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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Jb85
- Start date
Christ, I wish people would shut up about comparing this to the flu. ITS NOT THE FLU and is over 34 times more deadly. Not only that it puts over 20% of infected people in hospital.
Yeah at the moment flu has killed more than this virus. At the moment being the key words here......
Yeah at the moment flu has killed more than this virus. At the moment being the key words here......
Dave
TS Founding Member
FFP3 masks don’t work for everyone and require fit testing to be sure. They also require accurate wearing and are quite frankly unpleasant over extended periods of wear (trust me). They definitely don’t work if you have facial hair. I would STRONGLY advise against anyone buying these as it likely won’t help and takes away stock from health care settings where it is needed.
Surgical masks are pretty pointless, the likely injection route will be mostly hand to face from surface contamination so the mask won’t help
You are still obsessed with numbers that currently mean nothing, we don’t know the fatality rate at present (because we don’t have good epidemiology on mild cases).
How are you calculating hospital admission rate, by those who attend isolation hospitals or those who are medically required to be admitted (because in the early stages all proven cases where getting admitted for isolation regardless of severity).
You basing you clinical outcomes globally or for health economies similar to the UK? Currently your chance of death due to a range of illnesses increases and decreases based on geography.
As you pointed out there are likely multiple strains of the virus, have you mapped likely transmission profiles for various strains and have enough data to model the likely dominant strain?
Health statistics are full of bias and confounding factors, this is why currently the data is moving wildly around the place. You keep wanting to claim fact when you have none, and unless you understand the peer review process then taking individual academic articles on their own is really ill advised.
Covid is not a H1 virus, but like Corona virus’s H1 virus transmit similarly and have variable transmission and fatality characteristics. They also have similar at risk patient groups for most strains. As has been pointed out the estimated fatality rate in the west for corona is about 1%, in general the mortality rate drops over time as more mild cases get identified.
Panic is going to be the disaster in this pandemic.
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Benjsh
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There's already signs of it slowing in China dramatically. And the death rate has been under 1% globally. It's 3.4% in China isn't it where it originated?
8-9 thousand people die every year in UK from alcohol related deaths just to put this in perspective.
DiogoJ42
TS Member
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The shuttle bus I get to work is usually filled with Chinese students. They all wear facemasks anyway, as a fashion thing. When will these morons learn that wearing a mask does nothing to stop you catching anything, and just makes everyone think you are filled with plague?
Matt N
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Yes; the report that @GaryH shared said that it spreads less efficiently than flu, and it's much harder to get if you haven't been in contact with someone who has symptoms.
All we as citizens can currently do is follow Public Health England's guidelines. Personally, I'm washing my hands for a lengthy period of time under hot water and sneezing/coughing into my elbow (I don't often carry tissues, but all of the health advice suggests that the elbow is the next best thing) to try and prevent the spread of the virus.
As for China, I saw online that the recent days have been the slowest in terms of new cases since mid-January, which definitely implies that they could be past the worst of it. I also heard on the news that "a dozen" of our cases in Britain have now recovered, so that would imply that we only have 73 active cases. 34 in one day is still a worryingly substantial jump, though...
In terms of comparisons to flu; this is most definitely proving far more deadly than flu, but quite a bit less contagious. The WHO have said that it spreads far less efficiently than flu.
All we as citizens can currently do is follow Public Health England's guidelines. Personally, I'm washing my hands for a lengthy period of time under hot water and sneezing/coughing into my elbow (I don't often carry tissues, but all of the health advice suggests that the elbow is the next best thing) to try and prevent the spread of the virus.
As for China, I saw online that the recent days have been the slowest in terms of new cases since mid-January, which definitely implies that they could be past the worst of it. I also heard on the news that "a dozen" of our cases in Britain have now recovered, so that would imply that we only have 73 active cases. 34 in one day is still a worryingly substantial jump, though...
In terms of comparisons to flu; this is most definitely proving far more deadly than flu, but quite a bit less contagious. The WHO have said that it spreads far less efficiently than flu.
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Thameslink Rail
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Citation needed
DiogoJ42
TS Member
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Must be true.... I read it on Above Top Secret!
Dave
TS Founding Member
I wasn’t referring to Gary H or his previous posts, my post was pointing out how the numbers are shifting as more data becomes available.
bluesonichd
TS Member
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/coronavirus-2000-cruise-ship-passengers-21631745
Coronavirus: 2,000 cruise ship passengers quarantined after tourist catches killer bug
Gotta love the Mirror to keep the panic level high
Killer bug !
Coronavirus: 2,000 cruise ship passengers quarantined after tourist catches killer bug
Gotta love the Mirror to keep the panic level high
Killer bug !
I don't understand the WHO saying this isn't as contagious as flu when all the evidence and even scientists are telling them otherwise. So far we see that the R0 for this is anything from 3 to 6. Flu is about 2 at the most.
Just look at the way it spread through the cruise ship in Japan.
Was reading a report this evening from Singapore who were looking at how this spreads. They found it present that faeces , bit also worryingly being expelled through air vents from the room with the infected person in it. That may explain how it went through the cruise ship. It also lasts longer on surfaces than flu. So in terms of transmission, everyone seems to think the WHO are wrong on this .
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/ja...m=social&utm_term=030420#.Xl_b-v5iVp8.twitter
In terms of figures coming out of China let's bear in mind that cities are still in lock down, restrictions on movements and many people still not in work so it's no wonder infections are down. There have announced getting people back to work in the next week or so and it will then be interesting to see if they climb again.
What is concerning though is that the CFR in China has gone up again and it's now approaching 4%. That's worrying as we should expect it to drop given more cases are discovered and more people recover.
Anyway, my biggest concerns are these.
1. People not taking this seriously enough and contributing to the spread
2. This :
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/03/icu-doctor-nhs-coronavirus-pandemic-hospitals
Maybe I should also add that I've just discovered in the new figures are a number of people from 10 minutes down the road from where I live who now been confirmed with the virus. Great
Just look at the way it spread through the cruise ship in Japan.
Was reading a report this evening from Singapore who were looking at how this spreads. They found it present that faeces , bit also worryingly being expelled through air vents from the room with the infected person in it. That may explain how it went through the cruise ship. It also lasts longer on surfaces than flu. So in terms of transmission, everyone seems to think the WHO are wrong on this .
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/ja...m=social&utm_term=030420#.Xl_b-v5iVp8.twitter
In terms of figures coming out of China let's bear in mind that cities are still in lock down, restrictions on movements and many people still not in work so it's no wonder infections are down. There have announced getting people back to work in the next week or so and it will then be interesting to see if they climb again.
What is concerning though is that the CFR in China has gone up again and it's now approaching 4%. That's worrying as we should expect it to drop given more cases are discovered and more people recover.
Anyway, my biggest concerns are these.
1. People not taking this seriously enough and contributing to the spread
2. This :
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/03/icu-doctor-nhs-coronavirus-pandemic-hospitals
Maybe I should also add that I've just discovered in the new figures are a number of people from 10 minutes down the road from where I live who now been confirmed with the virus. Great
Plastic Person
TS Member
Gary, your sources all over the place. You're taking advice from some bloke on Twitter with 73 followers who identifies as a 'scientist'. I am delighted to inform you/very sorry to inform you, that I am afraid that in this case, you are probably not going to die.
Matt N
TS Member
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If there's anyone to trust in this scenario, it's the WHO. And they've determined a worldwide CFR of 3.4% (likely varies depending on country/age, alongside other factors), and they also said that from their evidence, it did not spread as efficiently as flu. By that, they meant that only people with obvious symptoms pass it on, unlike flu which can be passed on by people with no symptoms.
Also, it might be worth noting that the post @GaryH embedded is from 27th February. If the news and pretty much everything else I've read is anything to go by, China is currently in its slowest period for the virus' spread since mid-January. I definitely think that the worst of the storm has potentially already passed in China.
Interestingly, with all this talk of staying at home, I also saw an article earlier that suggested that going on holiday might actually be safer than staying at home. I couldn't read it, as it was on a paid news site, but I'd be interested to know why the author thinks this.
Also, it might be worth noting that the post @GaryH embedded is from 27th February. If the news and pretty much everything else I've read is anything to go by, China is currently in its slowest period for the virus' spread since mid-January. I definitely think that the worst of the storm has potentially already passed in China.
Interestingly, with all this talk of staying at home, I also saw an article earlier that suggested that going on holiday might actually be safer than staying at home. I couldn't read it, as it was on a paid news site, but I'd be interested to know why the author thinks this.
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Dave
TS Founding Member
I don't understand the WHO saying this isn't as contagious as flu when all the evidence and even scientists are telling them otherwise. So far we see that the R0 for this is anything from 3 to 6. Flu is about 2 at the most.
Just look at the way it spread through the cruise ship in Japan.
Was reading a report this evening from Singapore who were looking at how this spreads. They found it present that faeces , bit also worryingly being expelled through air vents from the room with the infected person in it. That may explain how it went through the cruise ship. It also lasts longer on surfaces than flu. So in terms of transmission, everyone seems to think the WHO are wrong on this .
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/ja...m=social&utm_term=030420#.Xl_b-v5iVp8.twitter
In terms of figures coming out of China let's bear in mind that cities are still in lock down, restrictions on movements and many people still not in work so it's no wonder infections are down. There have announced getting people back to work in the next week or so and it will then be interesting to see if they climb again.
What is concerning though is that the CFR in China has gone up again and it's now approaching 4%. That's worrying as we should expect it to drop given more cases are discovered and more people recover.
Anyway, my biggest concerns are these.
1. People not taking this seriously enough and contributing to the spread
2. This :
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/03/icu-doctor-nhs-coronavirus-pandemic-hospitals
Maybe I should also add that I've just discovered in the new figures are a number of people from 10 minutes down the road from where I live who now been confirmed with the virus. Great
1) The WHO are scientists.
2) Twitter is not a source
3) The NHS struggles with ICU beds all the time and any viral outbreak screws us over. We had an ICU shortage before Christmas, we have one now. This shortage is due to a pathogen but it’s name begins with T ends in Y and has an “OR” in the middle. Also a concurrent dose of a certain exit from key support systems due to political decisions.
The sun shines on those who want to hide their self made catastrophe with a biological one really.