Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Corner Coffee' started by Jb85, 14th Feb 2020.

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Coronavirus - The Poll

  1. Not had test

    42.3%
  2. Tested negative

    50.7%
  3. Tested positive

    7.0%
  1. DiogoJ42

    DiogoJ42 TowersStreet Member

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    It is technically possible to remotely operate the equipment I use at work. But not without several hundred thousand pounds worth of equipment and a gigabite connection per camera. Besides, someone still has to turn up to physically rig it all!

    Not to mention the whole "freelancers don't get sick pay" thing.
     
  2. Dave

    Dave TS Founding Member

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    Seaaonal Flu is pretty nasty and kills millions a year, this new virus is only slightly more deadly than the normal Flu.

    People forget that the Flu is deadly mostly because so many people think they have had the Flu when what they have actually had is a bad cold. True influenza is a real risk to a similar population that is at risk from corona virus.
     
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  3. GaryH

    GaryH TowersStreet Member

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    Flu case fatality rate (CFR) is around 0.2%. At the moment from the data we have from China, Covid19 is around 2.6%. If we look at the data excluding China, and excluding Iran which is skewing the figures, its around 5%. If you look at Italy alone at the moment its around 15%.

    What the WHO are doing is looking at the number of mortalities against the number of cases, which is wrong. A better method would be to look at those cases with outcomes. How many people have been died against the number discharged (and died) gives you a much higher CFR from known outcomes. If we say a person takes 7 days to die from being confirmed as having the virus to day of death, then its around 5.7%.

    This is much, much more deadly than the flu!

    Secondly, the R value in terms of if one person catches it, how many other will catch it. For flu, its around 1.3. This based on current data is around 1.4-3.6, so its considerably more contagious than flu. Remember the super spreader a few weeks ago who infected a considerable number of people. Also, there is the incubation period - estimated to be 14 days but has been proven to be up to 27 days at the moment and people spreading it with no symptoms. So testing for a fever can be a waste of time. Even the swabs have proven to be unreliable hence why China changed the way they count cases causing a huge spike about 2 weeks ago as they also based a confirmed case on a positive CT scan of lung damage.

    Next is the hospitalisation rate for this virus. 14% of cases end up "severe" and 5% "critical". CFR for critical cases is around 50%

    So lets put some of that into figures based on the government saying around 80% of the population of the UK could catch this..

    Population of the UK is 66 million people. 80% is 52,800,000 people infected

    CFR of 0.2% is 105,600 deaths
    1% CFR is 528,000 deaths (which is what the government are reporting no doubt to keep some calm)
    2% CFR is 1,056,000 deaths (current CFR is around 2.3~2.6% based on various studies)
    3% CFR is 1,584,000 deaths
    4% CFR is 2,112,000 deaths
    5% CFR is 2,640,000 deaths (current CFR based on outcomed records)

    This is based just on the UK. Obviously it may be less (or God forbid more) than these figures, but to compare this to the flu and say its not as bad is just ridiculous. Plus lets not also forget the most data we have is from China, and we don't know how truthful they have been with this data. The true figures will come from EU countries, Japan, Singapore, South Korea etc. At the moment they are just about coping with the numbers, and hopefully it can be contained but as more people catch it and more die or recover, we may get a better picture of its severity.

    By the way, the WHO said yesterday during their investigations in China, they did not find any evidence of unrecorded mild cases. Therefore, if you believe that, then this virus is as serious as we are seeing. There was some hope an increase in mild cases would lower the CFR but it appears to not be the case.

    But could you imagine just 1,000 people needing ICU beds at any one time in the NHS? Just wont happen. But to compare this to the flu is like comparing apples and oranges. Totally different.

    The fact the government is being careless about this is just staggering. The number of stories I am hearing of people flying in to the UK from Italy, Iran, Japan, Hong Kong with no checks and just being told to dial 111 if they feel ill is just crazy. They may not feel ill for at least a week, maybe two - think about how many contacts you would have with people in two weeks!

    Sorry to go on, but people comparing this to the flu and saying its no different is just ill advised.

    sources:
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/ja...ign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=022420

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

    https://nucleuswealth.com/articles/updated-coronavirus-statistics-cases-deaths-mortality-rate/
     
  4. bluesonichd

    bluesonichd TowersStreet Member

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    :astonished:
    well after that post from Gary I'm never leaving the house again until its confirmed 100% over and everyone is germ free
     
  5. Dave

    Dave TS Founding Member

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    We are way too early in the outbreak to have accurate CFR rates (they are notoriously difficult to calculate). The speed of publication also leads to limitations in the peer review of these calculations even before you factor in the missing data.
     
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  6. GaryH

    GaryH TowersStreet Member

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    I'm sure it at least hopeful we won't see that many deaths and that we can still contain it but im just making the point this is not comparable to the flu. And I agree Dave, it's difficult to have an accurate CFR while this is still ongoing but they said originally SARS had a low rate which turned out to be nearly 10% by the time it finished
     
    Last edited: 26th Feb 2020
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  7. GaryH

    GaryH TowersStreet Member

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    This however is great news. The elderly couple on the cruise ship stuck in Japan are getting better now and their pneumonia is on its way out

     
  8. Dave

    Dave TS Founding Member

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    I would point out that being comparable to the Flu is not to say it’s not dangerous. People often severely underestimate how dangerous the Flu is and how many people it kills. Most people who think they have had the flu have just had a bad cold. The flu knocks you out for weeks.

    When people relate these things to the Flu it’s to prevent some of the hyperbole that can run around such issues. If Corona virus becomes a pandemic it WILL cripple the NHS (it already is to some extend, I have lost count of the number of emails we have had where I work).
     
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  9. GaryH

    GaryH TowersStreet Member

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    2 more cases in the UK just confirmed
     
  10. Tibble

    Tibble TowersStreet Member

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    One of which is in Buxton - They have been taken to Liverpool and a local school has been closed for a deep clean
     
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  11. bluesonichd

    bluesonichd TowersStreet Member

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    Buxton :weary:
    Im working there next week
    I hope it snows so I dont have to go
    Dont wanna die

    :disrelieved::disrelieved::disrelieved:
     
  12. RicketyCricket

    RicketyCricket TowersStreet Member

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    Going to Dusseldorf tomorrow for a weekend of boozing and thought I'd pick up some hand sanitizer as a precaution. Boots, Superdrug, B&M, Wilko and Asda are all sold out!
     
  13. DiogoJ42

    DiogoJ42 TowersStreet Member

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    Our local chemist has a big sign in the window telling everyone they have plenty of face masks.
     
  14. rob666

    rob666 TowersStreet Member

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    Aldi still had plenty last time I was in, yesterday.
     
  15. RoyJess

    RoyJess TowersStreet Member

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    Tip of the day. If the queue is too long, just cough and say, "This is the worst it's been since I got back from China."
     
  16. IanSR

    IanSR TowersStreet Member

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    Aside from what @GaryH said, this Coronovirus thing has a much longer incubation period too which means once infected, you can be walking around for up to a month contaminating everything and everybody you come into contact with, whereas with flu, the incubation period is just two days before it leaves you bedridden for a week or two.

    Anybody you know that has ever had viral pneumonia, just ask them how bad it was compared to the flu.
     
  17. Error

    Error TowersStreet Member

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    Drink so much alcohol that as a result you'd be cleansed internally already.
     
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  18. delta79

    delta79 TowersStreet Member

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    I sneezed in a tissue whist eating in burger king earlier today. The look of terror on some people faces where priceless.

    Sent from my SM-J600FN using Tapatalk
     
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  19. Error

    Error TowersStreet Member

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    I hope you said "This damn virus." afterwards.
     
  20. delta79

    delta79 TowersStreet Member

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    I think the fact i was on the phone 5 mins before talking about ambulance cleaning. May of had something to do with it.

    Sent from my SM-J600FN using Tapatalk
     
    Last edited: 27th Feb 2020
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