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Russia vs NATO

Yeah odd that. He might be waiting for the referendum results to come back - though he already knows the results.
 
So he’s been on TV this morning. Key points :

Mobilisation of 300,000 troops starting starting immediately

Said this will only be reservists or people who had been in the army before

Said the west wanted to destroy Russia

Accused the west of nuclear blackmail and said he would respond and he was not bluffing

Reminded the west of the weapons he still has available

Said they would use all means necessary to defend the motherland


Quite a significant escalation according to military pundits.
 
This is very bad news.

I think the west really needs to get China onside. That would be a massive blow to Putin and leave him nowhere to go.

Not sure how they could do that without selling out on Taiwan but if they could get China on board then I believe Russia would have no option but to back down.

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I’m not sure the West will necessarily need to work that hard to get China on side.

Putin has even admitted that China has had “questions and concerns” about the Ukraine invasion, and they have thus far refused to come out in outright support of Vladimir Putin/Russia: https://www.voanews.com/a/analysis-china-s-balancing-act-on-russia-s-war-in-ukraine/6755689.html

China seems fairly neutral at the moment and haven’t expressed a strong allegiance in either direction, with their main focus being upon peace and a prompt end to the war.
 
Matt N said:
China seems fairly neutral at the moment and haven’t expressed a strong allegiance in either direction, with their main focus being upon peace and a prompt end to the war.
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Hmmm, not sure I would buy this, @Matt N ... Chinese media have been very much investing in disinformation to promote the narrative of Ukranian 'naziism', and this has allegedly proved very popular among the Chinese public.

Nonetheless, Putin is definitely pushing his luck here with other soft Putin allies including Turkey and Uzbekistan openly noting that he's now taking the piss. They would be more likely to lend support had the invasion performed as Putin imagined. No world leaders want to be involved or associated with catastrophic failures, and it increasingly seems that is just what is occurring in Ukraine. Oddly, I think globalism could bring this war to its ultimate halt. As usual, it is easier for the Kremlin to project a narrative of nationalism through the media than to sell it to an upper-echelon of ruthless, well-connected oligarchs who still have money littered across the world. They will not want their sons fighting, should it come to that. The more isolated Russia becomes, the more painful life is for its citizens, first poor, then rich...
 
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I think this was to be expected. Did we really think Putin would back down? This is probably the most dangerous part of the conflict now with Putin backed in a corner.

Will he use nuclear weapons? No I don’t think he will because he doesn’t have the backing of his military. Plus it will drag NATO in to the conflict.

He needs to look tough. I’m surprised this hasn’t come sooner to be honest, but I don’t think it changes much in the way Ukraine fights and the west supports.
 
It will change the way Russia sells this to their people. A sham referendum will leave Russia claiming eastern Ukraine is part of Russia and therefore Russia being attacked by Ukraine and backed by the west.

It is obviously completely bonkers but Putin is rapidly going off the bonkers scale.



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This afternoon Putin will formally annex the four areas of Ukraine and put them under the “nuclear umbrella”.

We are now in a very dangerous stage of this war. Ukraine say it’s highly likely they will face a nuclear strike - question is - how will the west respond?

There are discussions taking place in NATO apparently of taking out the Russian bases which fired the missiles with powerful conventional weapons.

Is Putin crazy enough to actually fire the fist nuclear weapon since the US on Japan in 1945 and bring the west directly into the conflict, or will the west do nothing? Personally I can’t see how the west can sit back if Putin uses a nuke , it will completely change the conflict.
 
Is Putin crazy enough? I wouldn't put anything past him, especially as he's ill anyway (apparently). Are those directly underneath him placid enough to follow out orders to use nuclear weapons on a country who in reality has done nothing to them? That's what I keep asking myself. I suppose time will tell.
 
Apparently he is controlling things himself now and not going through his military chain of command , let’s hope the missiles don’t work because I don’t see many getting in his way should he launch them.

Watching the debarkle on tv this afternoon reminded me of Hitler addressing the German people as he went on to invade other countries and make them part of Germany.
 
Will he nuke land he wants to conquer? I’m not so sure. If/when that does happen and it’s on Ukraine soil, I’m not sure if the West/NATO will get involved. I can see them holding off unless this extends beyond Ukraine. No one wants WWIII.
 
Well this is a surprise ….

Sky news are reporting Ukraine has just submitted a formal application for NATO membership. While I can’t see that being approved while they are at war I do think this situation at some point will be a direct confrontation between the west and Russia.

If you listen to his speech this afternoon he is the new Hitler of our time. Worryingly, he said it was Russia’a destiny to liberate the world, that the west was satanic and western hegemony would be smashed.

China and India seriously need to decide if they are on the side of rational thinking or this deluded idiot with his finger on the button.

No one wanted WWII but sometimes you are pushed into these things with no way back.
 
GaryH said:
China and India seriously need to decide if they are on the side of rational thinking or this deluded idiot with his finger on the button.
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China coming onside would be a major development and major blow to Putin.

I think the west and the U.S in particular really need to reach out to China at this point, even if it means making some uncomfortable compromises.



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Thanks.

But beyond the clickbait headline it doesn't really say much. I wouldn't say the west has to respond much at all. This deputy intelligence bloke then goes on to ask for more weapons, all of which would be useless against a nuke anyway so he clearly doesn't mean it when he says it's "highly likely". In fact, it's even played down further in the article.

I wouldn't take this as nuclear war is imminent. The threat of nuclear war is still higher than it's been since the 80's, but one geezer begging for new weapons and using the word "Nuclear" as the - excuse the pun - nuclear option in which to do so, does not a nuclear war make.

I wouldn't be running for hills with a tin foil hat on asking Biden to point the US arsenal eastwards if I was you. That would make things much worse don't you think?
 
I don’t think there will be nuclear “war” globally but I don’t see how the west will just ignore it if a low yield tactical nuke is used in Ukraine. They will have to respond some how.
 
GaryH said:
I don’t think there will be nuclear “war” globally but I don’t see how the west will just ignore it if a low yield tactical nuke is used in Ukraine. They will have to respond some how.
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Very hypothetical though as that's unlikely to happen. You'd be right they'd have to respond in some way, but probably little more than further sanctions and condemnation.
 
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