Russia vs NATO

[Dave]

I can’t see this ending well, how long will the west stand by and watch this go on, little girls being killed because of one man’s ego?
We stood up to one tyrant, the time is coming when we have to stand up to another.

Unlikely the west will send troops to Ukraine. The geopolitical situation is considerably different at the moment.

Also don’t forget Hitler invaded Austria, parts of Czechoslovakia and Lithuania without much resistance from outside. Russia would have to enter a UN country before America uses force and no other UN country is likely to engage if America isn’t.

 

[Alsty]

The way I see it playing out is Russia take some of the big cities in the coming days as they ramp up the use of force, but the Ukrainians (being supplied with military equipment from the West) will keep fighting from the Western borders and take some of them back.

I don't think Russia will be able to hold on to it in the long-term as they don't have any consent from the Ukrainian people and underestimated their resolve. It's also costing Russia a fortune to mount this operation, as well as sanctions starting to bite against ordinary Russian citizens.

 

[GaryH]

Russia won’t give up. This isn’t about just Ukraine. This is about Russia vs the West. This is about Russias way of life and it’s very existence as a superpower. If Ukraine isn’t captured by Russia then it’s the end of Putin, and some might say the end of Russia so let’s not be under no illusion here , Putin will do whatever it takes now to capture Ukraine, even if he has to flatten it.

I have stopped watching the need now, it’s so heartbreaking, and so difficult to watch. The trains in Poland full of refugees just reminds me of the Nazis and world war 2. Those poor families and the kids.

One thing is for sure though, Putin is finished and the sooner he has the same end as Hitler did the better. I fear there is worse to come before this happens.

 

[Alsty]

Russia does not have unlimited funds. It costs a lot to run an operation like this which makes it unsustainable in the long-term. Current estimates at £15bn per day.

 

[WillPS]

How on earth does Ukraine officially asking to join the EU, something they've been preparing to do for quite a while have anything to do with other EU countries getting into a conflict? The EU is not NATO and is not about defence. Ukraine is clearly hoping they can use this war as a fast track entry to the EU, something which when the wars finished they should absolutely be granted.

The EU is somewhat about defense though, isn't it? https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/defence-security/
(This, incidentally, was one of the big anti-EU beefs historically - growing co-operation in this area or as Farage used to call it 'the EU army'.)

While there is no formal Article 5 equivelant there is absolutely an expectation that Union members would co-operate with one another on matters of defense. This understanding is part of the reason why Finland (which has a Russian border, and a history of Russian occupation lest we forget) has declined membership of NATO.

Admitting Ukraine while the conflict is ongoing would put huge pressure on EU members to send military support and blow the whole thing wide open.

The Ukraine should be admitted immediately to both the EU and NATO should Putin withdraw troops, in my view.

 

[JAperson]

Admitting Ukraine while the conflict is ongoing would put huge pressure on EU members to send military support and blow the whole thing wide open.

They won't admit Ukraine until the conflict is over, this is Ukraine trying to say that due to there courage they deserve it and I have to agree with them. If they win this war then they should be permitted EU membership if that's what they want.

Russia does not have unlimited funds. It costs a lot to run an operation like this which makes it unsustainable in the long-term. Current estimates at £15bn per day.

Yes this is costing Russia an absolute fortune and they cannot do it forever, they are also not making any money because of the sanctions. On the other hand Ukraine is being given money and weapons on a recurring basis from western countries, To me that means the Ukrainians are in a far better position long-term. They may not have all the tech but what they've got is the dedication to keep fighting and the weapons and money being supplied to do so.

 

[WillPS]

They won't admit Ukraine until the conflict is over, this is Ukraine trying to say that due to there courage they deserve it and I have to agree with them. If they win this war then they should be permitted EU membership if that's what they want.

So you accept your previous statement "The EU ... is not about defence" was false?

 

[JAperson]

So you accept your previous statement "The EU ... is not about defence" was false?

No it isn't about defence, NATO is the defensive alliance. There are neutral countries that are part of the EU I.e Finland. The EU of course wishes to protect it's member states however there is no defence treaty although I wouldn't be opposed to one if it were alongside NATO (but that's a discussion for a different time becasue at the moment it doesn't exist).
Obviously it makes sense that EU members wish to protect each other however it isn't a defensive alliance it is simply a political and economic union.

 

[Dave]

The EU was initially conceived to foster peace, the logic being if you align the (at the time often warring) countries economies they are less keen to blow each other up, and it worked.

It’s not a military alliance, though it does have some joint foreign policy goals. Some in the EU would like the bloc to coordinate military and foreign policy strategy a little more (France), others are less keen.

 

[Funcone]

The war might not cost Ukraine as much in the sense that they're being sent weapons and ammunition from other countries, but the cost of repairing Ukraine after all of this has finished will be immense. In a war the biggest cost is often on the country where it's being fought. War is expensive though, and Putin will want it to end quickly, particularly with Western allies sending so much more weaponay to help the Ukranians. Also, he might be able to peddle lies on his state controlled media for a while, but he can only keep on saying that it's going really well and that there's little resistance for so long. Not to mention that 190,000 soldiers (minus the dead) will go home with their own accounts of what happened.

The elephant in the room is that Western Europe is still sending a lot of money to Russia to buy their oil and gas. Some of the impact from the sanctions will be offset by the rise in oil and gas prices. Nonetheless, the sanctions might be tougher than he was expecting, particularly with Switzerland joining in.

 

[GaryH]

Three members of Russian government who voted to recognise the independent states in Ukraine last week have now spoken out and said they are against the war

3 members of Russia's parliament speak out against Putin's invasion of Ukraine, marking a rare moment of dissent

The three members — Vyacheslav Markhaev, Oleg Smolin, and Mikhail Matveyev — said they weren't aware a full-scale invasion would ensue.

uk.news.yahoo.com

This is extremely rare in Russia. A few Russian billionaires have also now spoken out as have all the doctors in Russia who today wrote an open letter asking for the war to stop.

I doubt it will have any impact on Putin though. He must now see it through.

Other news today is that RT is being shut down across the EU. I also watched a Boris doing his press statement in Poland and thought he did a very good job. That Ukrainian news reported though at the end really hit me as did the speeches by the EU President.

I fear the biggest risk we face at the moment is the total isolation of Russia leading to Putin just going all in. RT have been running items about if there is no place for Russia then what’s the point of the planet, a view Putin has shared before while the Russian politician Dmitry Medvedev warned that economic wars often turn in to real ones. Russia is being pushed into a dark corner.

One glimmer of hope is that the Ukrainian President has spoken to China who in turn have said they deplore the Russian action and are willing to assist in any mediation to stop the war:

How has the Ukraine invasion changed the relationship between Russia and China? | ITV News

The bond President Xi has formed with President Putin is grounded in the shared belief that it is time for a new global order, writes Debi Edward. | ITV National News

www.itv.com

This is also huge for China who today also said Russia is a partner but not an ally. China may be the only country which Putin will take notice of right now.

https://www.newsweek.com/beijing-says-china-russia-are-not-allies-1683131?amp=1

 

[JAperson]

Three members of Russian government who voted to recognise the independent states in Ukraine last week have now spoken out and said they are against the war

Unfortunatley these three people will shortly dissapear never to been seen again.

One glimmer of hope is that the Ukrainian President has spoken to China who in turn have said they deplore the Russian action and are willing to assist in any mediation to stop the war:

How has the Ukraine invasion changed the relationship between Russia and China? | ITV News

The bond President Xi has formed with President Putin is grounded in the shared belief that it is time for a new global order, writes Debi Edward. | ITV National News

www.itv.com

This is also huge for China who today also said Russia is a partner but not an ally. China may be the only country which Putin will take notice of right now.

Like I said earlier in this crisis, and you dismissed me, China doesn't want to take the risk of being seen to support Russia, it doesn't do there economy any good. China has seen the response of the west when a country is invaded (sanctions) and will definitely think twice before invading Taiwan any time soon. I do think China will attempt it in the end however they will want to diversify the economy to relay less on the west (something they are clearly trying to do in Africa).

 

[Dave]

If China are speaking up then they must be worried about escalation. Putin may be mad enough to care less about nuclear war than previous Russian leaders but china quite like living I suspect. If NATO and China all take a defensive position and aim their nukes at Russia then although catastrophic for the world part of his calculation must be that Russia will be completely destroyed whilst the rest of the world might partially survive, in which case what’s the point.

That said America don’t seem to be panicking at the moment about the Nukes and they will be gathering intelligence at a mighty rate on the inside of the Kremlin so hopefully this is all unlikely.

My guess is America will try and find a face saving solution for Russia to reduce tensions and end the fighting, if Putin accepts it then there is hope, if he doesn’t then he faces a real crisis and a madman boxed into a corner is a real worry.

 

[Matt N]

Interestingly, China is apparently very against “interfering in other countries’ business”, so I’m not sure that they will necessarily want to invade Taiwan; if invading a country isn’t interfering in its business, I’m not entirely sure what is.

As for whether nuclear war is likely; our leaders don’t even seem to be contemplating nuclear war at the moment (Biden ruled out a Russian war to Americans just yesterday, and the UK government also seems keen to rule out a war with Russia), so I think it’s quite unlikely.

 

[JAperson]

Interestingly, China is apparently very against “interfering in other countries’ business”, so I’m not sure that they will necessarily want to invade Taiwan; if invading a country isn’t interfering in its business, I’m not entirely sure what is.

No that's not correct they interfered just no in an apparent aggressive way. For example the belt and road system in which its singing up a load of countries to trap them in debt while China builds poor quality infrastructure in there territory. China wants to keep it's trade channels open and wants influence and control in each and every country, they are trying to do this as a back hand initiative rather than threatening people, although they do indeed issue threats.

 

[Thameslink Rail]

Interestingly, China is apparently very against “interfering in other countries’ business”, so I’m not sure that they will necessarily want to invade Taiwan; if invading a country isn’t interfering in its business, I’m not entirely sure what is.

The Chinese Government consider Taiwan a province of China which has already caused a lot of diplomatic irregularities e.g. Taiwan not being a UN member, not being recognised officially by most countries and having to take the name "Chinese Taipei" in some sporting events. Also, I would not trust the Chinese government whatsoever, they promised to keep Hong Kong autonomous but they are already taking steps to merge it into China.

 

[JAperson]

The Chinese Government consider Taiwan a province of China which has already caused a lot of diplomatic irregularities e.g. Taiwan not being a UN member, not being recognised officially by most countries and having to take the name "Chinese Taipei" in some sporting events. Also, I would not trust the Chinese government whatsoever, they promised to keep Hong Kong autonomous but they are already taking steps to merge it into China.

Yes as @Thameslink Rail has pointed out China is a bully, particularly to Taiwan who are democratic and don't wish to be merged with China however they are forced out of international institutions and even things as simple as not being able to call there embassy's normally but instead having to call them tourism offices.

 

[Dave]

Interestingly recent data suggests Russia has made little progress in the last 24hrs, the convoy that’s been moving towards the capital is mostly supplies and keeps stopping because vehicles are breaking down.

Obviously they are going in with heavier bombing but progress is still lacklustre from their perspective.

 

[GaryH]

Videos on social media show the supplies which the Russian troops have expired in 2015 so it’s no wonder they are hungry and raiding shops for supplies.

According to Sky news and as I feared, Putin is being backed more and more into a corner with reports he has moved his family to one of his safe houses which has a nuclear bunker.

It’s a live stream but the text is here. This is very worrying as one of his bursts of anger could be to launch nukes. I just pray there are some level headed Russians who will not fulfill the order. With the intelligence be US have it seems like there are people inside the Kremlin speaking to their US counterparts somehow…

Putin is growing frustrated and directing unusual bursts of anger at his inner circle, US intelligence says​

The US has solid intelligence that the Russian president is growing increasingly frustrated by his military struggles in Ukraine, one former and two current US officials have told Sky News affiliate NBC News.
They said Vladimir Putin has been directing bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of his military campaign and the worldwide condemnation of his actions.
The officials warned he could end up doubling down on violence as a result.

"This is somebody that's clearly been caught off guard by the size of the Ukrainian resistance," Senator Mark Warner, the chairman of the intelligence committee, told MSNBC.
"He has isolated himself. He's not been in the Kremlin very much... You've got less and less inputs, and these inputs are from sycophants."
He added: "I do worry that he's been backed into a corner. I do worry that there is no obvious exit ramp."

 

[Matt N]

Do we think there would be any senior Russians against nuclear strikes who would deny the order if it were to be called? Is it even possible to deny an order from Vladimir Putin without suffering?

If anyone ever does, I’ll admire their bravery… Putin certainly isn’t someone I’d want to get on the wrong side of.

Also, would it be Putin himself pressing the button in the event of a nuclear strike, or would one of his officials be ordered to do it on his behalf?