Coronavirus

[Dave]

Being an island could of helped if we had acted sooner, but I fear the UK will be in the same state as Italy and South Korea by the end of the month. 2,300 people currently needing a hospital bed in Korea and none are available. What is the NHS in terms of hospital beds globally? Quite low down the list I believe.

Anyway, interesting article popped up on PubMed today showing findings of the virus infecting the nervous system causing organs to shut down:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jmv.25728

There's also concern now that the virus may cause potential damage to the male reproduction system, though this is ongoing research:

https://www.researchgate.net/public...y_and_Testis_Damage_After_2019-nCoV_Infection


What I dont understand is why is the UK waiting for more cases, almost encouraging it, putting the NHS under strain, rather than introduce extreme measures now to try and prevent that from happening? The government of Italy warned the UK yesterday to be very careful given our current relaxed stance on this.

Be interesting to see how many cases we get today..... 34 yesterday.... I reckon double that today?

A lot of respiratory virus’s can have neurological impacts in susceptible patients. In general if you have a healthy immune system the body isolates the virus to the areas it first attacks, this is why you get the respiratory symptoms (as well as some global symptoms caused by the immune response (seroconversion). If the immune system isn’t strong enough then the virus will continue deeper into the body.

This is why the really unfortunate flu patients can get swelling of the brain and other neurology which can be fatal. As the article points out its an effect seen in other global virus’s.

And trust the research community to suddenly panic about their genitals in the middle of a pandemic

 

[Dave]

The government is primarily interested in tax receipts. There is no way they will limit economic activity on such a scale until the spread of the disease represents a greater threat to said economic activity than doing nothing/very little as at present.

Again I’m a massive anti Tory but it’s less the tax receipts and more the government can’t support the businesses going bust.

Now whether there is extra caution in the UK because the economy is already vulnerable due to Brexit I don’t know but it wouldnt be surprising if that’s the case.

 

[GaryH]

I agree with all the posts with regards balancing the damage to the economy against the benefits of introducing a measure. Watching the Chief Medical Officer on the tv this morning explain it made sense but I still think the government are deluded if they think the NHS can in any way cope with this. A friend of mine in Wales has just posted that NHS organisations are asking for volunteers already, and they have only had 2 cases so far.

As for bringing in retired doctors and nurses, have they asked how many would come back in to service? Basically you are telling someone in their 60s who is in the most at risk age group to go back to work!!

On 5 live as I was driving home yesterday there were the results of a survey which was sent to doctors in the UK. They had over 1600 responses which was quite large given usually medics cant be bothered to reply. The question was "do you think the NHS is ready for this epidemic". Of the 1600 ..... 6 said yes.

Of the comments, many said GPs have no PPE and many have been exposed to patients with the virus. At what point do GPs need to be wearing PPE to see patients? Good point I thought.

FlyBe has just gone bust which will have a massive impact down here. I know it was in trouble before but this virus has now finished it off. Human lives and businesses will be lost due to this virus. I wonder if China will offer to compensate the world once this is all over......

 

[Tentaclaws]

I agree with all the posts with regards balancing the damage to the economy against the benefits of introducing a measure. Watching the Chief Medical Officer on the tv this morning explain it made sense but I still think the government are deluded if they think the NHS can in any way cope with this. A friend of mine in Wales has just posted that NHS organisations are asking for volunteers already, and they have only had 2 cases so far.

As for bringing in retired doctors and nurses, have they asked how many would come back in to service? Basically you are telling someone in their 60s who is in the most at risk age group to go back to work!!

On 5 live as I was driving home yesterday there were the results of a survey which was sent to doctors in the UK. They had over 1600 responses which was quite large given usually medics cant be bothered to reply. The question was "do you think the NHS is ready for this epidemic". Of the 1600 ..... 6 said yes.

Of the comments, many said GPs have no PPE and many have been exposed to patients with the virus. At what point do GPs need to be wearing PPE to see patients? Good point I thought.

FlyBe has just gone bust which will have a massive impact down here. I know it was in trouble before but this virus has now finished it off. Human lives and businesses will be lost due to this virus. I wonder if China will offer to compensate the world once this is all over......

I’m one to talk but stressing and panicking is the absolute worst thing you can do in this situation. Second to that is negative thought. There is so much research to suggest that even when fighting something like cancer, being positive and trying to stop yourself from panicking is one of the best things you can do (obviously supported by actual treatment).

I am lucky enough to have a really good immune system, I rarely get ill. The only times I’ve ever been properly ill are when I’ve let my anxiety take over. Nothing destroys the body like the mind. You can be perfectly healthy, tell yourself you’re not and you won’t be.

I have always been a bit obsessive about personal hygiene, so nothing changes there for me. But keeping panic and fear at bay, staying as healthy as I can and thinking as positively as I can, is how I’m not only getting through this virus, but the only way I’ll get through the rest of my life and be happy and productive.

 

[GaryH]

Interesting read from YouGov this morning and worrying. The peeps in the UK are not bothered about this virus, many think of it still as another cold, or mild flu. As a result in the sample, we are the lowest in the surveyed countries who may improve our personal hygiene, i.e. washing hands more. This is the balance which is so hard to achieve - instilling some form of fear in people to get them to change their habits, but not to the point of mass hysteria on the streets.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.n...ov - International coronavirus March 2020.pdf

 

[Rob]

Interesting read from YouGov this morning and worrying. The peeps in the UK are not bothered about this virus, many think of it still as another cold, or mild flu. As a result in the sample, we are the lowest in the surveyed countries who may improve our personal hygiene, i.e. washing hands more. This is the balance which is so hard to achieve - instilling some form of fear in people to get them to change their habits, but not to the point of mass hysteria on the streets.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/lmu1i1w91j/YouGov - International coronavirus March 2020.pdf

Well I would say it has worked in our office. We have put up signs regarding hand washing techniques, put hand sanitiser out and are ordering it products to be able to keep on top of cleaning computer keyboards and mouses etc. by ordering in additional wipes. Everyone has been taking about hand washing etc.

 

[GaryH]

Same in ours and it's good to see more people now taking notice of their hygiene. Some people have needed it!! Though some still don't know how to cough in to a tissue or their elbow.

I wonder if Alton will be putting measures in place, such as hand sanitising stations at the entrance and exit to queue lines, park entrance, restaurants, hotels etc.....

 

[Doublethink]

Government has delayed releasing todays numbers untill later. Probably waiting until the UK stock market closes to drop bad news.

Edit: yep it's because there were 8 cases with no known infected contacts. 25 new cases today

 

[USLShadow]

Government has delayed releasing todays numbers untill later. Probably waiting until the UK stock market closes to drop bad news.

Edit: yep it's because there were 8 cases with no known infected contacts. 25 new cases today

Better then the 34 new cases yesterday though! Is China still producing lower figures?


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[Benjsh]

@GaryH No offence mate but you're as bad as the media. You're very dramatic.

We've had 115ish cases so far in a country of 66million and of those 115 people 99% will get ill for a week or two and recover. Millions of people get ill every single day, especially at this time of year.

Go and look up the list of the things that kills people on a daily basis in the UK and this is WAY WAY WAY WAY down the list. It's not something we should take lightly by any means but your posts are rather dramatic.

 

[Tom]

And I am not frightened of dying. Any time will do, I don't mind. Why should I be frightened of dying? There's no reason for it, you've gotta go sometime.

 

[speedy]

I'm more frightened of catching it and being really sick than I am of dying

 

[Chessy Shop]

@GaryH No offence mate but you're as bad as the media. You're very dramatic.

We've had 115ish cases so far in a country of 66million and of those 115 people 99% will get ill for a week or two and recover. Millions of people get ill every single day, especially at this time of year.

Go and look up the list of the things that kills people on a daily basis in the UK and this is WAY WAY WAY WAY down the list. It's not something we should take lightly by any means but your posts are rather dramatic.

To be fair, the 115 cases we've had so far is just the tip of the iceberg.

 

[Matt N]

A person has now died in Berkshire, apparently.

So number of cases sits at 116 and number of deaths sits at 2 (if you include the British national on the cruise ship in Japan, which some outlets aren't)

 

[D4n]

I for one plan on deliberately crapping into my own hands, coughing into other people's faces and not washing in an attempt to spread the virus.

 

[Tom]

The person had underlying health conditions. Just don't tell the Daily Express.

 

[Dave]

A person has now died in Berkshire, apparently.

So number of cases sits at 116 and number of deaths sits at 2 (if you include the British national on the cruise ship in Japan, which some outlets aren't)

Deaths are recorded in the country they occur, the nationality of the person isn’t important when you are looking at epidemiology and regional variation in morbidity.

 

[Matt N]

The person had underlying health conditions. Just don't tell the Daily Express.

So they were in a major risk factor group for death by coronavirus anyway; is their age known?

 

[Matt N]

Deaths are recorded in the country they occur, the nationality of the person isn’t important when you are looking at epidemiology and regional variation in morbidity.

Ah right. Thanks for the clarification @Dave; so in terms of deaths that have occurred in Britain, the approximate CFR in Britain currently sits at approximately 0.9% (the actual figure is slightly below, at around 0.86%, but rounded to 1 decimal place, it's 0.9%). Even if you count the British national on the cruise ship, our CFR still only sits at 1.7%, which is lower than the WHO's worldwide estimate of 3.4%.

But I'd say that it's probably too early to make any genuine estimate.

Also, I must admit that I'm a bit concerned about the common misconception that you've got nothing to worry about if you're under 60 and don't have health conditions. While it's definitely true that death rates are quite dramatically lower in healthy under 60s (for my age group of 10-20, for example, the approximate death rate is 0.2%, whereas in over-80s, it's 14.8%), I personally think the view of "if you're young and healthy, it's no worse than a bad cold" is a tad too simplistic. As with any virus, there are outliers. Even though the majority of coronavirus deaths so far have been in over-60s and those with underlying conditions, there are younger people getting struck down by it and reporting more serious symptoms.
P.S. Sorry for double posting!

 

[USLShadow]

Ah right. Thanks for the clarification @Dave; so in terms of deaths that have occurred in Britain, the approximate CFR in Britain currently sits at approximately 0.9% (the actual figure is slightly below, at around 0.86%, but rounded to 1 decimal place, it's 0.9%). Even if you count the British national on the cruise ship, our CFR still only sits at 1.7%, which is lower than the WHO's worldwide estimate of 3.4%.

But I'd say that it's probably too early to make any genuine estimate.

Funny enough I just had this conversation with my partner.

Waiting on the daily situation report from the WHO, when do they release it?

It’s definetely not spreading as quick as I thought it would a week ago, expected numbers to be around the thousand mark by now.

Does make me wonder just how bad this will be in the UK, and whether the two-strain situation is true about the more aggressive version burning itself out leaving the mild Type-S around.


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