I don't see a lot of cause for optimism personally. I wish I could offer some hope. My best advice, as I've probably said before, is that if your skills or finances enable you to do so then either get out of the country or at least move somewhere a bit less densely populated within this one.
As for the economy itself, I can't offer anything. Unless you're a banker or own a lot of property.
Aye, if I had the benefit of having my time again, I would love to have studied hard and also learnt a second language and moved abroad. However, although I agree the situation is pretty grim, I do have some hope. Let me explain:
It feels like for all my life, we’ve only ever had negative politics. I can’t really remember a Britain before austerity, cuts and “hard choices”; I was only 7 when Cameron’s coalition government was elected and austerity began, and since then, it’s just felt like constant doom and gloom, austerity, cuts and “difficult choices” with little positivity.
So what you're describing here Matt is the symptoms of long-term decline. Not necessarily the messaging itself that's at fault, but the doom and gloom reality that's the driving force behind it. Cameron and Osborne came in, grossly exaggerated the problems as an excuse to force through ideologically driven policies (although I accept that some cuts to expenditure had to happen). Rather than deal with the issue, they made it much worse. So you've never known a time where things were any different, because the decline has just got worse.
You haven't lived through full-employment, the mass home building of the 60's and 70's, the attainability of mortgages, free university tuition, the fall of the Berlin Wall, affordable fuel and public transport, the late 80's boom, the mid-90's boom that continued for over a decade, "Cool Britannia", the NHS actually being decent, and new schools being built. Heck, you've never been to Alton Towers when it was anything other than a dump.
But then on the other hand you've also never experienced high interest rates, the UK being baled out by the IMF, the winter of discontent, the wanton destruction of industry, 11.8% unemployment, monetarism, the real and constant threat of Nuclear war, IRA terrorism, the Poll Tax, the early 90's recession, Black Wednesday, 40+ kids per class, and no minimum wage. And this is without mentioning rationing and the aftermath of the second world war (the point in time which has had a significant impact on the way we think of ourselves as a country, and something I don't think we've ever truly accepted).
Now I'm not pretending that this current period of the UK being in the toilet isn't particularly grim. This can probably be traced back to the fall of Lehman Brothers in 2007, we never recovered from the economic crisis fully. Then we've seen the particularly damaging disaster mixture of Brexit, an international pandemic, Liz Truss, and some of the worst governance ever (mostly self inflicted). But when you accept the reality, you can see the positives, the hope, the light at the end of the tunnel.
As they say, the first step of treating an illness or addiction is to accept that there's a problem. And the UK is sick and needs surgery. Should we not take great comfort from the fact that we're no longer having sweet nothings whispered into our ears, all lies, so that we can move on and get on with the job at hand?
Look how unpopular this Winter Fuel policy is? It's been the elephant in the room for 2 decades, everyone knows giving money to millionaires is morally wrong. But the political toxicity of it is now being faced head on. The last government didn't dare go near it, even if they considered it, for that exact reason. Now it's being tackled, and that's now £1.5bn less that doesn't need to be taken out of schools, hospitals and the pockets of the poor.
There's a national wealth fund being set up to attract investment which will grow the economy, provide future jobs, and generate tax revenue to fund public services in the future. The NHS has been declared as broken, but the promise isn't a never end supply of cash to put fires out (although I think they'll end up coughing up some), but structural reforms the change it and modernise it so it's there for you in the future as it has been for me.
You can look at GB Energy as just another PFI device, or you can see it as the UK is serious about getting full on into a growth industry. That growth industry is green energy, which could potentially also be a an important future export in terms of the technology that could be developed. Don't like the economic argument surrounding growth industries and are concerned about polar bears, greenhouse glasses, and foreign fossil fuel prices? Or protectionist and want the UK to be independent of foreign interests? Well it should tick those boxes too.
Those homes that we need? Sorry, Labour won't build enough either. But there will be an improvement on what we're all used to, and they seem to have an aggressive stance on planning.
It's accepted that AI is here to stay, and that Industry 4.0/ the fourth industrial revolution is in full swing. But rather than stick our fingers in our ears and pretend it's not happening, the government have spoken of embracing it as part of its industrial strategy to boost productivity (desperately needed) and growth, and it's inclusion in public services.
You know that other thing that everyone knows is needed but is frightened to mention as it's seen as just an unrealistic pipe dream? That one thing that will save the NHS billions and give us security in old age? Whilst there's no concrete plans as of yet, the Prime Minister has mentioned a National Care Service numerous times since assuming office, even mentioning it last week.
I hope you're not too much of fan of your local Train Operating Company, extortionate ticket prices, and crappy service. That's all going over the next few years, and whilst I'm yet to be convinced we'll see large improvements, it's a start. The nationalised TOC's already perform better than most private ones, and the nationalisation itself won't cost taxpayers a penny.
Yes in the medium term your taxes will rise, there will be further cuts to already broken public services, growth will continue to be sluggish, and your local council may go bust. No one will walk out of university straight into their dream job. Rents will continue to rise. Buying a home will still be difficult. The NHS will remain in crisis for a while yet. HS2 is already a disaster and will remain so. Some infrastructure projects in your local area may end up being cancelled.
But is the fact that we have a government admitting how terrible everything is and how long it will take to fix not a positive on its own? I'd say it is. I find it refreshing that we seem to have a government that is no longer accepting the status quo. For the first time in my adult life, we seem to be facing facts. Even in the economic booms of the later Major, and all of the Blair years, which I personally found was a great time to be alive, there were still sacred norms that weren't tackled. Long term issues not faced in to. Things kicked into the long grass.
But all this preliminary wrecking ball stuff (mostly words at the moment) is new (Liz Truss doesn't count, that was just an attempt to resserect Thatcher in a different century). I like it! Of course it remains to be seen if anything works, and I'm still not totally convinced, check back in 2034. But at least they're doing unpopular stuff that we all knew in our heart of hearts needed doing. That's what gives me hope, not just accepting terminal decline and that things have to be as they've always been.
Does that not give off a positive vibe? Is it just me? Or do we want to continue burying our heads in the sand as to not cause immediate upset and emotional distress? You all know it's not like me to have a positive outlook, but I kind of do at the moment!