I think Putin is safe for a while, he’s got a really strong grip however when this war starts to effect regular Russian citizens to a major extent I.e SWIFT then something will have to happen. i presume the only way for it to happen is for the military to stop taking his commands and then remove him from office, probably killing him. Although it would be great if they inprisoned him, moved out of Umoraine and then handed him over as a war criminal.
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Russia vs NATO
- Thread starter GaryH
- Start date
Yes doesn’t surprise me, the Russian military has always striked me as somewhat similar to the North Korean one in that it’s got all the weapons but nothing else. It’s soldiers aren’t motivated to fight a war of aggression, they aren’t fighting for there survial, instead there being told by some bloke with a big ego to kill innocent people. One of the high up generals involved will likely have sine influence on putins next moves, like threatening him and there’s always the likelihood they’ll throw him out. I just wonder when that could happen, perhaps when Putin gives an order the military are unwilling to follow, even the most loyal to him.
Dave
TS Founding Member
And Putin has put the Russian nuclear arsenal on a higher alert.
I think Germany committing to higher military spending has spooked him but threatening nukes is a risky strategy. Using them against a NATO country guarantees nuclear retaliation.
If Russia has any potentially rebellious generals then this might push them to take him out. I can’t imagine any military commander is going to be keen on escalation here.
I think Germany committing to higher military spending has spooked him but threatening nukes is a risky strategy. Using them against a NATO country guarantees nuclear retaliation.
If Russia has any potentially rebellious generals then this might push them to take him out. I can’t imagine any military commander is going to be keen on escalation here.
Yeah Putin's generals aren't going to want the destruction of the country and especially not by an accident which could quite easy happen if Putin starts threatening nukes. He's actually digging his grave even deeper. I do hope that if they take him they don't kill him but instead put him on trail for war crimes because that's what he is a: war criminal. I hate to call him President Putin because he isn't even respectable enough for that.
Typical bully tactics, threaten nukes, no chance he will be allowed to use them by his generals unless under nuclear attack, there will be some sensible people in the Kremlin.
A nuclear attack on any NATO country would mean Moscow becoming a wasteland and the sensible generals will know that.
Is it just me, but the longer this goes on Putin looks more and more isolated even in Russia and the more silly he begins to sound.
A nuclear attack on any NATO country would mean Moscow becoming a wasteland and the sensible generals will know that.
Is it just me, but the longer this goes on Putin looks more and more isolated even in Russia and the more silly he begins to sound.
No I guarantee it isn't just you, he's becoming less and less credible especially to his own people who are beginning to see the cracks forming.
Putin isn't stupid he knows about MAD and won't have even the slightly incline of using nukes plus as @BigT states there's no way he'd actually get his command to fire nukes followed up. Putin is trying to create panic and worry, he's trying to destabilise NATO. Fortunately I think the fact he's threatening nukes shows us that he's not achieved what he'd hoped by now, he's getting frustrated and is clutching at straws.
Putin may well try to issue the order for nukes however he will be stopped. Answer this: if you were a general/officer in the Russian military and Putin (who's started a war of aggression and is killing all your finest soldiers) rings and asks you to fire nukes (even though nobody else has even made mention of nukes) are you going to push that button or are you going to organise a hasty response to remove Putin and declare him clinically insane?
But if someone had a gun to there head, they'd die whether they fired the nukes or not as if they fired the nukes there'd be a retaliation. This talk of nukes is rubbish and is designed by the Russians to scare and cause panic among people, he's a clever move but probably one that will ultimately fail.
It'll be interesting to see how these apparent peace talks go on the Ukraine Belarus border today although I doubt Putin will settle for anything other than complete neutrality of Ukraine and the dismantlement of there army which I don't think the Ukrainians should or would agree too at this stage. The Ukrainians have actually got quite a strong negotiating position as they are doing quite well militarily at the moment. Putin cannot risk a Vietnam style situation where they just cannot win and a permanently stuck. The sanctions would then start to cause uprising in Russia which would take him out and I think he knows that, hence why he has now called these talks.
Matt N
TS Member
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Interestingly, according to this article in the Mirror, the invasion will be considered to have failed if Kyiv is not claimed by the Russians within 10 days, as Vladimir Putin will have run out of money by then; the operation is apparently costing £15bn per day: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/fears-paranoid-putin-lost-mind-26340870
Putin is also said to be “furious” at how slowly the invasion is progressing, being surprised by the Ukrainian resistance. He reportedly expected to have claimed Ukraine in its entirety within 1-4 days, but that of course hasn’t happened.
Rather more worryingly, though, the main subject of the article discusses why Putin may actually have pursued this invasion in the first place. The article says that Putin did it out of paranoia; many close to the president are concerned about his mental state, and COVID apparently changed him drastically, making him incredibly paranoid and increasingly insular in his decision-making. Some are even going as far as to suggest that he has, for all intents and purposes, gone insane. His inner circle has apparently practically deserted him over the Ukraine invasion plans, meaning that any decisions made are virtually made by him and him alone.
Putin is also said to be “furious” at how slowly the invasion is progressing, being surprised by the Ukrainian resistance. He reportedly expected to have claimed Ukraine in its entirety within 1-4 days, but that of course hasn’t happened.
Rather more worryingly, though, the main subject of the article discusses why Putin may actually have pursued this invasion in the first place. The article says that Putin did it out of paranoia; many close to the president are concerned about his mental state, and COVID apparently changed him drastically, making him incredibly paranoid and increasingly insular in his decision-making. Some are even going as far as to suggest that he has, for all intents and purposes, gone insane. His inner circle has apparently practically deserted him over the Ukraine invasion plans, meaning that any decisions made are virtually made by him and him alone.
Dave
TS Founding Member
Which military analysts where you reading as I think pretty much everyone was very sure Russia was going to invade Ukraine. They did it in Georgia and the Crimea so it wasn’t exactly a leap to work out he would do it after troops began building up on the border.
I think he is crazy enough to deploy them in Ukraine at a push. Less convinced he is bonkers enough to launch at NATO.
Matt N
TS Member
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- Shambhala (PortAventura Park)
For anyone who’s feeling a bit scared about this; I would recommend reading Channel 4’s FactCheck on the whole situation, as it is a (somewhat) comforting read if you’re catastrophising, with experts in the field of international politics helping dissect and fact-check the situation: https://www.channel4.com/news/factc...th-russia-and-could-there-be-nuclear-conflict
The most interesting thing it mentions is that the UK declaring war on Russia is not necessarily a given even if a NATO country is attacked; military action is “one option that can be considered” as part of NATO’s response as opposed to something that has to be done.
The most interesting thing it mentions is that the UK declaring war on Russia is not necessarily a given even if a NATO country is attacked; military action is “one option that can be considered” as part of NATO’s response as opposed to something that has to be done.
good, he should fail and let's hope he does, I'm glad the Ukrainians are putting up this much resistance.
Wouldn't surprise me, he's been in the office of president (and a stint as prime minister while effectively being president) for a very long time. If his inner circle has abandoned him that means he is losing power, as each of his inner circle will have there own power too. Each person he loses support from is a step closer to one of them or the military or a combination of both removing him. He may well be forced to stop this invasion to survive and even then he'd be clinging on by a thread.
Skyscraper
TS Member
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Hope the team don't mind me posting this, but one of my favourite artists has done a version of Bring Him Home from Les Mis in support of Ukraine. All proceeds from purchases of it will go to Ukraine via the International Rescue Committee (IRC). 
There were a lot of analysts on the radio who knew Putin who said he wasn’t stupid enough to invade because he knew it would be the end of him and the end of Russia ……. Then he did and they admitted their surprise that he did. Even some of his own military generals are surprised he did according to reports. No one thought he would.
I will put money on the fact he will launch or at least issue the order to do so. He has nothing to lose now and I think he is of the mentality that if he is going down then he will take everyone else with him.
I hope I am wrong….
Where exactly do you expect him to give the order for the nukes to go?
He wants us to think he's going to set them off, he wants to create panic, he wants to worry people so he appears to have a stronger negotiating and military position. He's crazy but clever, his invasion of Ukraine was a stupid move however he's been the leader of Russia for a very long time, he wouldn't want the country he's led so long to be completely destroyed.
Anyway even if he did try and give the order (which in itself is unlikely) the likelihood that it's carried out is slim, the likelihood that he is prompted shot is considerably higher.