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Coronavirus

Coronavirus - The Poll

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Thing is people are comparing this to the flu, or starvation at the moment. The problem is this virus has the potential to be bigger than the 1918 Spanish Flu - much bigger, and that is why the world authorities are dealing with it the way they are. They should be doing more however. All travel between all countries should be stopped, including ferries and road borders.

We are an island here in the UK and could completely stop the spread of this if we were to literally isolate the entire UK. Of course we wont do this, but given the gravity of the situation, who knows, maybe there will be significant restrictions placed on travel.

I am already now starting to reconsider my visit to Alton in March for opening day.
 
The problem is there is no more capacity in the system to treat seriously ill patients. If there is an epidemic we will need to start mass casualty triaging patients and potentially black tagging patients (the elderly particularly will end up in this group). Additionally those with complex health issues like needing dialysis will suffer due to availability of staffing and risk of exposure coming into hospital for treatment
 
GaryH said:
Thing is people are comparing this to the flu, or starvation at the moment. The problem is this virus has the potential to be bigger than the 1918 Spanish Flu - much bigger, and that is why the world authorities are dealing with it the way they are. They should be doing more however. All travel between all countries should be stopped, including ferries and road borders.

We are an island here in the UK and could completely stop the spread of this if we were to literally isolate the entire UK. Of course we wont do this, but given the gravity of the situation, who knows, maybe there will be significant restrictions placed on travel.

I am already now starting to reconsider my visit to Alton in March for opening day.
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Spanish Flu killed the young and healthy and was incredibly infectious, but unless Corona mutates and starts to cause Cytocenic effects it’s not going to have the impact Spanish Flu had.
 
GaryH said:
We are an island here in the UK and could completely stop the spread of this if we were to literally isolate the entire UK.
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That will be like shutting the stable door once the horse has bolted, the virus is already here. The virus is highly infectious and has a long incubation period. An infected person could have infected several people before they show symptoms. If you understand that doubling up on numbers by 2 doesn't take long before you reach a enormous number. I feel that this virus will be very difficult to contain. My only concern will be for my wife who is immobilised, she will be at high risk for concern.

As in the saying "Keep Calm and Carry On"
 
Dave said:
Spanish Flu killed the young and healthy and was incredibly infectious, but unless Corona mutates and starts to cause Cytocenic effects it’s not going to have the impact Spanish Flu had.
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It's not going to be the death rate of the healthy which causes the problems- the economic disruption, closure of schools and work places, interruption of supply lines and death rate amongst the elderly that will be the issues
 
GaryH said:
We are an island here in the UK and could completely stop the spread of this if we were to literally isolate the entire UK. Of course we wont do this, but given the gravity of the situation, who knows, maybe there will be significant restrictions placed on travel.
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That is much easier said than done. What happens to the many thousands of UK citizens who are overseas at the time of closing the borders? It is UK citizens returning from trips overseas that have brought the virus to the UK in the vast majority of cases. We can't just ban them from the country indefinitely.

We just have to try and contain it for as long as we can. This can be done, the rate of spread in China has fallen significantly if figures are to be believed. Although I accept that China have taken a very different approach to the one we are likely to take.
 
Doublethink said:
It's not going to be the death rate of the healthy which causes the problems- the economic disruption, closure of schools and work places, interruption of supply lines and death rate amongst the elderly that will be the issues
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That wasn’t the issue I was replying to. I’m making no comment on the economic impact of the virus and have already said that this will impact the elderly and ill.

But for this virus to have the same impact as Spanish flu it’s going to have to start killing the young and healthy in greater numbers. Unless it mutates (which it might do, it’s already done that once recently) then it isn’t going to be another Spanish flu.
 
Dave said:
That wasn’t the issue I was replying to. I’m making no comment on the economic impact of the virus and have already said that this will impact the elderly and ill.

But for this virus to have the same impact as Spanish flu it’s going to have to start killing the young and healthy in greater numbers. Unless it mutates (which it might do, it’s already done that once recently) then it isn’t going to be another Spanish flu.
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Generally viruses mutate to become less deadly over time. Especially if it's a new infection in humans- not in a viruses best interest to kill it's host, the selection pressure is to spread itself around as much as possible and can't do that without a host.
 
Doublethink said:
Generally viruses mutate to become less deadly over time. Especially if it's a new infection in humans- not in a viruses best interest to kill it's host, the selection pressure is to spread itself around as much as possible and can't do that without a host.
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True, though as folk are enjoying all the panicking I thought it best to keep their spirits up that there is still some chance of Armageddon
 
I don't know how true this is, so take it with a gritter full of salt...

Yesterday someone showed me a video alledgedly taken inside that new "hospital" the Chinese built in days. It was nothing but huge hanger sized halls, and bare corridoors, pilled floor to ceiling with body bags as far as the camera could see.

True or not, it was a sobering image.
 
Spanish flu came in two waves. The first was quite mild and like now it caused little panic. The second mutation hit hard and did the most damage. Those who caught it first time around had no immunity the second time it came.

The Spanish Flu was a DNA virus. Similar to flu now, it will mutate. Covid19 is a RNA based virus and these are less prone to mutation (though possible).

As for will this be another Spanish flu - it could very well be. The fatality rate is about the same, the R0 is about the same and we now have greater travel around the globe. Could it therefore, kill more than the Spanish flu did - absolutely.

At the moment deaths are "lowish" as the virus isnt overwhelming the health care systems. Although had it not been for China building new hospitals it could have. The danger will come when there are more people in the serious stage of the disease than we have beds for. What happens then? Dare I say it but it could end up where people die at home as they cannot be accepted into any medical establishment.

Talking of home, some people mentioned on the various news feeds they have started making an isolation room in their homes so if a member of the family becomes ill, they dont infect the others in the house. The WHO report which came out today stated that household transmission was a huge contributory factor to the rise in cases in China. While kids going in to "self isolation" from skiing trips to Italy is fine, what happens to mum and dad? I assume they still go out to do the shopping, go to work etc. so the isolation actually doesnt work unless the child stays in just one room of the house and has access to a dedicated bathroom.

I think China has showed that the only way to control this virus is to lock down entire cities in an aggressive way. WWhile many of us complained and looked on horrified at the loss of human rights for many in Wuhan, we might have to ask ourselves is it worth doing this in Western countries if it means saving potentially thousands of lives?
 
DiogoJ42 said:
I don't know how true this is, so take it with a gritter full of salt...

Yesterday someone showed me a video alledgedly taken inside that new "hospital" the Chinese built in days. It was nothing but huge hanger sized halls, and bare corridoors, pilled floor to ceiling with body bags as far as the camera could see.

True or not, it was a sobering image.
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I've read that China has brought in "mobile" cremation units to help dispose of the bodies as the local establishments cannot cope with the amounts coming through from the hospitals. So it may be true.
 
For those of you interested in how Coronavirus is spreading and the rate of spread, here's some interesting data that is constantly updated: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

At this point in time, it thankfully seems as though the rate at which both total cases and total deaths are increasing has started to decrease somewhat in the last couple of days, so on a worldwide scale, we may have seen the worst of it already. However, I suppose this data doesn't take into account the spread in certain countries.

Also, on a different note, I must admit that coronavirus is an interesting one in terms of its approximate stats at this point in time; it is not currently hitting any extremities, but is still substantial in both spread and death rate. What I mean is; look at some of the past disease outbreaks the world has dealt with in comparison to Coronavirus:
  • Swine flu (2009) infected and killed a much larger percentage of the population, but the proportion of those infected that died was only about 0.2% compared to Coronavirus' 2%.
  • Ebola (2014) had a far, far higher proportion of infected that died (I heard 40% somewhere), but it didn't spread much outside of those who had travelled to Sierra Leone or been in direct contact with those infected.
 
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Reports coming in that a GP in Surrey may have it and has not been to any of the infected countries making this the first UK case not brought in from an affected area. This is very worrying if so because it means the virus is spreading in the community. Also another person is apparently also in Surrey (maybe his wife) who might have the virus. Not yet confirmed but in a lot of news outlets right now.....
 
How long do we reckon it will take for the outbreak to pass, out of interest?

Do we think it will die down towards the summer months, or are we predicting years before the outbreak is contained? I think it's hard to predict, personally, because some outbreaks throughout history seem to have been quite brief, whereas in other cases, they've lasted years (a HIV pandemic that started in the 1980s is still ongoing now).

Another thing to bear in mind is that the death rate varies dependant on a number of factors. Age is one of them; in under-50s, it is currently at a mere 0.5%, whereas in over-70s, it is at 8%. People with weakened immune systems (e.g. people undergoing cancer treatment) are also at greater risk. Interestingly, there have currently been no deaths under the age of 10, and I've read in multiple places that younger people and children are at lower risk, so there's still a definite chance that it won't hit the Spanish flu/Black Death level of impact that some are suggesting online.
 
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