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Coronavirus

Coronavirus - The Poll

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I'm not sure this is something we should really be discussing... hopefully, none of us will end up getting it.

On another note, while everyone's talking about the UK theme parks closing, there's a series of theme parks that I'm surprised haven't been shut yet; the Orlando parks. They draw in visitors from across the globe in large quantities; Magic Kingdom, for example, gets 10 times the amount of visitors that any UK park does in a year, so I'd imagine that a confined park with 20 million guests from different places across the world is a pretty good place for a virus to spread. Admittedly, the situation in Florida isn't too bad at the moment (on that note, considering the size of the country and the amount of people who live there, I would say that America as a whole is in a pretty good situation at the moment), but it's a point worth considering, in my opinion, especially if the outbreak worsens a lot.

I suppose they do need to compensate between economic harm and public health harm, though, and the public health harm in America is not currently as large as it is in other countries from this virus.

On yet another different note, it would seem that human testing for a vaccine has begun in Britain, with many human volunteers being paid £3,500 to be infected with coronavirus and isolated in a quarantine centre for two weeks as part of drug testing. The current hope is that a vaccine will be ready by the end of this year. Here's some more info: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coro...o-develop-vaccine/ar-BB10U8rj?ocid=spartanntp
 
Interestingly, on the note of the Florida parks, SeaWorld Orlando has now started cleaning ride seats after every cycle to prevent the spread of the virus:

As much as it might have a minor impact on throughputs, a measure like this is probably a risk worth taking if the park wants to stay open.
 
pluk said:
Fingers crossed for @GaryH , just so he can feel all his doomungoring has been validated.
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Cheers . By the way of you want doomongering, I suggest you go on BBC iPlayer and watch the BBC news that was just on at 7pm where they went inside one of the hospital's in Italy to show the reality of this 'flu'....

I need say no more.
 
You seem surprised that the virus is spreading and people are dying.

You know the virus will spread, that is what viruses do, and you know that a small percentage (around 3%) of them will die.

Every day in the near term the figure will go up daily, I don't see why it suddenly warrants alarmist posts.
 
GaryH said:
I need say no more.
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We can all have a dream.

It's a virus, it'll kill people. People die every day from all sorts of weird, wonderful and often unexpected things, I know because I regularly have to go and see them and prepare a file for the coroner covering what I've found. It gives me a different perspective maybe, but really when your number is up it's up. Don't worry about it and just enjoy your life right up until it ends.
 
A small percentage? You mean 26% in Italy at the moment who have died against those who recovered?

Their hospitals in the North are full after just 2 weeks. They are using corridors for ICU beds. There are also young people coming in to them suffering with organ failure . The doctors are now turning away older patients to admit those with more life left to live. The staff are on their last legs, many infected themselves.

Watch the video BBC news took today off the hospital's in Italy, then tell me not to be alarmist when you consider our NHS has HALF the ICU beds of Italy.

This is also a good read, your browser should translate it for you written by an Italian doctor :

https://bergamo.corriere.it/notizie...za-4fdf6866-6088-11ea-8d61-438e0a276fc4.shtml


It's no wonder China built so many temporary hospitals so quickly.
 
I bet no one is stockpiling this old favourite.
33a5932af71605217d5d28861de9fadc.jpg


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GaryH said:
A small percentage? You mean 26% in Italy at the moment who have died against those who recovered?
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Current stats for Italy:

Cases: 6387
Deceased: 366
Recovered: 622

Source: salut.gov.it

I make that 5.7% at the moment. But of course, these figures are all pretty meaningless for two reasons:
  • People with the virus will either live or die, and that will change daily. More people will get the virus daily and the mortality rate might change too. We'll only know the true figures when the new cases start dying out.
  • People with mild symptoms (estimated to be 80% of what most people will get) might not even be counted if they stay at home and treat themselves.
 
I think cases might have increased by another 1000 or so on the figure that @Alsty posted above, so that makes an even smaller death rate. Admittedly, I think deaths may also have increased slightly, but I think the death rate might still remain even smaller than that figure above.

On an interesting note with regards to the number of cases, the man who invented the pregnancy test is apparently also trying to invent a home coronavirus testing kit, so I'd imagine that milder cases found using that won't even be recorded in official stats.
 
Ok you can't base it on the number dead divided by the number of cases. You can only base it on outcomed cases, ie.

Deceased / (recovered + deceased)

That will also be high however as many of the cases have yet to recover or die, (as you correctly say) but it's pretty alarming right now.

I know it's due to the age of the people infected mainly but in the news story they do talk of younger people coming through as well.

Just can't imagine what the medics in Italy are going through right now though, seeing so many people die and having to turn away others.... You just can't imagine it.

Anyway, better news from South Korea whose cases are starting to plateau without excessive quarantine measures. How? Way access to testing, huge testing capability, people knowing they are infected earlier and keeping away from others, good hygiene standards and state of the art healthcare.
 
In terms of the impact on the NHS... it will not cope. No country in the world is prepared for a pandemic. I don't see why it has to be brought up every page when it's quite obvious the NHS will not cope, it can barely cope now.

There will be work going on behind the scenes to minimize the strain COVID-19 could put on the NHS. However it is not a revelation that we would struggle. Water is wet.

Keep calm and carry on.
 
If we look at worldwide stats, 94% of closed cases have apparently recovered and 6% have apparently died. And that's excluding the apparent mild cases that aren't being recorded.

There is definitely nothing mild about COVID-19. Given that some of those who've had it have said it's a pretty horrible illness with pretty horrible symptoms, it definitely seems noticeably worse than the common comparison of the flu, with a noticeably higher death rate. But I also don't think it will be the apocalyptic pandemic that wipes out the human race, either. I won't lie, I'm very, very concerned about it. I'm scared about the impact it could have on the world as we know it; many in other countries have been affected, and it already seems to be wreaking havoc on the economy.

I'm not too concerned about the impact it will have on me as an individual (even if I get it, the CFR among 10-20 year olds is 0.2%; very, very low, and the very young don't seem to be impacted by it that much on the whole in comparison to the older folk), but I'm concerned for those who it does impact. I would hate to be in the position of someone who has it, I would hate to be a family member of someone who's died from it, I would hate to be in a country with a far worse outbreak than Britain's.

But I'm also trying to keep things in perspective to prevent myself from being too fearful. The WHO has estimated a CFR of 3.4% (and that's a worldwide average at that) and that it doesn't spread as efficiently as a disease like the flu or the common cold (to get COVID-19, you apparently have to be in close contact with someone who is showing symptoms, whereas flu is apparently spread very easily by those who don't show any sort of symptoms). Also, as every news outlet and researcher keeps saying; 80% only get mild symptoms.

I really hope the current drama surrounding it doesn't last too much longer (I'm hoping it'll be gone by the summer, or at worst, the end of the year). I'm incredibly concerned about it, and I hope I don't have to be concerned for too much longer.
 
This will be be around for years.
Will Cary on mutating
Catch it once. Think you are immune then bam!
You get it again
:(
One way or another we are domed
 
Matt N said:
If we look at worldwide stats, 94% of closed cases have apparently recovered and 6% have apparently died. And that's excluding the apparent mild cases that aren't being recorded.

There is definitely nothing mild about COVID-19. Given that some of those who've had it have said it's a pretty horrible illness with pretty horrible symptoms, it definitely seems noticeably worse than the common comparison of the flu, with a noticeably higher death rate. But I also don't think it will be the apocalyptic pandemic that wipes out the human race, either. I won't lie, I'm very, very concerned about it. I'm scared about the impact it could have on the world as we know it; many in other countries have been affected, and it already seems to be wreaking havoc on the economy.

I'm not too concerned about the impact it will have on me as an individual (even if I get it, the CFR among 10-20 year olds is 0.2%; very, very low, and the very young don't seem to be impacted by it that much on the whole in comparison to the older folk), but I'm concerned for those who it does impact. I would hate to be in the position of someone who has it, I would hate to be a family member of someone who's died from it, I would hate to be in a country with a far worse outbreak than Britain's.

But I'm also trying to keep things in perspective to prevent myself from being too fearful. The WHO has estimated a CFR of 3.4% (and that's a worldwide average at that) and that it doesn't spread as efficiently as a disease like the flu or the common cold (to get COVID-19, you apparently have to be in close contact with someone who is showing symptoms, whereas flu is apparently spread very easily by those who don't show any sort of symptoms). Also, as every news outlet and researcher keeps saying; 80% only get mild symptoms.

I really hope the current drama surrounding it doesn't last too much longer (I'm hoping it'll be gone by the summer, or at worst, the end of the year). I'm incredibly concerned about it, and I hope I don't have to be concerned for too much longer.
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I’m dubious of the 6% fatality rate stat to be honest, especially when you look at deadly ness over time, I think a lot of the deaths were in the very beginning of the virus when nobody knew anything.

UK current infection rate is 1.1%, death rate is still below 1% at the minute.

It also seems from a fair few people that although a severe case is horrific a mild case is “nothing more then an irritating cough, and a fever” which gives me hope.

UK is still well behind where I thought we would be infection wise


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