. I think rules around staying at tables will stick around until all adults has been offered both doses.
 
My brother is getting married on the 25th so we are hoping for some sort of restriction lift.
 
After a “fairly grim” briefing from Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance, it is now expected by cabinet sources that step 4 will be delayed by “between two weeks and a month”, with the aim being for it to start in time for the start of the school summer holidays in late July: https://apple.news/AEgF-syaDQTyIlTsvxWjt-Q

The reasoning for this delay is said to be in order to buy the government time to fully vaccinate all over-50s and give their immunity from the second dose time to build up. The government reportedly doesn’t want a partial lifting of lockdown, as it wants to avoid confusion, so many now believe that the best option would be to delay step 4 by a couple of weeks in order to get more people vaccinated prior to it happening.

It’s a shame that step 4 might not go ahead on 21st June, but I’m glad that the government is being careful, and not just letting the Indian variant spread out of control.
 
If there is a delay then I would imagine it would be for a few weeks to allow for a higher proportion of people fully vaccinated, remembering that it takes roughly 2 weeks from your second dose to get any benefit from it.

The data this week is going to be important in determining what happens. Will cases continue to increase and at what rate? Will the increase in cases seen in the last couple of weeks be seen in hospital admissions? Exactly what effect is this Delta variant happening? They are probably they key questions that need answering.

I would not be opposed to a small delay if it meant we were in a better position for when further restriction were to be eased. A bit more short term pain for longer term gain. The last thing you want is to go too early (bearing in mind we are talking about scrapping pretty much all restrictions/social distacing etc. here) and find ourselves on a crash course for another disaster.

Do I think it is sensible to open nightclubs in a couple of weeks time with no safety mitigation? Well considering that the vast majority of clubbers are going to be younger people who probably have not had one jab, let alone two, then no I do not. That would be presenting the virus with some wonderful breeding grounds in all of our cities. Could these things be allowed to open with a negative lateral flow test needed for entry? That could work and I wonder if that might be what the Events Research review will find. Certainly seemed to work for the FA Cup Final where 22,000 fans were in attendance, all rapid tested, and no positives were reported after the event.

We'll just have to wait and see. The Government always said data and not dates, and this is going to be the big data week.
 
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This is where we were with second doses on 30th May, so bearing in mind this data is nearly 10 days old, we're in good shape with a couple more weeks for jabs in arms.

If hospitalisations and deaths remain fairly flat, there's little justification for delaying 21st June.
 
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English public seem to support keeping restrictions on large events, support the use of masks and distancing in restaurants/pubs.


The poll is mainly in line with my opinion on it too, scrap outdoor limits and raise indoor limits but keep other restrictions for now.
 
jon81uk said:
English public seem to support keeping restrictions on large events, support the use of masks and distancing in restaurants/pubs.


The poll is mainly in line with my opinion on it too, scrap outdoor limits and raise indoor limits but keep other restrictions for now.
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It’s amazing how malleable the Uk population has become.
We will take mask off for a short couple of months this summer by that time it will get into winter and the restrictions will be back. Snore
About time we learnt to live with this virus and get on with our lives.
Oh some other people died of other things this week apart from covid.

I’m going for a smoke!


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Is there any point in delaying this? In real terms, what is actually still in place restriction wise? You can't sit next to other parties in places like theatres and restaurant's and some people still wear masks. That's about it. If anyone in government thinks people aren't travelling the country far and wide, aren't visiting each others houses, aren't hugging each other in pubs and aren't in close contact in work places then they're deluded.

For the most part there's very few enforceable restrictions currently in place. There's only visual reminders in the form of poorly worn masks, sanitiser stations gathering dust, well worn and largely ignored floor stickers and the odd motorway dot matrix sign that says something about Covid once in a while. For all intents and purposes, restrictions are already over so the only effect delaying this fantasy is the effect on the economy.

This reminds me very much of the hilariously bad "tier" system from last year and the fake second "lockdown", something which was so crap I didn't notice anything had changed. The only questions that are on most people's minds right now are when can they jet off on holiday again and when can they take masks off. It's a fantasy to think most of the country are still following "the rules", they're not and haven't been for weeks.

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Some of the rules last year (and presumably this year as well - I haven't been able to keep up) have been ridiculous. Like, I went down to Devon with my dad to see family shortly before the second 'lockdown', and the rules said we couldn't stay with family, so staying with my grandfather was out. However, we were able to stay at a farmhouse B&B a few miles away...run by my aunt. We had to pay something, of course, to make our stay look a bit more legitimate. Just didn't make sense to me.

And as for the tier system...Well, I just refer people to what happened in London when it was announced that it'd be moving to Tier 4 that evening. Huge crowds at train stations. No social distancing whatsoever. Sorry, but what on earth did the Government expect people to do?
 
Matt.GC said:
Is there any point in delaying this? In real terms, what is actually still in place restriction wise? You can't sit next to other parties in places like theatres and restaurant's and some people still wear masks
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The main current rules are the six (or two households) indoors and 30 outdoors. At venues serving alcohol it has to be done via table service. Masks need to be worn at indoor venues when not seated eating/drinking.

Most enforcement has been on venues who are not enforcing table sevice and allowing guests to move between tables and to the bar etc.
Like this Covid rules: Friendly Fox pub warned about 'table hopping' - BBC News

I agree that in private homes people may well be meeting in larger groups, or starting outdoors and moving indoors.
But also it seems to be younger people (as indicated in the above news article) who are the worst offenders in venues too and they are also the main unvaccinated group.
I expect the rule of six in pubs/restaurants will remain for a while (or maybe increase to 10 or something) and table service will continue for a while.
 
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